Structural errors in global climate models. Posted on June 20, 2020 by Gerald Browning.
Model Predictions, Projections and Observations. Feedbacks. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Climate Model Tuning and Initialization. Uncertainty. Error Propagation. Natural Variablity. Drivers of Climate. CO2 Climate Sensitivity. Notch-Delay Solar Theory. Climate Models for the Layman. Claims that the planet is threatened by man-made global warming are based on science that is based on inadequate computer modelling.
That is the conclusion of a new briefing paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). The report’s author, eminent American climatologist Professor Judith Curry, explains that climate alarm depends on highly complex computer simulations of the Earth’s climate. But although scientists have expended decades of effort developing them, these simulations still have to be “tuned” to get them to match the real climate.
This makes them essentially useless for trying to find out what is causing changes in the climate and unreliable for making predictions about what will happen in the future. Ross McKitrick: The flaw in relying on worst-case-scenario climate model. Whenever you read a media story about how we’re heading toward catastrophe if we continue operating “business as usual” — i.e., if we don’t slash carbon emissions — the reports are almost always referring to a model simulation using RCP8.5.
And you can bet that nowhere in the story will they explain that RCP8.5 is an implausible worst-case scenario that was never meant to represent a likely base case outcome, or that scientists have begun castigating its usage as a prediction of a doomed business-as-usual future. The term RCP8.5 refers to a greenhouse gas emissions scenario often used by scientists for climate model projections.
You might never have heard of RCP8.5 but you have definitely heard of forecasts based on it. Listening to the politicians who make the strongest pleas for radical climate action, it is clear that their fears for the future are driven by RCP8.5 scenarios, yet it is also clear that they have no idea what it is or what is wrong with it. It gets worse. Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: Climate Scientists’ “Apocalyptic Predictions Depend On Unrealistic Climate Model Simulations”
Dutch investigative journalist Marijn Poels recently interviewed leading climatologist Dr.
Judith Curry, see following video: In the interview, Curry told that climate scientists have been acting “overconfident” and have been ignoring too many unknowns and all the uncertainty which the science is fraught with. “There”s a lot of scope for people to be wrong” concerning the future of what the climate might be like, she said. Climate scientists ignoring wide scope of natural factors She tells viewers that the scientists were contracted to be “narrowly focused” on man’s impact and thus ended up ignoring “what may be the most important factors”, such as solar and oceanic cycles.
Escape from model land. By Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith The title and motivation for this post comes from a new paper by Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith, Escape from Model-Land.
“Not Worthy Of Any Consensus” …4 Renowned Scientists Expose Major IPCC Shortcomings: “Models Clearly Erroneous” By Dr.
Andreas Mueller (Summarized by P. Gosselin) Last weekend the climate conference by the Germany-based European Institute for Climate and Energy EIKE took place in Munich, despite threats by leftist radicals. More than a dozen leading international climate experts presented views that severely challenge mainstream alarmist climate science. 1. Among the speakers was Prof. em. Image: EIKE Schlüchter’s findings involve paleoclimatic records (timber, turfs, insects, etc.) found and dated using 14C as a standard method.
His findings show that for long periods of time in the last 12,000 years, temperatures were higher than in 2005. The key message is that the alpine glacier extent was often smaller than in 2005. Schlüchter summarized that more than 50% of the last 11000 years alpine glaciers were smaller than 2005 and that events of glacier growth were fast and short. What do you mean by “mean”: an essay on black boxes, emulators, and uncertainty. Guest post by Richard Booth, Ph.D References: 
Climate Models Have Been Predicting Too Much Warming. By Paul Homewood John Christy has a new paper out about climate models are predicting too much warming: Below is the GWPF press release: Leading scientist warns that computer simulations are unreliable.
Models Wrong About the Past Produce Unbelievable Futures. Models vs.
Observations. Christy and McKitrick (2018) Figure 3. Two European Professors: IPCC Climate Modeling Methodology Opens Door To “Fake Conclusions” …”Manipulations”” Two European professors recently wrote that the IPCC projections of future warming are based on huge unknowns, and do not take the past properly into account.
New Study Shows Climate Models Not Even Close To Be Useful For Policymaking. “Precipitation Remains The Achilles’ Heel “ A new paper just appeared in the journal of Atmospheric Research titled: “Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution“. Hat tip: Reader Mary Brown Though the title itself reveals little about the quality of the performance of models, the study suggests that models still have a long way to go before really being useful for policymakers to go by. The study concludes, “The modeling of precipitation remains the Achilles’ heel of models and thus of multidimensional indices, which are very sensitive to this variable.” Well, just about every major climate index is directly related to precipitation. Thus if the models cannot get precipitation right, then everything else will also be wrong – or at least so far off the mark as to be useless.
