Moore's law is the observation that, over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. The law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who described the trend in his 1965 paper. His prediction has proven to be accurate, in part because the law is now used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development. The capabilities of many digital electronic devices are strongly linked to Moore's law: processing speed, memory capacity, sensors and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras. All of these are improving at roughly exponential rates as well. The period is often quoted as 18 months because of Intel executive David House, who predicted that chip performance would double every 18 months (being a combination of the effect of more transistors and their being faster). History Gordon Moore in 2004 Network capacity.
Related: The Singularity
Technological SingularityThe technological singularity is the hypothesis that accelerating progress in technologies will cause a runaway effect wherein artificial intelligence will exceed human intellectual capacity and control, thus radically changing civilization in an event called the singularity. Because the capabilities of such an intelligence may be impossible for a human to comprehend, the technological singularity is an occurrence beyond which events may become unpredictable, unfavorable, or even unfathomable. The first use of the term "singularity" in this context was by mathematician John von Neumann. Proponents of the singularity typically postulate an "intelligence explosion", where superintelligences design successive generations of increasingly powerful minds, that might occur very quickly and might not stop until the agent's cognitive abilities greatly surpass that of any human. Basic concepts Superintelligence Non-AI singularity Intelligence explosion Exponential growth Plausibility
Chaos theoryA double rod pendulum animation showing chaotic behavior. Starting the pendulum from a slightly different initial condition would result in a completely different trajectory. The double rod pendulum is one of the simplest dynamical systems that has chaotic solutions. Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. Chaotic behavior can be observed in many natural systems, such as weather and climate. This behavior can be studied through analysis of a chaotic mathematical model, or through analytical techniques such as recurrence plots and Poincaré maps. Introduction Chaos theory concerns deterministic systems whose behavior can in principle be predicted. Chaotic dynamics The map defined by x → 4 x (1 – x) and y → x + y mod 1 displays sensitivity to initial conditions. In common usage, "chaos" means "a state of disorder". However, in chaos theory, the term is defined more precisely. where , and , is: .
קופסה שחורה · Redesign Magazineיערה רוזנבליט, "זיכרון ועיר". צילום: יעל פרבר לילה אחד, לוקיישן אחד, תערוכת רחוב אחת לפני שלוש שנים החלה יערה רוזנבליט, מורה ומחנכת ביום, אמנית ומאיירת ביתר הזמן, להציג תערוכות רחוב ללילה אחד בלבד בלוקיישנים מתחלפים בדרום תל אביב, תחת הכותרת "אמנות לכל פועלת". כבעלת תואר שני במגדר, עבודותיה מיטיבות להעביר ביקורת חברתית דרך דימויי גוף נשיים בלתי קונבנציונליים ובחינת הגבולות בין הפרטי לציבורי. בחודש שעבר, התכנסו מבקרים בסמטה באזור תעשייתי בדרום העיר, ובמקום להיכנס לבר בקרבת מקום, נמשכו לאורות שהבהבו מתערוכתה "זיכרון ועיר", שנוצרה בהשראת ספרו של איטאלו קאלווינו "הערים הסמויות מעין". בספר, מרקו פולו מספר לנכדו של ג'ינגיס חאן על היסטוריית הכיבושים שלו במסעותיו מסביב לעולם. "לאורך ההיסטוריה היו אלה גברים שטיילו בין ערים, גילו וכבשו אותן. בתערוכות הראשונות היא נהגה להשאיר את היצירות ברחוב, זמינות למי שעובר במקום לקחתן.
Moore's LawHumanity+ | Technology & the FutureEmerging Memetic Singularity in the Global Knowledge Society30 April 2009 | Draft IntroductionChecklist of constraintsVarieties of singularity -- Technological singularity | Cognitive singularity | Metasystem transition -- Communication singularity | Globality as singularity | Symmetry group singularity -- Subjective singularity | Spiritual singularity | Singularity of planetary consciousness -- Metaphorical singularityEnd times scenarios -- End of history | 2012 | Timewave theory | Eschatological scenarios | End of science -- End of culture | End of religion | End of civilization | End of security | End of privacy -- End of intelligence | End of ignorance | End of knowing | End of abundance | End of confidence -- End of hope | End of truth | End of faith | End of logic | End of rationality | End of modernism -- End of wisdom | End of tolerance | End of natureBlack holes and Event horizonsConclusion Introduction Historically these were a preoccupation of the Union of Intelligible Associations and are now a focus of Global Sensemaking.
Here's What the Signage of the Future Will Look LikeI was working on a blog post discussing how frightening some furturist predictions about technology can be when I found myself thinking about the header image more than the text. I am a visual thinker, so instead of going for a pre-existing image I decided to synthesize the picture myself—the results you can see in the gallery above. The idea behind working with signs came from trying to figure out how new technologies would interact with society in the very near future. I didn't want the technology itself to be obvious—we’ve already seen many clear images of what certain innovations are going to look like. So I thought I would depict their presence using something we’re acquainted to: signage and a tiny bit of humor. The goal of this project is to make viewers think about how far—and how fast—we want to go in this kind of technological race. See more of Fernando Barbella's work here.
Moore's Law 2A Cosmist ManifestoInstitute for Ethics and Emerging TechnologiesPaleofuture - Paleofuture BlogThe Law of Accelerating ReturnsButterfly effectIn chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependency on initial conditions in which a small change at one place in a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. The name of the effect, coined by Edward Lorenz, is derived from the theoretical example of a hurricane's formation being contingent on whether or not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks earlier. Although the butterfly effect may appear to be an unlikely behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems. For example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill may roll into any surrounding valley depending on, among other things, slight differences in its initial position. History Chaos theory and the sensitive dependence on initial conditions was described in the literature in a particular case of the three-body problem by Henri Poincaré in 1890. He later proposed that such phenomena could be common, for example, in meteorology. Illustration , then