Short Description of Three Tools Used in Foresight. Assembling a Futures / Foresight Toolkit – Wendy L Schultz – Medium. Extreme uncertainty making you uneasy?
Want to pivot from challenge to opportunity on the fulcrum of emerging change? It’s probably time for a skills update. First you may want to find out the full range of what’s on offer to supercharge your futures thinking. People new to futures research and foresight often think that scenario planning is the be all and end all of foresight. But there are at least six key activities in well-designed futures research, and dozens of tools available for each activity — and they all can be interconnected, intermixed, and layered. Here’s an example illustrating just a few design choices on your way to our futures: What’s your focus, or frame: why do you want to think about the future — what are you worried about? Do you feel comfortable using those tools? If you want help stocking your toolkit, just ask. Jigsaw Foresight: for more information, contact Wendy Schultz, or Victoria Ward.
Login - Dropbox. iMODELER. Mental Modeler - Fuzzy Logic Cognitive Mapping. The Augur beta test has begun! – The Augur Report. Is scenario planning back in vogue - Enterprise Times. Kinaxis and Deloitte Consulting LLP have announced an alliance to develop scenario planning capabilities for business supply chains.
The alliance is intended to create “what if” scenarios for large enterprise customers, so that they can make informed decisions and develop their end-to-end supply chains. The intention is to develop the capability in their clients to meet the demand of rapid market changes in real-time. This is the second announcement about supply chain scenario planning that we have covered in recent weeks. Plex announced enhancements to their supply chain solution to introduce scenario planning capability within their software. As the capability of software increases to support business decision making in this way it is a natural progression.
Appreciative Inquiry and the Power of Negative Thinking - InSpiral Pathways. Future Perspective Understanding Best Practice in Strategic Futures work 2011. Strategic Futures. Design Thinking Action Lab. All humans are born as creative beings, but as we grow up, school and work offer few opportunities to cultivate and apply our creativity.
At Stanford’s Hasso Plattner Institute of Design - known as the d.school - students of all disciplines learn the design thinking process as a methodology for creative and human-centered problem solving that empowers them to collaborate across disciplines and tackle the world’s biggest challenges. In this experiential course - free and open to all - you will learn the design thinking process by tackling a real world innovation challenge. As preparation for each stage of the challenge, you will explore the main design thinking concepts through short videos, each paired with brief activities to practice relevant methods and approaches. There will be one weekly assignment reporting on your progress, as well as weekly Google hangouts with the instructor. Empathize: understanding the needs of those you are designing for.
Workload. Prerequisites. . « Less. Rethinking the received wisdom on ‘foresight’ practices. Early in my PhD studies I reviewed the literature on so-called ‘foresight’ practices such as on scenario-building, scenario-based planning, and techno-economic modelling.
What came through clearly is that there is a dominant set of ideas about these practices. These ideas can be termed the received wisdom. Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids. I recently discussed scenario analysis with a well-known futurist.
After I had listened to his presentation of a set of six scenarios, he asked me what I thought. “It was beautifully written, if complex,” I replied. Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning. When scenario planning has worked well, it has proved enormously useful to a wide range of organizations as a tool for making decisions under uncertainty.
First popularized by Shell in the early 1970s, the approach should be a natural complement to other ways of developing strategy—especially when executives are as concerned about geopolitical dynamics as many are today. It would probably be more widely used if it hadn’t been such a disappointment to many executives. In fact, 40 percent of those we surveyed in 2013 described it as having little effectiveness.
Podcast Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning DownloadArticle narration That scenario planning often underdelivers, in our observation, can be a simple matter of insufficient experience. How to See the Future First. Manoftaste.de/Flickr One of the biggest challenges innovators face is to truly understand the market opportunity space before they start creating a strategy and well in advance of product development.
Since we can’t see the future, we need to gain some real insight from deep domain experts and make sense of possible scenarios. Even if the innovations are disruptive and the future is discontinuous, all we can really know is based on the data we have today. So it is through diligent inquiry and sense making that we get some general idea as to what will likely happen next. IRI 2038 Futures Study. Launch Date: May 2012 Wrap-up Date: November 2013 As part of IRI’s 75th Anniversary Celebration (2013) IRI commissioned the IRI2038 project, a futures initiative designed to answer the following two questions: How will possible future developments and events impact the art and science of research and technology management over the next 25 years?
