The Future 100 - JWT Intelligence. Can This Board Game Prepare You For The Future Of Work? Other than a brief chat with a college career counselor, or that time a family member asked what you wanted to be when you grew up, has anyone encouraged you to look into the future?
Were you ever formally taught how to develop your capacity for foresight? Me neither. A new game called IMPACT, by the innovation and design firm Idea Couture, wants to change that. Given how rapidly the workforce is evolving—not to mention life's inherent uncertainty—IMPACT's creators felt it might be useful to help people sharpen their ability to anticipate and respond to unexpected change, especially when it comes to their careers. Playing Games With Your Career. Challenge Online. Why the next 20 years will see a lot less technological disruption than the past 20. What Earth Will Be Like 100 Years in the Future. New Foresight project launched on the future of the sea.
The Government Office for Science has launched a new Foresight project which will look at the important future trends, challenges and opportunities for the UK from the sea.
The sea covers 70% of the world’s surface and is essential to regulating global temperature, oxygen and water. Including its overseas territories, the UK has jurisdiction over the 5th largest area of ocean of any country in the world. Technological advances are creating new opportunities to understand the sea, its resources and the effects of climate change. Artificial Intelligence, Emerging Technology and Internet of Things. Co-creation without systems thinking can be dangerous. “Being too far ahead is the same thing as being wrong.” “Being too far ahead is the same thing as being wrong.”
One key lesson for folks who practice foresight professionally. The quote is from James Allworth. (Though I understand he’s paraphrasing a Howard Marks quote, “Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong,” I actually think James’ scan of the line is better.) Both these guys were getting at the strategic challenge faced when bringing forth a new product or service in a fast-changing field: if you’re too far ahead of the curve, you bear a disproportionate cost of innovation, and risk having a market unprepared to see the value you’re offering them.
A New Board Game For Public Servants Just over a year ago, I was briefed on one of the most interesting design challenges of my career.
The ask came from Policy Horizons Canada, an innovation lab within the Government of Canada, who aimed to create a serious board game that would enable public servants to learn and practice foresight. Through a highly collaborative process, our team of futurists, strategists, and designers at Idea Couture worked with Policy Horizons Canada to develop IMPACT: A Foresight Game. The objective of foresight is not to predict the future, but to prepare for many futures. That's what makes a game such an ideal medium for learning foresight thinking. In more linear formats, such as a films or novels, the narrative is static. Black swans and barrels: Thinking about oil. Amazon.com. 134 AE06. Why the Failure of Systems Thinking Should Inform the Future of Design Thinking. "You never learn by doing something right ‘cause you already know how to do it.
You only learn from making mistakes and correcting them. " Russell Ackoff Design and "design thinking" is gaining recognition as an important integrative concept in management practice and education. But it will fail to have a lasting impact, unless we learn from the mistakes of earlier, related ideas. For instance, "system thinking", which shares many of the conceptual foundations of "design thinking", promised to be a powerful guide to management practice, but it has never achieved the success its proponents hoped for.
Systems thinking, as written about and practiced by Russell Ackoff, C. I have been an enthusiastic student and teacher of systems thinking for almost three decades. Systems thinking started with an impulse that insights from Gestalt psychology and biology might be useful in understanding and affecting complex organizational and social problems. The horizon scanning zoo. What better place to go and see the future than the horizon scanning zoo!
Here you can see all the magnificent beasts, which tell their story of the futures. Just follow this field guide and enjoy the (fore)sights! Black swans Near the entrance, in the most popular spot, are the black swans, swimming unexpectedly in the pond of future events. Based on the work by Graham Molitor, these birds were popularized by Nassim Taleb. Elephants. Possible Canadas - Why the pessimists are wrong about the future of economic growth. There is an active economic debate today about whether we have reached a structural slowdown in economic growth due to the fact that fundamental technological progress is over.
This view reflects a failure of both imagination and analysis. In fact, we can already see the foundations in science that will create vast new technologies and industries. 2.1_Foresight_in_governments.pdf. Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for the Coming Technology Revolution. December 09, 2013 The Atlantic Council’s 2012 report Envisioning 2030: US Strategy in a Post-Western World, written as a companion piece with the US National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, stated, “the keystone of national power remains US economic strength and innovation.”
