background preloader

Cognitive Bias & Logical Fallacies

Facebook Twitter

The Cognitive Bias President Trump Understands Better Than You. Americans born in the United States are more murderous than undocumented immigrants.

The Cognitive Bias President Trump Understands Better Than You

Fighting words, I know. But why? After all, that’s just what the numbers say. Still, be honest: you wouldn’t linger over a story with that headline. It’s “dog bites man.” The problem here is not just that this singling out creates a distorted, fish-eye lens version of what’s really happening. You know who else isn’t as likely to commit murders in the US as native-born citizens? In the past, the president has also promised to publish a weekly list of crimes committed by undocumented immigrants.

Taking Advantage of Bias. Confirmation Bias: How Intelligent People Develop Totally Incorrect Beliefs. Study debunks long-held myth probably arising from the confirmation bias.

Confirmation Bias: How Intelligent People Develop Totally Incorrect Beliefs

Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia. The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is.

Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia

Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive incapacity, on the part of those with low ability, to recognize their ineptitude and evaluate their competence accurately. Their research also suggests corollaries: high-ability individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.[1] Dunning and Kruger have postulated that the effect is the result of internal illusion in those of low ability, and external misperception in those of high ability: "The miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others. "[1] Original study[edit] Supporting studies[edit] Studies focusing on other cultures[edit] Award[edit] Cognitive bias cheat sheet – Better Humans. Capital - How to stop lying to yourself.

Newly divorced, Eleanor Bain thought she’d finally met the man of her dreams.

Capital - How to stop lying to yourself

She was in a new city, looking for a new job and starting a new life with her two daughters, when she fell in love, or so she thought. It’s like a boomerang, when you suddenly realise that this is not so peachy But along with the positives of shared interests, there were plenty of negatives. Sometimes the pair ended up screaming at each other for hours on end. Looking back, Bain says she was in denial about the relationship.

Chilcot: Why we cover our ears to the facts. Image copyright Getty Images Do people moderate their views when presented with overwhelming evidence to the contrary?

Chilcot: Why we cover our ears to the facts

Not necessarily, writes Matthew Syed. We like to think that we apportion our beliefs to the evidence. After all, isn't this the hallmark of rationality? When information comes along which reveals we should change our minds, we do. Or do we? Consider an experiment, where two groups were recruited. These groups were then showed two dossiers. Image copyright iStock. List of fallacies. Formal fallacies Main article: Formal fallacy.

List of fallacies

Relatively Interesting Logical Fallacies in the Lab - Relatively Interesting. Errors in reasoning aren’t limited to just us regular folk.

Relatively Interesting Logical Fallacies in the Lab - Relatively Interesting

Even highly educated scientists – who are taught how to think and are taught how to follow the scientific method – are not immune to committing logical fallacies. Theconversation. What happens to your brain when you walk into a shop and are faced with a huge, ultra-high definition, 3D television at the startling price of £37,695?


Assuming you actually need a new TV, you might dismiss this as ridiculous; laugh at the spendthrift fools who might buy it. And then, very sensibly, you start looking at more reasonably priced options, maybe at around the £1,500 mark. You have just been successfully manipulated. Welcome to the world of anchoring.

Relatively Interesting A visual guide to Cognitive Biases - Relatively Interesting. Cognitive biases are psychological tendencies that cause the human brain to draw incorrect conclusions.

Relatively Interesting A visual guide to Cognitive Biases - Relatively Interesting

Such biases are thought to be a form of “cognitive shortcut”, often based on rules of thumb, and include errors in statistical judgement, social attribution, and memory. These biases are a common outcome of human thought, and often drastically skew the reliability of anecdotal and legal evidence. The phenomenon is studied in cognitive science and social psychology. The slideshow below is for anyone who is trying to study all of the cognitive biases so they can better understand human thought and behavior. It was prepared by Eric Fernandez and based on content from Wikipedia that was written in large part by Martin Poulter. The slideshow is broken up into four main sections: social biases; memory biases; decision-making biases; and probability/belief biases. Click the slideshow to begin. Cognitive biases that affect decisions. Why You’re Biased About Being Biased. In a classic experiment in 1953, students spent an hour doing repetitive, monotonous tasks, such as rotating square pegs a quarter turn, again and again.

Why You’re Biased About Being Biased

Then the experimenters asked the students to persuade someone else that this mind-numbing experience was in fact interesting. Some students got $1 ($9 today) to tell this fib while others got $20 ($176 today). In a survey at the end of the experiment, those paid only a trivial fee were more likely to describe the boring activity as engaging. They seemed to have persuaded themselves of their own lie. According to the researchers, psychologists Merrill Carlsmith and Leon Festinger, this attitude shift was caused by “cognitive dissonance,” the discomfort we feel when we try to hold two contradictory ideas or beliefs at the same time. List of cognitive biases.

Cognitive bias. Some cognitive biases are presumably adaptive. Cognitive biases may lead to more effective actions in a given context.[7] Furthermore, cognitive biases enable faster decisions when timeliness is more valuable than accuracy, as illustrated in heuristics.[8] Other cognitive biases are a "by-product" of human processing limitations,[9] resulting from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms (bounded rationality), or simply from a limited capacity for information processing.[10][11] A continually evolving list of cognitive biases has been identified over the last six decades of research on human judgment and decision-making in cognitive science, social psychology, and behavioral economics. Kahneman and Tversky (1996) argue that cognitive biases have efficient practical implications for areas including clinical judgment, entrepreneurship, finance, and management.[12][13] Overview[edit] Bias arises from various processes that are sometimes difficult to distinguish.

Types[edit] List[edit] What Is a Cognitive Bias? When we are making judgments and decisions about the world around us, we like to think that we are objective, logical, and capable of taking in and evaluating all the information that is available to us. The reality is, however, that our judgments and decisions are often riddled with errors and influenced by a wide variety of biases. The human brain is both remarkable and powerful, but certainly subject to limitations. One type of fundamental limitation on human thinking is known as a cognitive bias.

Being Really, Really, Ridiculously Good Looking. “I’m pretty sure there’s a lot more to life than being really, really, ridiculously good looking. And I plan on finding out what that is.” ~Derek Zoolander, Zoolander Humans like attractive people. Those blessed with the leading man looks of Brad Pitt or the curves of Beyonce can expect to make, on average, 10% to 15% more money over the course of their life than their more homely friends. Without being consciously aware that they are doing it, people consistently assume that good-looking people are friendly, successful, and trustworthy. This insight is not lost on Madison Avenue or Hollywood.