SeaLevel.info. Are We Chasing Imaginary Numbers? Guest Essay by Kip Hansen Spoiler Alert: This essay is not about the mathematical entity the imaginary number.
I do think that an essay here about imaginary numbers of that sort would be interesting, but this isn’t going to be it. This essay, while not about the usual fare seen here – AGW; CAGW; Catastrophic Climate Change; Global Cooling; various oxides of carbon; the pH, level, or surface temperature of oceans; or the antics or ethics (or lack of ethics) of various international scientists and politicians — will hopefully be interesting to the majority of readers. It will ask more questions than it answers. Last Saturday, 3 October 2015, WUWT’s indefatigable Willis Eschenbach published a guest essay regarding an NPR radio report by Ira Flatow that labelled “some recent pictures of flooding in Miami, Florida, as evidence that climate change is real and is already affecting Florida.”
What are the questions here? SeaLevel.info - Mean Sea Level. The mean sea level (MSL) trend at Wismar, Germany is +1.43 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of ±0.11 mm/year, based on monthly mean sea level data from 1866/1 to 2015/12.
That is equivalent to a change of 0.47 feet in 100 years. (R‑squared = 0.368) The plot shows the monthly mean sea level without the regular seasonal fluctuations due to coastal ocean temperatures, salinities, winds, atmospheric pressures, and ocean currents. The long-term linear trend is also shown, in red, along with its 95% confidence interval. Sea Levels are Never Still. By Viv Forbes, Rosewood Qld Australia Sea levels have been rising and falling without any help from humans for as long as Earth’s oceans have existed.
The fastest and most alarming sea changes to affect mankind occurred at the end of the Pleistocene Ice Age. Seas rose about 130m about 12,000 years ago, at times rising at five metres per century. Sea Level Rise, Acceleration, and Closure. History falsifies climate alarmist sea level claims. Seas have been rising and falling for thousands of years – without help from the EPA or IPCC Guest essay by Robert W.
Endlich Sea levels are rising rapidly! Coastal communities are becoming more vulnerable to storms and storm surges! Small island nations are going to disappear beneath the waves! 35 Scientific Papers: Global Sea Levels Were 1 – 2 Meters Higher Than Now For Most Of The Last 7,000 Years. CO2 Concentration Changes Do Not Drive Sea Levels From about 7000 years ago to 2000 years ago, or from the Mid- to Late-Holocene, atmospheric CO2 concentrations varied between only about 260 and 270 parts per million, or ppm.
Such low CO2 concentrations are believed to be “safe” for the planet, as they are significantly lower than today’s levels, which have eclipsed 400 ppm in recent years. These high CO2 concentrations are believed to cause dangerous warming, rapid glacier melt, and catastrophic sea level rise. And yet, despite the surge in anthropogenic CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 since the 20th century began, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that global sea levels only rose by 1.7 mm/yr during the entire 1901-2010 period, which is a rate of less than 7 inches (17 cm) per century. Asian sea levels changed rapidly 6,000 years ago — natural sea level rise “unprecedented”
If you thought seas were constant 6,000 years ago… Microatolls are apparently very accurate proxy for sea levels, giving a higher resolution estimate of sea levels.
But the extra data suggests more natural oscillations in seas than the experts used to think. Six thousand years ago, near Indonesia, seas apparently rose and fell twice by as much as 60 centimeters in a 250 year period. A similar pattern happened 2,600km away in SE China. Temperatures, Sea Levels ‘Naturally’ Rise 30 – 40 Times Faster Than Today’s Rates. By Kenneth Richard on 13.
April 2017 Modern Temperatures Only Rising 0.05°C/Decade Since 1850, CO2 concentrations have risen from 285 ppm to 400 ppm. During these ~165 years, the IPCC has concluded that surface temperatures have warmed by 0.78°C. This is a warming rate of only 0.05°C per decade for 1850-2012 — which happens to be the same rate of warming over the 1998-2012 period. IPCC AR5 (2013): “The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C over the period 1880 to 2012, when multiple independently produced datasets exist. Flashback 1978: Scientist Predicts 10°C Warming, 5 Meter Sea Level Rise, 660 ppm CO2…By 2028! 1978: 5 Meter Sea Level Rise By 2028 2015: 10 Feet Sea Level Rise By 2065 Forecasting human-caused climate disaster is anything but new.
Nearly 40 years ago, a landmark paper was published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature providing a dapper rubric for the modern human-caused climate disaster papers to follow. The Mercer (1978) “…a threat of disaster” paper introduced above was fraught with presumptions, guesswork, and spectacularly wrong predictions about the connections between fossil fuel consumption by humans and future carbon dioxide (CO2) parts per million (ppm) concentrations, the melting of polar ice sheets, and an impeding sea level rise disaster. New Video : “Is Manhattan Going To Drown Due To Global Warming” German Review: Sea Level Rise Way Below Projections – No Hard Basis For Claims Of Accelerating Rise. Acclimatise Climate Change Adaptation Consultants - Welcome to the Acclimatise Network - Climate change adaptation news for businesses and governments. By Luke Jackson, University of Oxford “Sea-level rise” is a loaded statement and instils concern, scepticism and humour.
