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Exponential Change - Technological Singularity

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The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means and how to respond. We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means and how to respond

In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before. We do not yet know just how it will unfold, but one thing is clear: the response to it must be integrated and comprehensive, involving all stakeholders of the global polity, from the public and private sectors to academia and civil society. The First Industrial Revolution used water and steam power to mechanize production. The Second used electric power to create mass production. The Third used electronics and information technology to automate production. There are three reasons why today’s transformations represent not merely a prolongation of the Third Industrial Revolution but rather the arrival of a Fourth and distinct one: velocity, scope, and systems impact. Challenges and opportunities. Untitled. The Dawn of the Singularity: A Visual Timeline of Ray Kurzweil's Predictions. The Law of Accelerating Returns.

The Unique Challenges of Exponential Leadership. Salim Ismail The term “exponential” refers to a sequence or process by which desirable results are achieved.

The Unique Challenges of Exponential Leadership

As Salim Ismail explains in his eponymous book, written with Michael S. Malone and Yuri van Geest, an exponential organization (ExO) “is one whose impact (or output) is disproportionately large — at least 10 times larger — than its peers because of the use of new organizational techniques that leverage accelerating technologies.” Such organizations pose unique challenges to those who aspire to lead them.

In Chapter Eight, Ismail, “ExOs for Large Organizations,” he discusses six defining characteristics and I hasten to add that, with only slight modifications, they could also describe other leaders in small-to-midsize organizations. 8 Reasons Why We're About to See an Explosion in Robot Intelligence. We are approaching a transformative expansion in robotics.

8 Reasons Why We're About to See an Explosion in Robot Intelligence

Around half a billion years ago, life forms on Earth suddenly became significantly more diverse, creating most of the general classes of fauna and flora we know today. This period is known as the Cambrian explosion, and the leading theory to explain it is that certain traits, like vision, became advanced enough to help multiple species thrive. The field of robotics might be poised for a Cambrian explosion of its own, according to Gill Pratt, a DARPA program manager. In a paper for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, he proposes eight exponentially advancing technologies — or “technical drivers” — that might be getting just good enough to lead to an huge expansion in the number and different types of robots.

Accelerating change. In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological (and sometimes social and cultural) progress throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future.

Accelerating change

While many have suggested accelerating change, the popularity of this theory in modern times is closely associated with various advocates of the technological singularity, such as Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil. Early observations[edit] Three Major Schools. (Originally appeared on the Machine Intelligence Research Institute blog, September 2007.)

Three Major Schools

Singularity discussions seem to be splitting up into three major schools of thought: Accelerating Change, the Event Horizon, and the Intelligence Explosion. Accelerating Change: Core claim: Our intuitions about change are linear; we expect roughly as much change as has occurred in the past over our own lifetimes. But technological change feeds on itself, and therefore accelerates. What is the singularity? Picture yourself trying to explain the experience of streaming a movie to William Shakespeare.

What is the singularity?

First, you'd have to explain movies. Then you'd have to explain TVs (or computers, or tablets or mobile phones, or maybe even Google Glass). Then you'd probably have to explain the Internet. Evolution of evolvability. Evolution of Evolvability This paper shows how evolution tunes the content and frequency of genetic variation to enhance its evolvability.

Evolution of evolvability

Genetic evolution is not random or entirely blind. Genetic systems are like nervous systems and brains—they have been structured and organised by evolution to enhance their ability to discover effective adaptations. (For a more general approach to the evolution of evolvability, see Chapters 8 to 12 inclusive of the on-line book Evolution's Arrow. It examines in detail how evolution itself has evolved. The Futurist: Are You Acceleration Aware? The single most necessary component of any attempt to make predictions about the future is a deep internalized understanding of the accelerating, exponential rate of change.

The Futurist: Are You Acceleration Aware?

So many supposed 'experts' merely project the rate of progress as a linear trend, or even worse, fail to recognize progress at all, and make predictions that end up being embarrassingly wrong. For example, recall that in the early 1970s, everyone thought that by 2000, all of the Earth's oil would be used up. It has not, and the average American spends fewer hours of wages on gasoline each week than in 1970. Equally simple-minded predictions are made today.

How often do we read things like : "By 2080, Social Security will no longer be able pay benefits, leaving many middle Americans with insufficient retirement funds. " 2080?! The Dawn of the Singularity: A Visual Timeline of Ray Kurzweil's Predictions. Ray Kurzweil’s Mind-Boggling Predictions for the Next 25 Years.

