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The Big Cycles Over The Last 500 Years. Destined for War: Can China and the United States Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Based on the current trajectory, war between the United States and China in the decades ahead is not just possible, but much more likely than recognized at the moment.

Destined for War: Can China and the United States Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

Indeed, judging by the historical record, war is more likely than not. Moreover, current underestimations and misapprehensions of the hazards inherent in the U.S. -China relationship contribute greatly to those hazards. A risk associated with Thucydides’s Trap is that business as usual—not just an unexpected, extraordinary event—can trigger large-scale conflict. Can China Use the Pandemic to Displace the US?

Distrust of Beijing may be growing, but so too is alarm over Washington's ineptitude.

Can China Use the Pandemic to Displace the US?

As in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, many observers are speculating that the coronavirus pandemic will boost China’s global influence, and diminish the United States’. It is not difficult to understand their reasoning. The United States has more than 1.2 million confirmed COVID-19 infections, over four times as many as second-place Spain. More than 26 million Americans filed jobless claims through the week ending on April 18, probably putting the country’s unemployment rate in the neighborhood of 20 percent, and the International Monetary Fund forecasts that the American economy will contract by nearly six percent this year. The U.S. response to the pandemic has gone from insouciance to incoherence, with the federal government and state governments increasingly clashing over how best to balance the imperatives of safeguarding public health and stimulating economic recovery.

The Pandemic Will Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It. We are going through what by every measure is a great crisis, so it is natural to assume that it will prove to be a turning point in modern history.

The Pandemic Will Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It

In the months since the appearance of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, analysts have differed over the type of world the pandemic will leave in its wake. Www.chathamhouse. As the COVID-19 crisis roars on, so have debates about China’s role in it.


Based on what is known, it is clear that some Chinese officials made a major error in late December and early January, when they tried to prevent disclosures of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, even silencing healthcare workers who tried to sound the alarm. China’s leaders will have to live with these mistakes, even if they succeed in resolving the crisis and adopting adequate measures to prevent a future outbreak. What is less clear is why other countries think it is in their interest to keep referring to China’s initial errors, rather than working toward solutions.

For many governments, naming and shaming China appears to be a ploy to divert attention from their own lack of preparedness. WHO Can Do Better - But Halting Funding is No Answer. Donald Trump is impulsive.

WHO Can Do Better - But Halting Funding is No Answer

His sudden decision to stop funding the World Health Organization (WHO) just days after calling it 'very China-centric” and 'wrong about a lot of things' is the latest example. And this in the midst of the worst pandemic since Spanish flu in 1918 and a looming economic crisis compared by some to the 1930s. But the decision is not really just about what WHO might or might not have done wrong.

Middle East

Populism. Héroes del fracaso. Nadie está al mando.

Héroes del fracaso

Y quien menos, el presidente de Estados Unidos en su calidad de líder del mundo libre, un título rancio y obsoleto al menos desde 2017. Este hundimiento tiene ya una abundante literatura, especialmente sobre el reino del caos en que se ha convertido la Casa Blanca, a las órdenes de un tipo inepto y mentiroso. Dentro de este género, auténtica colección de historias de horror presidenciales, está creciendo otro subgénero de enorme interés político e histórico, que trasciende el anecdotario de un presidente errático, despótico y corrupto. Son las memorias y biografías que nos cuentan el declive de la diplomacia de Estados Unidos, una élite formada por los auténticos artífices del orden internacional construido en los últimos 70 años y ahora en pleno desmoronamiento.


Global Leadership: Hegemony Shift in Times of COVID-19. Global, Global Geopolitics, Headlines, TerraViva United Nations Opinion Manuel Manonelles is Associate Professor of International Relations, Blanquerna/University Ramon Llull, Barcelona Wuhan City.

Global Leadership: Hegemony Shift in Times of COVID-19

Credit: UNESCO - We have long speculated on the moment when the shift of global leadership from the United States to China would take place. Coronavirus crisis will send globalization into reverse. With each passing day the economic severity of the coronavirus crisis grows clearer.

Coronavirus crisis will send globalization into reverse

A global recession is now certain, along with crunching falls in trade. Ironically, many of the Asian nations that responded most effectively to the pandemic are now likely to be hit hardest by its fallout: it will hasten decoupling between the U.S. and China and accelerate the collapse of the trade-dependent model of globalization upon which so many Asian economies rely. America Should Build an International Coalition Now. The tasks for such a coalition are vital to protecting our own citizens.