Future_fabulators:new_approaches_and_needs_in_foresight [the libarynth] New Approaches And Needs In Foresight (workshop at FTA 2014 - 27 NOV 2014) short summary workshop “New approaches in FTA / foresight” at the EU FTA conference, November 2014 (based on notes from Cornelia Daheim)
Association of Professional Futurists - “Warming up your brain” using the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving. The Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) Some weeks ago I learned about the basics of TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving).
I find the method itself and also the history of its development fascinating. The development of TRIZ started during the mid 1940s in Russia. Round about 40.000 patents were analyzed to reveal patterns, similarities, differences and laws in order to formulate methods that help to standardize the problem solving processes*. One of the inventors TRIZ, Genrich Altshuller had to endure years in the gulag after he criticized the ignorance of the leadership regarding innovation and invention (Mishra 2006). The theory TRIZ assumes that typical solutions can be found for recurring problems and that psychological barriers like inertia hinder problem solving.
Clearly, TRIZ aims to find solutions to technical problems and does not intend to describe possible futures. Futures toolkit for policy-makers and analysts. HSC Toolkit - The tools. Use the techniques listing on the side of this page, or any page in the tools section, to go straight to that technique. Alternatively, you can use the buttons below to filter the techniques, based on four key attributes.
Scenario analysis tools (SAT) Exploring the future: tools for strategic futures thinking discusses 24 different futures techniques. Of these, five are also 'Scenario Analysis Tools' (SAT) and are shown as such in the techniques list. These five are particularly useful when interrogating the output produced by Scenarios. Future_fabulators:new_approaches_and_needs_in_foresight [the libarynth] The Art of Data Visualization: How to Tell Complex Stories Through Smart Design.
The volume of data in our age is so vast that whole new research fields have blossomed to develop better and more efficient ways of presenting and organizing information. One such field is data visualization, which can be translated in plain English as visual representations of information. The PBS “Off Book” series turned its attention to data visualization in a short video featuring Edward Tufte, a statistician and professor emeritus at Yale, along with three young designers on the frontiers of data visualization. Titled “The Art of Data Visualization,” the video does a good job of demonstrating how good design—from scientific visualization to pop infographics—is more important than ever. In much the same way that Marshall McLuhan spoke about principles of communication, Tufte talks in the video about what makes for elegant and effective design.
One of his main points: Look after truth and goodness, and beauty will look after herself. What does Tufte mean by this? Related Content: SCAN and Causal Layered Analysis. How do we make sense of story – the stories and narratives and anecdotes that people tell each other and themselves about their world? How can we link between the layers of story to help us make sense of some broader picture, or to derive a clearer view of some desired future? (This is a post I’d promised a colleague a long time back – this is me at last completing on that promise! One of the tools I often use for this purpose is Sohail Inayatullah’s Causal Layered Analysis (CLA).
Sometimes described as ‘poststructuralism as method’, the original paper on CLA shows that it was originally intended as a context-assessment and action-learning technique for strategic-foresight – which is where I first learnt it – but it has much broader applications in sensemaking and suchlike. The Thing From The Future – Situation Lab - OCADU.
The Thing From The Future is an award-winning imagination game that challenges players to collaboratively and competitively describe objects from a range of alternative futures. Decks cost USD $40 each, plus shipping. The object of the game is to come up with the most entertaining and thought-provoking descriptions of hypothetical objects from different near-, medium-, and long-term futures. Each round, players collectively generate a creative prompt by playing a card game. This prompt outlines the kind of future that the thing-to-be-imagined comes from, specifies what part of society or culture it belongs to, describes the type of object that it is, and suggests an emotional reaction that it might spark in an observer from the present. Players must then each write a short description of an object that fits the constraints of the prompt.
The Life Cycle Of Ideas. Every scientific idea has its day. Theories are born and experiments are designed; results are put to the test, then disproved or accepted as canon. As scientists discuss an idea, they cite the paper that proposed it in their own work. Then, as the conversation moves on, references to the paper drop off. How to see into the future. Foresight is the Secret Weapon of Success. Three Horizons – fields of future, full of foresight. I’d like to relate to parts of a book that came out in late 2013 from Bill Sharpe.
His book, or actually more a booklet, called “Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope”, published by Triarchy Press, has some really helpful insights. Methods.