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THE COUNT-UP TO 2052: AN OVERARCHING FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION.

THE COUNT-UP TO 2052: AN OVERARCHING FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION.
After the publication of the Korean, Chinese and Japanese language editions of “2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years”, the author, Club of Rome Member Jorgen Randers, gave talks in China, Korea and Japan in June 2013. There was an overwhelming media response in Asia. Inter alia, Jorgen Randers appeared on the Japanese Television program “Prime News 21″ (Fuji Television) on June 12th, 2013. To view the videos of the launch of the Report to the Club of Rome “2052-A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years” in Rotterdam of May 7th 2012, please click here. The Italian edition of the “2052″ Report to the Club of Rome, written by Jorgen Randers, “2052. You can find more information on the Italian edition, which was published with Edizioni Ambiente, and a possibility to order here. Click here for a summary of the extensive media coverage of the launch event in Rome (in Italian). You can find more information on the Japanese version and a possibility to order here. Bankrupting Nature Related:  Foresight and ForecastingInnovation INSIGHTS 2013 (SUN)

systems thoery Human beings tend to impose rationales to explain the phenomena that surround them. Some employ the mechanistic scientific view, and some take a systems view. The former is an analytical, reductionist and linear-causal paradigm, in which the observed phenomenon is broken into parts, and the parts are isolated from the whole and examined separately. Systems theory opposes the reduction of systems. It criticizes the mechanistic view neglects the relationship of the components with the larger systems. It emphasizes the totality, complexity, and dynamics of the system. Systems theory comes from the general systems theory proposed by the biologist Ludwig von Bertalanffy. The systems view investigates the components of the phenomena, the interaction between the components, and the relation of components to their larger environment. Systems theory was furthered by Ross Ashby's concept of Cybernetics. What are the assumptions about systems view? First, let's examine their definitions.

Explorers Journal - William Saturno: Maya Mural Find At first glance the mound is nothing remarkable—just a pile of dirt and stone covered in trees and vegetation. It’s in the Guatemalan forest on the outskirts of the Classic Maya site of Xultún, near another site I’ve been studying for the past decade. At some point, looters dug a hole into it, looking for a tomb. I told the student who found an eroded wall with faint glimpses of paint, “There used to be something here, but there’s nothing now.” It’s rare to find ancient Maya murals, but I’ve had great luck over the years. Saturno excavates the Xultún mural room, scraping debris near the painting of Younger Brother Obsidian. Tyrone Turner My hunch is that this may have been a workspace or teaching space for scribes, artists, or scholars. This was done in A.D. 813 or 814, 75 years before Xultún’s final days. It’s important to understand that the ancient Maya predicted the world would continue.

An interview with Jorgen Randers: ’2052′ – “It’s the story of humanity not rising to the occasion” But I decided that for my own sake it would be interesting at least to know what will happen in sufficient detail for me to believe in it so that I could then decide whether I need to continue worrying for the future, and that was the very clear ambition 18 months ago, and now the book exists and it gives me in many ways great peace of mind because I believe in the forecast I have given there and in many ways it makes life much simpler I think, for a person who has been worrying about unsustainability for such a long time. For people who haven’t read the book yet, can you tell us about 2052? What’s it going to be like? It’s a book that describes, as detailed as I can, what will happen from now until 2052, so it’s a story about world developments over the next 40 years. At a very aggregate level what the forecast says is that humanity will try very hard to achieve economic growth, income growth over the next 40 years. I think you already see the simplest examples of those evolving.

Bertalanffy's General Systems Theory: The Topology of Mind Development By Gregory Mitchell Systems theory studies the structure and properties of systems in terms of relationships, from which new properties of wholes emerge. It was established as a science by Ludwig von Bertalanffy, Anatol Rapoport, Kenneth E. Boulding, William Ross Ashby, Margaret Mead, Gregory Bateson and others in the 1950's. The concept of system, though it seems to be intrinsic to human thinking, has been extensively employed and developed over the last few decades, due in a large measure to contributions made by Karl Ludwig von Bertalanffy (1901-1972), a Viennese professor of biology. Bertalanffy's ideas were developed into a General Systems Theory. The systems view looks at the world in terms of relationships and integration. Another important aspect of systems is their intrinsically dynamic nature. Human survival, in Bertalanffy's view, was the paramount purpose for cultivating the uncommon sense of General Systems Theory. "Man is described as a computer, an animal, or an infant.

