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Foresight and Forecasting

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Cognitive Edge sur Twitter : "Insight 10 - best results through small timely reports aka 'organisational intravenous drip feed' - Rosemarie Forsythe IRAAHS 2015 Panel 1" John a. sweeney sur Twitter : "Amazing design work by @Loobidon for @UN_Montenegro UNDAF #foresight project! #hacktothefuture #MNE2030. Future is seasonal and regional.

How many brilliant and ever-younger sermonizers tread TED’s, or equivalent, stages every year boasting the virtues of inter-connectivity? How many times a year do we hear about the wonderful success story of a newborn networking company? Today’s economy model advocates for more exchanges. Any kind of cross-continents exchanges, from goods to ideas, from tangible to intangible. Together with the rise of the Internet and the new economy, appeared a modern mentality continuously promoting common values worldwide.Communication allowed us to interact with one another situated across the Globe, destroying borders and easing the merge of concepts and ideas. Humanity has challenged Nature, as in many developed countries, one could still enjoy eating a fresh strawberry right in the middle of the winter and drink water from a faraway spring all year long.

Traveling during a single night in order to be on the other corner of the Planet the following morning. Yet, it is not. Signs are all over. Welcome to 2035...the Age of Surprise. From anticipation to action: an essential foresight path for businesses and organisations | PhD2050 (Philippe Destatte) Namur, February 1st, 2014 From anticipation to action is a foundational book for the prospectivist approach, penned by Michel Godet in 1994 [1]. With a preface by the American futurist Joseph F. Coates, that book was the first version of what would become, through subsequent field experiences, the well-known handbook of “strategic prospective” [2].

The work, published by UNESCO, brought to the forefront one of the trademarks of the disciple of Jacques Lesourne, who was also his successor in the chair of Industrial Foresight at the Conservatoire national des Arts et Métiers (CNAM) in Paris: the famous Greek triangle that appeared on the cover of the French edition of that work (1991).

Anticipation, appropriation and action are key concepts that businesses and organisations attentive to strategic thinking, and thus to foresight, would do well to keep in mind. Anticipation of my future is constitutive of my present Appropriating challenges and responses to them: prime factor of change. KAIST receives $20 million donation for futures studies. A retired businessman, Moon-Soul Chung, the former chief executive officer of Mirae, Inc., a semiconductor equipment company in Korea, today donated USD 20 million to the Graduate School of Future Strategy at KAIST. It was Chung's second contribution to KAIST—his first donation of USD 28 million in 2001 supported the construction of the Bio and Brain Engineering building, a major research center on campus where biotechnology and information technology converge.

Established in 2013, the KAIST Graduate School of Future Strategy consists of three interdisciplinary graduate programs on future strategy, intellectual property, and science journalism. The Research Center for Future Strategy is an affiliate of the graduate school. KAIST is the first Korean university that offers an academic program granting a degree in futures studies. Provided by The Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) Simple Answers. Tedx | Stuart Candy Imagines Christchurch of the. What if Christchurch became NZ's capital? Last updated 05:00 13/10/2013 FUTURIST: Stuart Candy Thinking about the future is both harder and more important than ever, visiting futurist Stuart Candy tells PHILIP MATTHEWS. This is tomorrow calling. In a way, it literally is that. Australian thinker Stuart Candy is in Toronto on a Monday evening in autumn, talking into his mobile phone as he strolls around town. His interviewer is in Christchurch at noon on the following day.

The future calling? Candy is assistant professor in the faculty of design at OCAD University in downtown Toronto. His job is to predict and speculate on our behalf. "I won't pretend to speak for all futurists because people use the label and travel under it doing all sorts of different things," Candy says. He sometimes quotes artist Edgar Degas's line that "art is not what you see, but what you make others see". He studied under Jim Dator at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. Nicely put. "I have the honour of giving that. Rising to the challenge of the 21st century: the role of futures research and practice | Action Foresight. This short essay is adapted from a short piece I wrote during my time as Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, for their publication Global-is-Asian. More than ever, futures research is needed to support people’s critical understanding of the challenges we face in the 21st century, and support the development of actionable responses through public policy and social innovation.

