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THE COUNT-UP TO 2052: AN OVERARCHING FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION.

THE COUNT-UP TO 2052: AN OVERARCHING FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION.
After the publication of the Korean, Chinese and Japanese language editions of “2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years”, the author, Club of Rome Member Jorgen Randers, gave talks in China, Korea and Japan in June 2013. There was an overwhelming media response in Asia. Inter alia, Jorgen Randers appeared on the Japanese Television program “Prime News 21″ (Fuji Television) on June 12th, 2013. To view the videos of the launch of the Report to the Club of Rome “2052-A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years” in Rotterdam of May 7th 2012, please click here. The Italian edition of the “2052″ Report to the Club of Rome, written by Jorgen Randers, “2052. You can find more information on the Italian edition, which was published with Edizioni Ambiente, and a possibility to order here. Click here for a summary of the extensive media coverage of the launch event in Rome (in Italian). You can find more information on the Japanese version and a possibility to order here. Bankrupting Nature

systems thoery Human beings tend to impose rationales to explain the phenomena that surround them. Some employ the mechanistic scientific view, and some take a systems view. The former is an analytical, reductionist and linear-causal paradigm, in which the observed phenomenon is broken into parts, and the parts are isolated from the whole and examined separately. Systems theory opposes the reduction of systems. It criticizes the mechanistic view neglects the relationship of the components with the larger systems. It emphasizes the totality, complexity, and dynamics of the system. Systems theory comes from the general systems theory proposed by the biologist Ludwig von Bertalanffy. The systems view investigates the components of the phenomena, the interaction between the components, and the relation of components to their larger environment. Systems theory was furthered by Ross Ashby's concept of Cybernetics. What are the assumptions about systems view? First, let's examine their definitions.

PRESENTATION Terra Nova est un think tank progressiste indépendant ayant pour but de produire et diffuser des solutions politiques innovantes, en France et en Europe. Les trois objectifs prioritaires de la fondation: Favoriser la rénovation intellectuelle de la social-démocratie Elle veut contribuer à la refondation de la « matrice idéologique » de la gauche progressiste et à la promotion de ses idéaux. Produire de l’expertise et des solutions politiques opérationnelles Elle veut formuler des propositions concrètes au profit des leaders politiques, des élus nationaux et locaux ainsi que de tous ceux qui mettent en œuvre des politiques publiques. Inscrire son action dans un réseau européen et international de think tanks progressistes Elle veut s’inspirer des réussites et des bonnes pratiques de nos partenaires européens, participer à l’influence intellectuelle de la France en Europe et contribuer à faire émerger une doctrine progressiste européenne. téléchargez la Présentation détaillée de Terra Nova

Quand aura lieu la prochaine ère glaciaire ? Bertalanffy's General Systems Theory: The Topology of Mind Development By Gregory Mitchell Systems theory studies the structure and properties of systems in terms of relationships, from which new properties of wholes emerge. It was established as a science by Ludwig von Bertalanffy, Anatol Rapoport, Kenneth E. Boulding, William Ross Ashby, Margaret Mead, Gregory Bateson and others in the 1950's. The concept of system, though it seems to be intrinsic to human thinking, has been extensively employed and developed over the last few decades, due in a large measure to contributions made by Karl Ludwig von Bertalanffy (1901-1972), a Viennese professor of biology. Bertalanffy's ideas were developed into a General Systems Theory. The systems view looks at the world in terms of relationships and integration. Another important aspect of systems is their intrinsically dynamic nature. Human survival, in Bertalanffy's view, was the paramount purpose for cultivating the uncommon sense of General Systems Theory. "Man is described as a computer, an animal, or an infant.

