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Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) for long-range forecasts of hurricane, typhoon and cyclone worldwide

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) for long-range forecasts of hurricane, typhoon and cyclone worldwide
Related:  Environmental Risk, Including Climate

Announcement of Creation of Climate Change Variability/Vulnerability Index COLLEGE PARK, Md. – Last year a series of severe weather events including the late-winter storm that hit the U.S. Northeast, followed by weather-related damage that closed the U.S.-Mexico Laredo border, and subsequent U.S. landfall hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria contributed to a doubling of global supply chain disruption and, for the first time, made the United States the region most-impacted by such disruption. These impacts, highlighted in a recent report, form part of the impetus for a new partnership between the University of Maryland and software firm Reslinc. Researchers in UMD’s Earth Systems Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) and in the Supply Chain Management Center of the Robert H. According to ESSIC Assistant Research Professor Michael Gerst, by early 2019, Resilinc will be able to disseminate UMD’s new index as “a critical snapshot of the vulnerability to climate change of the supply chain of an individual business.” “Climate change varies greatly by location.

Hurricanes - FSU COAPS On May 30, 2013, COAPS scientists released their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The 2013 forecast called for a 70 percent probability of 12 to 17 named storms, including 5 to 10 hurricanes. The mean forecast was for 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, and an average accumulated cyclone energy (a measure of the strength and duration of storms accumulated during the season) of 135. The forecast numbers were based on 50 individual seasonal atmospheric forecasts using sea surface temperatures predicted by a recently upgraded National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)climate model. The forecast mean numbers are identical to the observed 1995-2010 average named storms and hurricanes and reflect the ongoing period of heightened tropical activity in the North Atlantic. Dr. The COAPS forecast is already gaining recognition for its accuracy only four years after its launch.

Climate Change Performance Index Hurricanes - FSU COAPS On May 30, 2013, COAPS scientists released their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The 2013 forecast called for a 70 percent probability of 12 to 17 named storms, including 5 to 10 hurricanes. The mean forecast was for 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, and an average accumulated cyclone energy (a measure of the strength and duration of storms accumulated during the season) of 135. The forecast numbers were based on 50 individual seasonal atmospheric forecasts using sea surface temperatures predicted by a recently upgraded National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)climate model. The forecast mean numbers are identical to the observed 1995-2010 average named storms and hurricanes and reflect the ongoing period of heightened tropical activity in the North Atlantic. Dr. The COAPS forecast is already gaining recognition for its accuracy only four years after its launch.

Corporate Clean Energy Procurement Index | Clean Edge The Corporate Clean Energy Procurement Index, written by Clean Edge on behalf of the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) and Information Technology Industry Council (ITI), ranks all 50 U.S. states on the ease with which America’s most recognizable brands can procure domestic renewable energy such as solar or wind for their operations. Retail and tech companies such as Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Target and Walmart are among nearly half of the Fortune 500 companies seeking to locate operations in states with ready access to clean-energy sources. While created on behalf of RILA and ITI, the index is broadly applicable to many stakeholders, including other business sectors, the military, higher education, and state and local government. It is intended to assist policymakers and large RE buyers in advancing policies that help, not hinder, RE development, and help large RE buyers to select states in which they may make RE investments. Overall Results Report Partners

Global Tropical Hazards Assessment Recent observations of tropical convective anomalies have been more consistent with MJO activity. Both the RMM-based MJO index and the CPC velocity potential MJO index indicate an eastward propagating signal, with enhanced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and western Maritime Continent. The spatial pattern of velocity potential anomalies is also increasingly suggestive of a coherent MJO, with a Wave-1 pattern supporting large scale upper-level divergence (convergence) over the eastern Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and West Pacific (Western Hemisphere and western Indian Ocean). Dynamical model forecasts support a continued eastward propagation of the MJO over the Maritime Continent, but with differences in the strength and propagation speed of the signal as the models resolve interactions with the higher frequency modes and the low-frequency base state.

Waffle House Index - What do Waffle Houses Have to Do with Risk Management? What do Waffle Houses have to do with risk and disaster management? As anyone who has heard Administrator Fugate speak once or twice knows, more than you might think. During his days as the head of Florida’s Department of Emergency Management, Craig began to use a simple test to determine how quickly a community might be able to get up and running again after a disaster: The Waffle House test. If this comparison seems odd at first, think again. Yesterday, EHS Today, a magazine for environment, health and safety leaders, explained that major companies such as The Home Depot, Walmart, and Waffle House serve as role models in disaster preparedness. If a Waffle House store is open and offering a full menu, the index is green. As Craig often says, the Waffle House test doesn’t just tell us how quickly a business might rebound – it also tells us how the larger community is faring. EHS Today’s article serves as a good reminder that businesses should get ready.

Tropical cyclone ‘maximum intensity’ is shifting toward the poles Over the past 30 years, the location where tropical cyclones reach maximum intensity has been shifting toward the poles in both the northern and southern hemispheres at a rate of about 35 miles, or one-half a degree of latitude, per decade according to a new study, The Poleward Migration of the Location of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity, published tomorrow in Nature. As tropical cyclones move into higher latitudes, some regions closer to the equator may experience reduced risk, while coastal populations and infrastructure poleward of the tropics may experience increased risk. With their devastating winds and flooding, tropical cyclones can especially endanger coastal cities not adequately prepared for them. Additionally, regions in the tropics that depend on cyclones’ rainfall to help replenish water resources may be at risk for lower water availability as the storms migrate away from them. The amount of poleward migration varies by region.

NEWLY ADDED - 2020 Environmental Performance Index | Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy The Environmental Performance Index (EPI) ranks 180 countries on 32 performance indicators across 11 issue categories covering environmental health and ecosystem vitality. The 2020 EPI features new metrics that gauge waste management, carbon dioxide emissions from land cover change, and black carbon emissions – all important drivers of climate change. Below is a selection of news coverage of this year’s EPI release. What Does Sustainability Look Like? On June 4, the 2020 Environmental Performance Index (EPI) will issue its 12th biennial ranking of 180 countries on how they are performing in terms of environmental health and ecosystem vitality.

That Hurricane Guy's Storm Composite NOAA Doppler Radar Weather Channel Oceanweather Inc. NOAA Geostationary Satellite NOAA Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch LSU Hurricane Center Penn State/University of Colorado Department of Meteorology NOAA National Data Buoy Center

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