The field has evolved since the 1950’s through differerent stages, a linear / predicticive modality, systems thinking and the birth of alternative futures, critical futures studies, and participatory and action oriented approaches. The key issues in applying futures studies include the need for depth exploration, links with effective communications strategies, and the actionability of foresight through policy development and social innovation. Introduction The age of ad hoc and naïve long-term thinking is over. A futures research synopsis. The Nine Kinds of Bad Futurists (NOT an exhaustive list) — Idea Sushi.

“If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – forever”. George Orwell I’m not that taken with futurists. It’s not that I dislike all of them, not at all. I admire some futurists greatly, and others I see as consummate professionals. So I decided to list the different kinds of bad futurist, as a somewhat handy field guide for the futurist-spotter. I’ve put the bad futurists into nine categories, but you should remember that there is a great deal of overlap between these categories. So, to the list, then. The Obfuscator/ObscurantistThe Shock-JockThe Mindless Optimist/PessimistThe Pseudo-AcademicThe TrendsterThe NeologizerThe Cookie-CutterThe ProselytizerThe Mystic Which one you find most annoying is completely up to you, but all of them are pretty bad.

Our first type, the obfuscator, who might also be called the obscurantist, is not interested in telling you anything worthwhile about the future. And can you blame him? 5 Unexpected Factors That Change How We Forecast The Future. When we think of "The Future," we have a tendency to think in terms of technologies. Whether it’s something as silly as a flying car or as banal as a new iteration of a mobile tablet, our images of what tomorrow will bring have a strong material bias. For everyday folks, this isn’t terribly surprising; our sense of what’s futuristic--whether via advertising or science fiction stories--zeroes in on stuff: robots, space ships, holograms, and so forth. But those of us who do futures work professionally have to live up to a higher standard. When we think about what impacts the spread of (say) self-driving cars or 3-D printers will have, we have to consider more than the technical details.

We need to think about people: how we live, how we use (and make) our stuff, and how we’re changing. These dynamics won’t necessarily show up in the narrative, but you should always ask how your forecast would affect--and be affected by--them: 1: Climate No surprise here. 2: Demographics 4: Power and Wealth. How To Win At Forecasting. One thing that became very clear, especially after Gorbachev came to power and confounded the predictions of both liberals and conservatives, was that even though nobody predicted the direction that Gorbachev was taking the Soviet Union, virtually everybody after the fact had a compelling explanation for it.

We seemed to be working in what one psychologist called an "outcome irrelevant learning situation. " People drew whatever lessons they wanted from history. There is quite a bit of skepticism about political punditry, but there's also a huge appetite for it. I was struck 30 years ago and I'm struck now by how little interest there is in holding political pundits who wield great influence accountable for predictions they make on important matters of public policy. The presidential election of 2012, of course, brought about the Nate Silver controversy and a lot of people, mostly Democrats, took great satisfaction out of Silver being more accurate than leading Republican pundits. Of Flying Cars and the Declining Rate of Profit | David Graeber. David Graeber [from The Baffler No. 19, 2012] A secret question hovers over us, a sense of disappointment, a broken promise we were given as children about what our adult world was supposed to be like.

I am referring not to the standard false promises that children are always given (about how the world is fair, or how those who work hard shall be rewarded), but to a particular generational promise—given to those who were children in the fifties, sixties, seventies, or eighties—one that was never quite articulated as a promise but rather as a set of assumptions about what our adult world would be like. And since it was never quite promised, now that it has failed to come true, we’re left confused: indignant, but at the same time, embarrassed at our own indignation, ashamed we were ever so silly to believe our elders to begin with.