Think Tank Behind SOPA Says USTR Should Make Sure TPP Includes IP Maximalist Positions ITIF, the think tank that was often credited with coming up with the basic idea behind SOPA's horrifying plan to censor websites and break key parts of the basic DNS system (and, which we recently discovered, gets funding from the MPAA) is back and pushing for support of IP maximalism in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. It has re-released a report about how the TPP must be "the gold standard" in trade agreements -- with a key focus on stronger and more limiting IP rules. In a press release about this re-release, ITIF argues for a strong maximalist agenda in the TPP: Entering into a sub-standard Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement that offers only weak intellectual property (IP) protections or permits countries to maintain mercantilist practices would be far worse than not joining the agreement Of course, that's hilarious, because there's nothing more mercantilist in trade policy today than intellectual property rights.

CHAUD – Le changement climatique pourrait faire 100 millions de morts d’ici 2030 Le réchauffement climatique cause de plus en plus de sécheresses. (AFP PHOTO/REMY GABALDA) Si rien n'est fait pour l'enrayer, le changement climatique pourrait causer la mort de 100 millions de personnes et coûter l'équivalent de 3,2 % du PIB mondial d'ici 2030. En cause, relate le Huffington Post, des conditions climatiques plus extrêmes, des sécheresses, ou encore la hausse du niveau de la mer. En effet, si les Etats n'ont pas tous le même degré de responsabilité dans les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, ils subissent aussi les conséquences du changement climatique de manière très inégale, comme l'illustrent les graphiques de Think Progress ci-dessous : Infographie de Think Progress, qui montre la répartition des décès liés au changement climatique et aux émissions de gaz carbonique selon les pays. Selon le rapport, "l'échec des actions contre le changement climatique coûte déjà à l'économie mondiale 1,6 % de son PIB, soit 1 200 milliards de dollars par an de prospérité".

What is Critical Thinking No one always acts purely objectively and rationally. We connive for selfish interests. We gossip, boast, exaggerate, and equivocate. It is "only human" to wish to validate our prior knowledge, to vindicate our prior decisions, or to sustain our earlier beliefs. Critical thinking includes a complex combination of skills. Rationality We are thinking critically when werely on reason rather than emotion,require evidence, ignore no known evidence, and follow evidence where it leads, andare concerned more with finding the best explanation than being right analyzing apparent confusion and asking questions. Self-awareness We are thinking critically when weweigh the influences of motives and bias, andrecognize our own assumptions, prejudices, biases, or point of view. Honesty We are thinking critically when we recognize emotional impulses, selfish motives, nefarious purposes, or other modes of self-deception. Open-mindedness Discipline Judgment

Changement climatique : premier facteur de migration forcée - Institut Amadeus Les phénomènes climatiques sont devenus le premier facteur de déplacement forcé de populations, avant même les conflits. Par Abdelfatah Ait Ammi, chargé d'études Environnement et Energie C’est maintenant officiel : le changement climatique est désormais la première cause de migration forcée. La question n’est pas complètement nouvelle. Les experts sont cependant restés prudents quant à établir un lien de cause à effet entre évènements résultant du changement climatique et migrations. Alors que les conséquences de catastrophes naturelles elles-mêmes sont attribuées à des facteurs tant climatiques que non climatiques, un consensus émerge cependant sur le fait que le changement climatique contraint chaque année des millions de personnes à quitter leur lieu de résidence habituel. Il est désormais certain que les capacités d’accueil de certaines parties du monde devraient être compromises par le changement climatique. Contrainte migratoire a. b. Avenir climatique Politiques publiques

La banquise arctique pourrait complètement disparaître d'ici à quatre ans La fonte des glaces de mer du pôle Nord s'accélère au point qu'elles pourraient avoir totalement disparu, en été, entre 2015 et 2016, selon Peter Wadhams, de l'université de Cambridge. Le Monde.fr | • Mis à jour le | Par Audrey Garric La fonte de la banquise arctique s'accélère au point qu'elle pourrait avoir totalement disparu en été d'ici à quatre ans. C'est la mise en garde de l'un des plus grands spécialistes du sujet, Peter Wadhams, dans le Guardian, lundi 17 septembre, alors que la superficie des glaces de mer de l'hémisphère Nord est sur le point d'atteindre son plus bas historique. Wadhams, qui dirige le département de physique de l'océan polaire à l'université de Cambridge, en Angleterre, a passé de nombreuses années à recueillir des données sur l'épaisseur de la glace grâce aux mesures de sous-marins parcourant l'océan Arctique. "UNE CATASTROPHE MONDIALE" en 2015 OU 2016 Peter Wadhams appelle alors à "des mesures urgentes" pour limiter l'augmentation des températures.

