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The Baseline Scenario

The Baseline Scenario
By Simon Johnson No doubt there is still a lot of shouting to come, but this week a team at the International Monetary Fund completely nailed the issue of whether large global banks receive an implicit subsidy courtesy of the American government. Is there a subsidy, is it large, and how much damage could it end up causing to the broader economy? The answers, in order, are: yes, there is an implicit subsidy that lowers the funding costs for very large banks; the subsidy is big, with costs of borrowing for these banks lowered by as much as 100 basis points, i.e., 1 percentage point; and yet this large scale of implicit support is small relative to the macroeconomic damage that is likely to be caused by the high leverage and incautious risk-taking that the subsidy encourages. If anything the IMF’s work provides a conservative (i.e., low) set of estimates.

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Vickrey, William. 1996. 15 Fatal Fallacies of Financial Fundamentalism Fifteen Fatal Fallacies of Financial Fundamentalism A Disquisition on Demand Side Economics William Vickrey October 5, 1996 Much of the conventional economic wisdom prevailing in financial circles, largely subscribed to as a basis for governmental policy, and widely accepted by the media and the public, is based on incomplete analysis, contrafactual assumptions, and false analogy. For instance, encouragement to saving is advocated without attention to the fact that for most people encouraging saving is equivalent to discouraging consumption and reducing market demand, and a purchase by a consumer or a government is also income to vendors and suppliers, and government debt is also an asset.

Historical Collection Publications The Historical Review Program, part of the CIA Information Management Services, identifies, collects and produces historically relevant collections of declassified documents. These collections, centered on a theme or event and with supporting analysis, essays, video, audio, and photographs, are showcased in a booklet and DVD that are available to the academic realm and the public. Intelligence Community History International Relations Cold War Topics Hardcopy publications are available to the public through the Government Printing Office [external link disclaimer]. SASI PhD Research degrees The Institute also supports students undertaking PhD study, with supervision being available in a wide range of aspects of sustainability. Some students currently undertaking SD related research are listed below. Applications for PhD study, and any funding opportunities, are handled by the individual Schools and Departments, but please contact us for advice on finding the most appropriate supervisor for your research proposal. Please also see the current list of PhD Studentships (PDF, 140 KB) in the School of Geography & Geosciences. Future Connections 2012 and Scottish SD PhD network

DAILYBAIL The company also practices dirty accounting tricks like "forward funding," "advance funding," and "delayed obligations," deceptive tricks that hide its precipitous finances from auditors and its investors. This company routinely borrows from its workers' pension plan to pay off its debt. Its accountants then claim that because the company owes the borrowed money to its own pensioners and not to outside creditors, the resulting hole in the pension plan doesn't really count as a liability. - Financial Life Cycle Planning S&P 500 Snapshot: A Sine Wave and Closing RallyApr 15, 2014 Doug Short Before the market opened, the Consumer Price Index for March came in higher than forecast, although inflation remains exceptionally tame, and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey was surprisingly weak. S&P 500 ignored the economic data and resumed yesterday’s closing rally to its morning high about 20 minutes later. The 1% are the very best destroyers of wealth the world has ever seen If wealth was the inevitable result of hard work and enterprise, every woman in Africa would be a millionaire. The claims that the ultra-rich 1% make for themselves – that they are possessed of unique intelligence or creativity or drive – are examples of the self-attribution fallacy. This means crediting yourself with outcomes for which you weren't responsible. Many of those who are rich today got there because they were able to capture certain jobs.

The Spy Who Billed Me Seymour Hersh was likely counting on his reputation cutting through any obstacles that could prevent him from pulling off what is probably the last “blockbuster” of his career. And he did meet an obstacle: He is pretending to break a broken story—and he knows it. Tuesday evening on Democracy Now! Hersh tried to slide by my allegations of unethical behavior.[1] Hersh commented: Annotated Stata Output: Regression Stata Annotated Output Regression Analysis This page shows an example regression analysis with footnotes explaining the output. These data were collected on 200 high schools students and are scores on various tests, including science, math, reading and social studies (socst). The variable female is a dichotomous variable coded 1 if the student was female and 0 if male. use (highschool and beyond (200 cases)) regress science math female socst read Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 200 -------------+------------------------------ F( 4, 195) = 46.69 Model | 9543.72074 4 2385.93019 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 9963.77926 195 51.0963039 R-squared = 0.4892 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.4788 Total | 19507.5 199 98.0276382 Root MSE = 7.1482 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ science | Coef.

Credit Slips Today is the day for filing amicus briefs with the U.S. Supreme Court in NML v. Argentina (pari passu case). Brazil, France, Mexico, the Jubilee Network and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz are all asking the court to take the case. Others will doubtless come in on all sides; then the court might ask for the United States to say something ... it's a long story; stay tuned. For now, I only highlight Mexico's priceless intervention against the courts' misuse of Collective Action Clauses (CACs) in the pari passu argument. A Dash of Insight This week brings the makings of an explosive volatility cocktail: Important economic data; Key Q1 earnings reports; Options expiration; A short trading week; and An edgy market environment. This is a very unusual combination, and the various elements will compete for attention. Prior Theme Recap Last week I expected the theme to test the divergence between economic fundamentals and what I called "fluff."

The Neuroeconomics Revolution - Robert J. Shiller Exit from comment view mode. Click to hide this space NEW HAVEN – Economics is at the start of a revolution that is traceable to an unexpected source: medical schools and their research facilities. 10 Groups That Don’t Flinch Under Fire (And, Thus, Deserve Your Support) Here at CounterPunch we get lots of calls from readers this time of year asking: where are the good groups? Where can I send a year-end check and know that the money will be well spent, not recycled into a fat executive salary or an annoying direct mail campaign? There are many such groups out there; indeed, there is a vibrant and thriving grassroots movement across a whole range of issues. Unfortunately, we can’t bring all of them to your attention. But once or twice a year we devote the pages of CounterPunch to a survey of what these organizations are up to.

Moderation and Mediation using the Process Macro SPSS Statistical Computing Workshop Moderation and Mediation using the Process Macro This workshop is intended to introduce the use of the Process macro for SPSS. The Process macro was written by Andrew F. Hayes. Some Terms