From a sceptical stand point one could think about your own experience. I have been going to the beach near my parents’ house on the south coast of England for nearly 30 years. In all that time I can’t ever remember paddling in the water and thinking, “gosh, this is higher than it was last year”. New website gives you the real deal on sea level rise and rates. New analysis and graphing tools for sea-level data at SeaLevel.info Guest essay by David Burton now has interactive regression analysis (line/curve fitting) and visualization (graphing) tools available for mean sea level (MSL) measurements from over 1200 tide gauges, plus spreadsheets which combine various subsets of that data.
This article is intended as a primer, for how to use these new tools. But first, a few notes: Note #1: This is a work in progress. Note #2: These tools are my free contribution to the community. Note #3: These tools are ideologically neutral. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. By Paul Homewood The government has now published its latest UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017, something it is obliged to do every five years by the Climate Change Act 2008. The assessment looks to be wholly based on the report of the same name, published last July by the Committee on Climate Change, (CCC). I think you might see the problem here! The CCC was established under the Climate Change Act, and filled by the government with people who, for various reasons, want to push the global warming agenda.
It is called an independent statutory body, but is no such thing. And so we close the circle. The Risk Assessment has six categories of risk: As I have repeatedly shown, there is no evidence that heavy rainfall is increasing in England & Wales, though this may be the case in Scotland. Fake USGS Scientists Predict Two Meters Of Sea Level Rise. From Ice to High Seas: synthesis report of ice2sea. Final meeting of ice2sea highlights sophisticated new modelling techniques to measure ice-melt contribution to future sea-level rise PR No. 07/2013 On Wednesday, 15th May scientists from the major European Union programme ice2sea met in London at the Royal Institution of Great Britain to discuss four years of research into how to better understand and model ice-melt and its contribution to sea-level rise. Stakeholders have been presented with a document that summarises the work done and key findings from more than 150 ice2sea scientific papers published since 2009 in respected scientific journals around the world.
The programme was born out of an urgent call for research by the international community following the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC AR4) in 2007, which identified the uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet contributions to sea-level rise as a key problem that must be addressed. The new ice2sea report’s summary of outcomes states,
No, climate change didn’t cause “5 Whole Pacific Islands” to be swallowed by sea level rise. From the reason #75 why we don’t subscribe to “Scientific American” anymore department. 4 New Papers Suggest Falling Sea Levels More Harmful To Corals Than Rapidly Rising Sea Levels. By Kenneth Richard on 16. March 2017. Sea Level Decline Over The Past 1,700 Years. A Historic Perspective on the Greenland Ice Sheet and its Contribution to Global Sea Level. Paper Reviewed Vasskog, K., Langebroek, P.M., Andrews, J.T., Nilsen, J.E.Ø. and Nesje, A. 2015. Greenland Ice Melt Has Caused Only 7 Millimeters Of Sea Level Rise From 2002 To 2011! Greenland isn’t melting rapidly after all. We keep hearing that melting there has been accelerating, and that if it melted, sea levels would rise a catastrophic 7 meters. New data just released by the Helmholtz Centre in Potsdam, Germany, shows that over the last 10 years only 240 gigatons of ice have melted.
Spiegel Report: “Greenland Melting More Slowly Than Expected” …Sea Level Rise Alarm Called Off! Antarctica And Greenland Melt Accelerating, Study Claims. By P Gosselin on 9. March 2011 According to innovations-report.de, a new paper on Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet melt will be published in the Geophysical Research Letters later this month. Recent Sea-Level Change at Major Cities. Guest essay by Rich Taylor Abstract. NOAA Jumps The Shark In Tampa Bay. 3 New Papers: Global Seas Now Rising About 2 Inches Per Century … Claims Of 1 Meter Rise By 2100 ‘Sheer Nonsense’
According to the most highly-cited estimate of recent (1992 – 2011) polar ice sheet melt rates, the land ice on Greenland and Antarctica has been contributing to sea level rise at a rate of 0.59 mm/year in the modern era, which means the equivalent of 5.9 centimeters (2.3 inches) per century of sea level rise might eventually accrue if the polar ice sheets continue melting at current rates for the next 10 decades.
Shepherd et al., 2012 Since 1992 [through 2011], the polar ice sheets [Antarctica and Greenland] have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise. If Sea Level Was Rising, Wouldn’t Someone Have Noticed? Sea Level Rises: Fact or Fiction? North American Case Study - Principia Scientific International. Atlantic City Sea Level, Diving Horses, and Modeling of Ice Sheet Changes. “Atlantic City Gambles on Rising Seas” Watts Up With That? The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. Sea level rise – or land subsidence? New Paper: Lower Arctic Sea Level Rise Estimated At Only 1.5 Millimeters Per Year!
No Sea Level Rise At Lower Manhattan For 20 Years. NASA Hiding The Decline In Sea Level And Temperature. Sea Level Rise: Just the Facts. Floating Islands. Does Global Warming Cause Coastal Reef Islands to Disappear? New Evidence That Reef Islands Can Repair Storm Wave Damage. How Are Earth's Islands Being Impacted by Rising Sea Levels? A New Refutation of Dangerous CO2-Induced Global Warming.