Building upon this statement, this year’s Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for the Coming Technology Revolution, edited by Strategic Foresight Initiative Director Mathew J. Hinesight....for Foresight. Much of my professional life has been motivated by the desire to help organizations make greater use of foresight.
Early in my consulting career, working with Coates & Jarratt, Inc., I was surprised by how often our client loved our work, but did not know what to do with it internally. I spent almost a decade working inside two Fortune 500 companies in order to see for myself, and recently wrote my dissertation on the topic. Shell Let's Go. Felix Dodds comments on sustainable development and life. So You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent : Parallels. A group of 3,000 ordinary citizens, armed with nothing more than an Internet connection, is often making better forecasts of global events than CIA analysts.
Here, a man crosses the CIA logo at its headquarters in Langley, Va. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images hide caption itoggle caption Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images A group of 3,000 ordinary citizens, armed with nothing more than an Internet connection, is often making better forecasts of global events than CIA analysts. Here, a man crosses the CIA logo at its headquarters in Langley, Va. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images. Preparing for the impact of disruptive technologies.
It is interesting to reflect back to 1995 when the internet first appeared on the glowing computer screens of the relatively small number of Canadians citizens who were relying on computers for their livelihood, communications and entertainment and consider how this technology has transformed the lives of almost everyone living on this planet – the ways in which we communicate with one another, find entertainment and, most of all, how we work. As significant as these developments have been, most experts agree the full impact of these changes has not yet played itself out in all sectors of the economy. At this point in the transformation, one might wonder exactly how significant the impact of technology change will be in the long term. Fortunately for Canadians, a recently published research study by Policy Horizons Canada (formerly known as the Policy Research Initiative) has arrived at the right time.
Second, all sectors will be under pressure to adapt or they will not survive. Preparing for the impact of disruptive technologies. Governing for the Future: How to Bring the Long-Term Into Short-Term Political Focus. How Future Thinkers Can Revolutionize Strategic Planning - Promising Practices. Risk Science Center Mapping global risks and opportunities in 2015 - Risk Science Center.
Over the next few days, I’ll be joining experts from around the world to address emerging global trends and challenges at the World Economic Forum Summit on the Global Agenda. Framing our discussions will be the just-released Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015 – a synthesis of leading expertise from around the world on some of the top issues facing global society over the next few years.
The 2015 World Economic Forum Outlook on the Global Agenda This year’s Outlook provides a stark reminder that we live in challenging times. Topping the priority list are deepening income equality, persistent jobless growth and lack of leadership. The Myanmar Futures Exchange: Development at the Cross-Roads. Coping with Policy in Foresight.
BoC to use anecdotal evidence, people conversations in economic forecasts: Poloz. By The Canadian Press OTTAWA - The Bank of Canada is rethinking how it analyzing the economy, in part by putting less faith in computer models and more on anecdotal information and conversations with Canadians. In a message from governor Stephen Poloz, the central bank said its confidence in its models was shaken somewhat last year by the economy's underperformance and its inability to foresee events. The message was contained in the bank's annual report, released Friday. "We are working hard to refine those models, but this experience is also leading us to put increased emphasis on anecdotal evidence — real conversations with real Canadians making real economic decisions," Poloz says in a foreward.
"This approach includes surveys, both ours and those done by others, and numerous meetings with business associations" and roundtable discussions. The strength of ‘weak signals’ As information thunders through the digital economy, it’s easy to miss valuable “weak signals” often hidden amid the noise. Arising primarily from social media, they represent snippets—not streams—of information and can help companies to figure out what customers want and to spot looming industry and market disruptions before competitors do. Sometimes, companies notice them during data-analytics number-crunching exercises. Or employees who apply methods more akin to art than to science might spot them and then do some further number crunching to test anomalies they’re seeing or hypotheses the signals suggest.
Hinesight: For Foresight Use Hinesight.