Systems Thinking Definitions From SystemsWiki As I have continued to ponder the meaning of Systems Thinking over the years in conjunction with reading and many conversations it would seem that the understanding has evolved, thankfully. There was a time when I thought Systems Thinking was just a not very grown up version of System Dynamics though I have come to understand it is really far more encompassing. While the meaning continues to evolve my foundational belief remains solid. Systems Thinking will enable you to better understand the world around you and enable you to have more control over your life than any other subject you may undertake to study. Amidst the Eclipse You might consider this section to be sort of a description of what I thought the day before yesterday. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. ~ Aristotle A system is an entity which maintains its existence through the mutual interaction of its parts. ~ Bertalanffy[1] Structural Diagram a more disciplined map. Definitions Composite References

Video - Les projets les plus fous pour combattre le réchauffement climatique - Maxisciences Le réchauffement climatique est bien présent et ses conséquences de plus en plus visibles. Des scientifiques proposent des solutions folles. Mais le remède ne pourrait-il pas se révéler pire que le mal? Avez-vous déjà partagé cet article? Partager sur Facebook Partager sur Twitter La fonte de la calotte glaciaire Arctique, de plus en plus rapide, atteint, cette année encore, un nouveau record. Des scientifiques Américains se sont penchés sur ce grave problème et ont imaginé des moyens de lutte contre ce réchauffement. 1 – Le parasol spatial Une des façons imaginée par les scientifiques, pour réduire le rayonnement solaire arrivant sur terre est assez simple….sur le papier :mettre en place, entre la Terre et le Soleil, un "Parasol Spatial" sous forme de milliards de petits miroirs qui seraient envoyés par conteneurs dans l’espace. Problème : Le coût de ce projet est estimé à 5.000 milliards de dollars. 2 – Du soufre dans l’atmosphère 3 – Du fer dans les océans

Society as a Complex Adaptive System | Walter Buckley | 1968 | Modern Systems Research for the Behavioral Scientist | In brief. David Ing. Sociocultural systems described by Walter Buckley in 1968 were later cited as information-bonded (c.f. energy-bonded) systems by Gharajedaghi 1999, and in 2011 . This reading deserves some more thought, so I’m getting into motion to lead a workshop at ISSS Hai Phong City 2013 . We have argued at some length in another place [1] that the mechanical equilibrium model and the organismic homeostasis models of society that have underlain most modern sociological theory have outlived their usefulness. A more viable model, one much more faithful to the kind of system that society is more and more recognized to be, is in process of developing out of, or is in keeping with, the modern systems perspective (which we use loosely here to refer to general systems research, cybernetics, information and communication theory, and related fields). [1]. Sociology and Modern System Theory (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1967) Buckley, Walter. 1968. Gharajedaghi, Jamshid. 1999. Like this:

Is Humanity Pushing Earth Past a Tipping Point? | Wired Science Could human activity push Earth’s biological systems to a planet-wide tipping point, causing changes as radical as the Ice Age’s end — but with less pleasant results, and with billions of people along for a bumpy ride? It’s by no means a settled scientific proposition, but many researchers say it’s worth considering — and not just as an apocalyptic warning or far-fetched speculation, but as a legitimate question raised by emerging science. “There are some biological realities we can’t ignore,” said paleoecologist Anthony Barnosky of the University of California, Berkeley. “What I’d like to avoid is getting caught by surprise.” In “Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere,” published June 6 in Nature, Barnosky and 21 co-authors cite 100 papers in summarizing what’s known about environmental tipping points. Deforestation in the Amazon jungle, which some scientists say could become a savannah. “We have quite good evidence for the Earth having tipping elements.

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