Where, in short, are the flying cars? That last word—simulate—is key. Humans were not psychologically prepared for the pace of change, Toffler wrote. We might be living in the least disruptive age in history. This is a guest post by Brian Millar, Strategy Director at strategy agency Sense Worldwide. He works with global companies like Nike, Vodafone, and PepsiCo to transform their businesses. You can follow him on Twitter on @arthurascii "The world is moving faster than ever before. Everything is being disrupted, including that thing you do. So you're going to have to tear it up. If you've ever sat through a consultant's presentation, including *cough* many of mine, or leafed through a copy of the Harvard Business Review or Wired then you've heard a spiel like this. My grandmother would have folded her arms and frowned. My son was born in 1999. It's not just me and granny who are sceptical. Of course, there are huge disruptive forces at play in our world, just as there always have been.

Other kinds of change are forced by epic ideas that re-engineer our lives. What do we have that compares to that? There are always unsettling forces at work in the world, from the Bronze Age onwards. THE COUNT-UP TO 2052: AN OVERARCHING FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION. After the publication of the Korean, Chinese and Japanese language editions of “2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years”, the author, Club of Rome Member Jorgen Randers, gave talks in China, Korea and Japan in June 2013. There was an overwhelming media response in Asia. Inter alia, Jorgen Randers appeared on the Japanese Television program “Prime News 21″ (Fuji Television) on June 12th, 2013.

Click here to watch the full interview (in English). To view the videos of the launch of the Report to the Club of Rome “2052-A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years” in Rotterdam of May 7th 2012, please click here. The Italian edition of the “2052″ Report to the Club of Rome, written by Jorgen Randers, “2052. You can find more information on the Italian edition, which was published with Edizioni Ambiente, and a possibility to order here.

Click here for a summary of the extensive media coverage of the launch event in Rome (in Italian). The fundamental questions are: Money and sustainability. Explorers Journal - William Saturno: Maya Mural Find. At first glance the mound is nothing remarkable—just a pile of dirt and stone covered in trees and vegetation. It’s in the Guatemalan forest on the outskirts of the Classic Maya site of Xultún, near another site I’ve been studying for the past decade. At some point, looters dug a hole into it, looking for a tomb. I told the student who found an eroded wall with faint glimpses of paint, “There used to be something here, but there’s nothing now.” Still, I was curious. So I excavated to the back wall, and I saw a beautiful portrait of a king. There he was in Technicolor, with blue feathers.

It’s rare to find ancient Maya murals, but I’ve had great luck over the years. Saturno excavates the Xultún mural room, scraping debris near the painting of Younger Brother Obsidian. Tyrone Turner My hunch is that this may have been a workspace or teaching space for scribes, artists, or scholars. This was done in A.D. 813 or 814, 75 years before Xultún’s final days. Retro future News, Videos, Reviews and Gossip - io9. Why Change Happens: Ten Theories. One of the grandest — and most frustrating — things about carrying on the great democratic conversation via blog is finding out how many of your fellow citizens (including many who are nominally on your side) turn out to be looking at the world from a completely different set of assumptions than you are. In fact, there’s simply nothing like the Internet if you want to be thrown together with people who have ordered their entire lives around fundamental propositions that would never have occurred to you if you lived to be 100.

Behold your fellow earthlings, in all their bizarre and twisted glory…. A lot of these disconnects have to do with all the weird and wonderful theories people have about why change happens. Because we each have our own pet theories of how the world works, different people can look at the same situation, and come to completely different conclusions about what’s likely to happen next. 1. Progress. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Thinking About Futurism. William Gibson on aging futurism. You're So Predictable. Daniel Kahneman and the Science of Human Fallibility | Think Tank. I will never know if my vocation as a psychologist was a result of my early exposure to interesting gossip, or whether my interest in gossip was an indication of a budding vocation. Like many other Jews, I suppose, I grew up in a world that consisted exclusively of people and words, and most of the words were about people. . . . the people my mother liked to talk about with her friends and with my father were fascinating in their complexity.

Some people were better than others, but the best were far from perfect and no one was simply bad. – Daniel Kahneman, Autobiography Upon Winning the Nobel Prize In 2002, Psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize for his work in Behavioral Economics. This was no “I want to thank all the little people” Oscars toast. As a researcher and theorist Kahneman has dedicated his life to exposing the illusions that color all human judgment, including his own. The Illusion of Validity Confusion between the “experiencing self” and the “remembering self.”