In my new book BOLD, one of the interviews that I’m most excited about is with my good friend Ray Kurzweil.

Ray Kurzweil’s Mind-Boggling Predictions for the Next 25 Years

Bill Gates calls Ray, “the best person I know at predicting the future of artificial intelligence.” Ray is also amazing at predicting a lot more beyond just AI. This post looks at his very incredible predictions for the next 20+ years. Ray Kurzweil. The World in 2025: 8 Predictions for the Next 10 Years - Singularity HUB. In 2025, in accordance with Moore's Law, we'll see an acceleration in the rate of change as we move closer to a world of true abundance.

The World in 2025: 8 Predictions for the Next 10 Years - Singularity HUB

Here are eight areas where we'll see extraordinary transformation in the next decade: 1. A $1,000 Human Brain In 2025, $1,000 should buy you a computer able to calculate at 10^16 cycles per second (10,000 trillion cycles per second), the equivalent processing speed of the human brain. 2. Future Timeline Latest Updates. Future Timeline. Ten Years To the Singularity If We Really, Really Try … and other Essays on AGI and its Implications. Can We Control Our Technological Destiny—Or Are We Just Along For the Ride? - Singularity HUB. “Man becomes, as it were, the sex organs of the machine world…”– Marshall McLuhan A standard assumption of technological progress is that new innovations are born in our mind, and we humans choose which of those visions to bring into existence.

Ray Kurzweil Speaking at Geek Park Innovation Conference, Beijing, China - Futurism. Ray Kurzweil Speaking at Geek Park Innovation Conference, Beijing, China Share This Tweet This Join .wp-social-login-connect-with{}.wp-social-login-provider-list{}.wp-social-login-provider-list a{}.wp-social-login-provider-list img{}.wsl_connect_with_provider{} Salim Ismail on Singularity University [Transcript] Endeavor is pleased to make public the following transcript from a presentation at the 2011 Endeavor Entrepreneur Summit in San Francisco. The event, which assembled over 450 entrepreneurs and global business leaders, featured dozens of entrepreneurship-related presentations by top CEOs and industry experts. Overview: Salim Ismail, successful angel investor and entrepreneur, former vice president of Yahoo! And current executive director of Singularity University discusses what Singularity University is and does and how technology will radically change the future.

Bio: Salim is a successful angel investor and entrepreneur – his last company, Angstro, was acquired by Google in August 2010. He has operated seven early-stage companies and is a frequent speaker on internet technologies, private equity and entrepreneurship. The Third Replicator - The New York Times. Leading climate change economist assesses chances of a singularity, concludes it is "not near" In Brief A new research paper by Yale economist William Nordhaus takes a sober but serious look at the Singularity hypothesis. What It Is Many economists believe in a theory called stagnation, which posits that economic growth will slow because of resource depletion and declining productivity. The Acceleration of Acceleration: How The Future Is Arriving Far Faster Than Expected.

The future of technology will "pale" the previous 20 years. Linear & Exponential Change. Accelerating Future » Top 10 Transhumanist Technologies. Future Timeline. The Knowledge Doubling Curve. Accelerating change. Infinity Point Will Arrive by 2035 Latest. Eray Ozkural December 23, 2013 During writing a paper for the 100 Year Starship Symposium, I wished to convince the starship designers that they should acknowledge the dynamics of high-technology economy, which may be crucial for interstellar missions.

Thus motivated, I have made a new calculation regarding infinity point, also known as the singularity. The Exponential Growth of Computing. The Exponential Growth of Computing in this Century. The best visuals to explain the Singularity to senior executives. Tomorrow morning I’m doing a presentation to the top executive team of a very large organization on the next 20 years. Most of what I will cover will be general societal, business and technological drivers as well as specific strategic issues driving their business. However as part of stretching their thinking I’ll also speak a about the Singularity. As such I’ve been trying to find one good image to introduce my explanation, however I haven’t been able to find one which is quite right for the purpose.

The Coming Singularity. Introducing the Singularity. The Coming Technological Singularity. ==================================================================== The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era Vernor Vinge Department of Mathematical Sciences San Diego State University (c) 1993 by Vernor Vinge (Verbatim copying/translation and distribution of this entire article is permitted in any medium, provided this notice is preserved.) Technological Singularity. Technological singularity. Defining the Singularity. 17 Definitions of the Technological Singularity. The Singularity is closer than it appears! Singularitarianism. Singularity University’s GSP Class of 2014 Blasts Off to the Future.

Transhumanism

Why the Word "Transhumanism" Should Bother You, Too.