Why Change Happens: Ten Theories One of the grandest — and most frustrating — things about carrying on the great democratic conversation via blog is finding out how many of your fellow citizens (including many who are nominally on your side) turn out to be looking at the world from a completely different set of assumptions than you are. In fact, there’s simply nothing like the Internet if you want to be thrown together with people who have ordered their entire lives around fundamental propositions that would never have occurred to you if you lived to be 100. Behold your fellow earthlings, in all their bizarre and twisted glory…. A lot of these disconnects have to do with all the weird and wonderful theories people have about why change happens. Professional futurists have, through the years, boiled down all the various change theories down to about ten basic classifications. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Each of these basic change models has its appropriate uses, its explanatory strengths, and its limits.

The Global Economy Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme Essential for any healthy economy is the people to power it. And Europe, North America, Oceania — they’re all losing fuel. What will this mean for superpowers, national borders, and for xenophobia? Across once-tolerant Europe, political parties of the right are rising on a tide of bigotry. Geert Wilders of the Netherlands is the best-known example, but from Greece to Norway, from Austria to the UK, voters are flocking to far-right parties of prejudice. In America the political/racial divide has widened over the past decade or so. It’s happening in other places, too. Even in Australia, often cited as the most successful multicultural society in the world, issues of race, ethnicity and religion are increasingly prominent in political discourse. The question is, why? In a word, the answer is demographics. As we wrote in part one of this feature, half the world, including almost all the developed world, now is reproducing at below replacement level. But what happens if that all stops?

What is Critical Thinking No one always acts purely objectively and rationally. We connive for selfish interests. We gossip, boast, exaggerate, and equivocate. It is "only human" to wish to validate our prior knowledge, to vindicate our prior decisions, or to sustain our earlier beliefs. Critical thinking includes a complex combination of skills. Rationality We are thinking critically when werely on reason rather than emotion,require evidence, ignore no known evidence, and follow evidence where it leads, andare concerned more with finding the best explanation than being right analyzing apparent confusion and asking questions. Self-awareness We are thinking critically when weweigh the influences of motives and bias, andrecognize our own assumptions, prejudices, biases, or point of view. Honesty We are thinking critically when we recognize emotional impulses, selfish motives, nefarious purposes, or other modes of self-deception. Open-mindedness Discipline Judgment

You're So Predictable. Daniel Kahneman and the Science of Human Fallibility | Think Tank I will never know if my vocation as a psychologist was a result of my early exposure to interesting gossip, or whether my interest in gossip was an indication of a budding vocation. Like many other Jews, I suppose, I grew up in a world that consisted exclusively of people and words, and most of the words were about people. . . . the people my mother liked to talk about with her friends and with my father were fascinating in their complexity. Some people were better than others, but the best were far from perfect and no one was simply bad. – Daniel Kahneman, Autobiography Upon Winning the Nobel Prize In 2002, Psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize for his work in Behavioral Economics. This was no “I want to thank all the little people” Oscars toast. The Illusion of Validity As a young man, Kahneman spent a year in the Psychology branch of the Israeli Defense Forces. An Extremely Reductionist List of Some of the Flaws Kahneman Has Identified in Human Judgment:

101 Signals: Want to Know Business? These Are the Only People You Need to Follow | Wired Business Business These are our favorite sources of news covering the world of business and finance. From macro­economics to microlending, these folks are all money when it comes to delivering high-value information. If you’re drowning in noise, let WIRED’s 101 Signals be your lifeline. These are the core nutrients of a good data diet. Download the OPML file to import our signals into your preferred news reader, or automatically add them to Digg Reader. If you want to see where technology is headed tomorrow, follow the collective pool of money that powers it today. Dave Birch is one of the few people tracking the global economy’s shift to digital payments in a way that’s neither DMV-dull nor Bitcoin-bananas. When Bernanke talks, the smart money listens to Bill McBride. Yeah, email is a nasty old fire hose of forwards, fallacies, and who the f@#! Along with his business partner Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz has been building megabucks companies since the ’90s. Illustration: Nishant Choksi

Systems Thinking Definitions From SystemsWiki As I have continued to ponder the meaning of Systems Thinking over the years in conjunction with reading and many conversations it would seem that the understanding has evolved, thankfully. There was a time when I thought Systems Thinking was just a not very grown up version of System Dynamics though I have come to understand it is really far more encompassing. While the meaning continues to evolve my foundational belief remains solid. Systems Thinking will enable you to better understand the world around you and enable you to have more control over your life than any other subject you may undertake to study. Amidst the Eclipse You might consider this section to be sort of a description of what I thought the day before yesterday. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. ~ Aristotle A system is an entity which maintains its existence through the mutual interaction of its parts. ~ Bertalanffy[1] Structural Diagram a more disciplined map. Definitions Composite References

We might be living in the least disruptive age in history This is a guest post by Brian Millar, Strategy Director at strategy agency Sense Worldwide. He works with global companies like Nike, Vodafone, and PepsiCo to transform their businesses. You can follow him on Twitter on @arthurascii "The world is moving faster than ever before. If you've ever sat through a consultant's presentation, including *cough* many of mine, or leafed through a copy of the Harvard Business Review or Wired then you've heard a spiel like this. My grandmother would have folded her arms and frowned. My son was born in 1999. It's not just me and granny who are sceptical. Of course, there are huge disruptive forces at play in our world, just as there always have been. Other kinds of change are forced by epic ideas that re-engineer our lives. What do we have that compares to that? There are always unsettling forces at work in the world, from the Bronze Age onwards. The world is not moving faster than previous decades.

101 Signals: The 18 People Who Will Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Design | Wired Design Design To paraphrase Steve Jobs, design isn’t just what it looks like. It’s how it works. These sources break down the way design works–what’s coming up, what’s going down, and what you need to pay attention to. If you’re drowning in noise, let WIRED’s 101 Signals be your lifeline. Download the OPML file to import our signals into your preferred news reader, or automatically add them to Digg Reader. MoMA architecture and design curator Antonelli sees design as a critical lens on the way we live. Arcangel, a conceptual artist who works in videogames and Internet trivia, is what happens when Marcel Duchamp grows up with a Game Boy. Geoff Manaugh’s strange stew of architectural history, urban planning insight, and sci-fi philosophizing is unmatched reading for understanding the cities we live in. This is still where industrial designers go to hash out big challenges in actually shipping products. Brilliant interaction design from all corners of the web. Illustration: Nishant Choksi

Society as a Complex Adaptive System | Walter Buckley | 1968 | Modern Systems Research for the Behavioral Scientist | In brief. David Ing. Sociocultural systems described by Walter Buckley in 1968 were later cited as information-bonded (c.f. energy-bonded) systems by Gharajedaghi 1999, and in 2011 . This reading deserves some more thought, so I’m getting into motion to lead a workshop at ISSS Hai Phong City 2013 . We have argued at some length in another place [1] that the mechanical equilibrium model and the organismic homeostasis models of society that have underlain most modern sociological theory have outlived their usefulness. A more viable model, one much more faithful to the kind of system that society is more and more recognized to be, is in process of developing out of, or is in keeping with, the modern systems perspective (which we use loosely here to refer to general systems research, cybernetics, information and communication theory, and related fields). [1]. Sociology and Modern System Theory (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1967) Buckley, Walter. 1968. Gharajedaghi, Jamshid. 1999. Like this:

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