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The Law of Accelerating Returns

The Law of Accelerating Returns
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light. You will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says. Now back to the future: it’s widely misunderstood. Wherefrom Moore’s Law

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Leading climate change economist assesses chances of a singularity, concludes it is "not near" In Brief A new research paper by Yale economist William Nordhaus takes a sober but serious look at the Singularity hypothesis. What It Is Many economists believe in a theory called stagnation, which posits that economic growth will slow because of resource depletion and declining productivity. But Nordhaus believes that the opposite idea — the singularity — is worth study, because if artificial intelligence ever crosses “some boundary” it could have serious implications for the economy. Therefore Nordhaus has written one of the first academic papers to seriously look at economic implications for the singularity.

Knowledge Doubling Every 12 Months, Soon to be Every 12 Hours Knowledge Doubling Curve Buckminster Fuller created the “Knowledge Doubling Curve”; he noticed that until 1900 human knowledge doubled approximately every century. By the end of World War II knowledge was doubling every 25 years. Today things are not as simple as different types of knowledge have different rates of growth.

Your Innovation Problem Is Really a Leadership Problem - Scott Anthony by Scott Anthony | 9:00 AM February 13, 2013 When Karl Ronn recently said, “Companies that think they have an innovation problem don’t have an innovation problem. They have a leadership problem,” I listened carefully. I featured Ronn, a former P&G executive (and current executive coach and entrepreneur), in several places in The Little Black Book of Innovation, most notably for his rant against the evils of focus groups. Ronn is thoughtful, widely read, a seasoned practitioner, and a great communicator. 8 Reasons Why We're About to See an Explosion in Robot Intelligence We are approaching a transformative expansion in robotics. Around half a billion years ago, life forms on Earth suddenly became significantly more diverse, creating most of the general classes of fauna and flora we know today. This period is known as the Cambrian explosion, and the leading theory to explain it is that certain traits, like vision, became advanced enough to help multiple species thrive.

How Afraid of Watson the Robot Should We Be? Watson was just 4 years old when it beat the best human contestants on Jeopardy! As it grows up and goes out into the world, the question becomes: How afraid of it should we be? Illustrations by Zohar Lazar On the first weekend of January, many of the leading researchers in artificial intelligence traveled to Puerto Rico to take part in an unusual private conference. Part of what made it unusual was its topic: whether the rise of intelligent machines would be good or bad for people, something endlessly discussed by the public but rarely by the scientists themselves.

When Creativity Trumps Ego, Everyone Wins At 72andSunny, a big part of the culture is how we think about “ownership” of ideas and the role of collaboration. And we think it has a good deal to do with the kind of work we make. We’ve fostered a culture of brave and generous people, where people have the confidence to share their ideas in the open and the generosity to allow other people on the team help iterate on them and improve the end product.

Accelerating change In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological (and sometimes social and cultural) progress throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future. While many have suggested accelerating change, the popularity of this theory in modern times is closely associated with various advocates of the technological singularity, such as Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil. Early observations[edit] The impossibility of being an expert: empowering physicians with new-new information The godfather of evidence-based medicine, Dr. David Sackett, said that the practice of evidence-based medicine integrates: Individual clinical expertiseA patient’s values and expectationsThe best available external clinical evidence. If a physician’s got the first issue covered, and a patient is very engaged in their health in full collaboration with their physician, there’s still the third issue to deal with: the proliferation of medical information and keeping up with the literature. It’s impossible to be an expert, claimed two Welsh med school professors in the British Medical Journal in an honest appraisal of the “avalanche of information.”

Product Development: 9 Steps for Creative Problem Solving [INFOGRAPHIC] Ronald Brown is a successful startup CEO with an extensive background in technology and consumer marketing. His new book, Anticipate. The Architecture of Small Team Innovation and Product Success is available via iTunes, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and Kobo.