User's Guide to the Community Atmosphere Model CAM-5.0. This chapter describes how to build and run CAM in its standalone configuration. We do not provide scripts that are setup to work out of the box on a particular set of platforms. If you would like this level of support then consider running CAM from the CESM scripts (see CESM-1.0 User's Guide). We do however provide some examples of simple run scripts which should provide a useful starting point for writing your own scripts (see the Section called Sample Run Scripts). To build CAM for SPMD execution it will also be necessary to have an MPI library (version 1 or later). As with the NetCDF library, the Fortran API should be build using the same Fortran90 compiler that is used to build the rest of CAM. The following sections present an interactive C shell session to build and run a default version of CAM. Configuring CAM for serial execution.
Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model 3.0. CESM1.2: CAM Documentation. Introduction Version 5.3 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is the latest in a series of global atmosphere models developed primarily at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The notable improvements for CAM are now detailed along with the improvements for all model components in the section What's new in CESM1.2.0 - Science.
IPCC DDC Glossary. Glossary R Glossary of acronyms and specialised terms on the IPCC-DDC website. The definitions shown here are from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) working group glossaries: WGI, WGII and WGIII. Detection and Attribution of Man-Made Climate Change. By Andy May Chapter 10 of the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 Assessment Report (WG1 AR5) report on climate change deals with how man-made climate change is detected and how much of the total change is due to man. They call the chapter “Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional,” but in the critical calculation they assume the natural contribution is zero, so we consider “man-made” an appropriate addition to the title of this post.
In summary, it says that the Earth’s surface has warmed since 1880 and over half of the warming from 1951 to 2010 is due to man. What can we learn from climate models? What can we learn from climate models? Part II. EXAMPLES OF HOW AND WHY THE USE OF A “CLIMATE MODEL MEAN” AND THE USE OF ANOMALIES CAN BE MISLEADING. Study: A new method to evaluate overall performance of a climate model. On the Elusive Absolute Global Mean Surface Temperature – A Model-Data Comparison. Model-land, Butterflies and Hawkmoths. Guest Essay by Kip Hansen Welcome to Model-Land, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls! “Model-land is a hypothetical world in which our simulations are perfect, an attractive fairy-tale state of mind in which optimizing a simulation invariably reflects desirable pathways in the real world.” Here in Model-Land you’ll see fabulous “computational simulations and associated graphical visualizations [that] have become much more sophisticated in recent decades due to the availability of ever-greater computational resources!”
Where “…[t]he qualitative visual appeal of these simulations has led to an explosion of simulation-based, often probabilistic forecasting in support of decision-making in everything from weather forecasting and American Football, to nuclear stewardship and climate adaptation.” If you come and play, you’ll want to stay! New University Of Exeter Study Finds Climate Models Skewed, Overhype CO2 …”Uncertainties Rigorously Concealed”! By P Gosselin on 1. December 2018. Freeman Dyson: A Global Warming Heretic. Understanding Rapid Adjustments to Diverse Forcing Agents - Smith - - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library.
How the IPCC turn calculated numbers into heat « Okulær. Okulær « Eyeing the World – Climate Musings. Model falsifiability and climate slow modes. Expert Climate Scientists Conclude From Historical Trends That Anthropogenic Factors Are Overweighted In Models. By P Gosselin on 4. November 2017 What follows is another paper to add to the list of 400 peer-reviewed papers published this year which show claims surrounding man-made global warming are in fact hyped up. ================================== By Dr. On July 4 in the journal Atmospheric and Climate Sciences an article by Maxim Ogurtsov, Markus Lindholm and Risto Jalkanen appeared and addressed an important issue. “IPCC makes a large mistake” And when the sun again strengthens and volcanic eruptions remain at low levels, the earth warms up again. Climate models got their fundamentals right. This is How Climate Works – Part 2.
This is How Climate Works – Part 3. Guest essay by Mike Jonas /Continued from Part 2 6. This is How Climate Works – Part 1. Guest essay by Mike Jonas This is how climate works. Climate Drivers and Modelling Concerns -- New Science Posts. Applying Basic Physics to Climate · Science Speak. Leading climate scientist Cess admits mathematical errors in the AGW theory. Notch-Delay Solar Theory · Science Speak. The Reference Frame: Selection of climate model survivors isn't the scientific method. Spurious Correlations in Climate Science. Correcting Flaws in Global Warming Projections. Climate scientists can restart the climate policy debate & win: test the models! – Fabius Maximus website. 6 New Papers: Climate Models Are Literally Worth ZERO – Even Water Vapor + Feedback ‘Does Not Exist’ Global warming on trial and the elementary error of physics that caused the global warming scare.
Feet of clay: The official errors that exaggerated global warming – part 3. Evaluation of Climate Models. Carlin Economics and Science » Climate Alarmism Is Based on GCMs and Thus on Nothing. New study puts the 1.5°C and 2.0°C temperature limits of the Paris Agreement into a historical climate context. The Reference Frame: Scott Adams sees through 15 of 20 main alarmists' tricks, still calls himself a believer. Maurice Newman knows more about climate models than the BOM’s Dr Rob Vertessy. An eminent climate scientist describes the frontiers of climate science. Important study: Waste heat is a major source of national warming, significantly pollutes climatic record. Feet of clay: The official errors that exaggerated global warming. The Difference Between Energy, Work and Power – and Why it Matters to Climate Prediction.