America Should Build an International Coalition Now

For example, a coalition can establish screening standards for international airports; mobilize global resources for the development, testing, and rapid deployment of a vaccine; and collect best practices from countries, such as South Korea and Singapore, that responded effectively to the virus. The partnership should mobilize and direct resources for mass production and deployment of testing kits to potential outbreak zones, including camps for the displaced in the Middle East where the virus can resurge; push for free exchange of information from medical experts and scientists, keeping such crucial exchanges above geostrategic competitions; and help locate, organize, and send essential equipment to areas with critical shortages, including American cities.

Read: The coronavirus-denial movement now has a leader Indeed, coalition building is not philanthropic. - Panorama Geopolítico de los Conflictos 2019. Panorama Geopolítico de los Conflictos 2019 La presentación del documento se realizará el 4 de marzo de 2020 a las 18:00 en el CESEDEN.

- Panorama Geopolítico de los Conflictos 2019

How the US can help ease Idlib's catastrophe (opinion) On March 15, the Syrian civil war will enter its 10th year. In the days ahead of this sad anniversary, the US announced Tuesday an additional $108 million aid package to provide essentials like food, medical care and safe drinking water to the estimated 3 million people trapped in the province. However, not only is the $108 million too little to make a major difference, but President Donald Trump's administration has not put forward a plan that will enable effective delivery of this aid, given Russia and China's December veto of a UN Security Council plan on cross-border aid to Syria.

On Wednesday, a Syrian defector testifying before the US Senate Foreign Relations begged Washington to take action to protect civilians rather than to give more money to alleviate their suffering.

Asuntos Nucleares

The Shia Vs. The “Shia Crescent” On February 15, 2020, Hezbollah organized a ceremony to unveil a statue of Qassem Soleimani in the Lebanese town of Maroun al-Ras, roughly half a mile from the border with Israel. The statue shows Soleimani with his arm stretched out in front of him, pointing toward Israel. While Hezbollah’s officials and supporters were celebrating at the Lebanese-Israeli borders, the Lebanese people were commemorating four months of dynamic but painful protests against the Lebanese political class, whose corruption and failed policies have led to Lebanon’s financial collapse.

In Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, and inside Iran itself – the countries that fall along the Shia Crescent - the people have realized that the enemy is within. How to Recapture the Muslim World’s Lost Hope. The challenges are so immense, the dynamics seemingly so intractable, and the players so entrenched that it is easy to conclude there really is no way out. But Iran and Saudi Arabia have found their way to détente before. Before sectarian militias ran amok, there had not been systematic violence between Sunnis and Shias for centuries.

During my travels, I was humbled and even exhilarated as I interviewed leading activists, writers, clerics, and others who have fought for decades for more freedoms, more tolerance, more light. Their defiance is a source of hope, their steadiness contagious. These people are the past and the future, and they aren’t alone. What's really going on with the US and Iran? On Jan. 2 a US drone fired a missile on a car caravan leaving the Baghdad airport, killing Iranian Major General Qassem Suleimani and leaders of Iraqi militia groups. The Trump administration claims the attack eliminated terrorists planning attacks on US forces. Barcelona’s Experiment in Radical Democracy. Barcelona City Hall looks like it’s been occupied by protesters. A banner over the entrance to the fourteenth-century building reads, in Catalan, “Free Political Prisoners”—a reference to Catalan pro-independence activists, some of whom have been prosecuted while others were forced into exile by the national government in Madrid.

The banner was placed here by the city government, which is indeed run by protesters: the ruling coalition of Mayor Ada Colau has its roots in the Indignados, the anti-austerity movement that’s often referred to as Spain’s precursor to Occupy Wall Street. (Colau is not herself a supporter of Catalan independence; more on that later.) Barcelona is the heart of a new global political phenomenon known as municipalism. Last weekend, municipalist activists from North America, Europe, and Africa met in New York City for the third Fearless Cities summit. What EU “Geopolitical” Power Will Cost by Daniel Gros. Ursula Von der Leyen, the new president of the European Commission, has promised to position the European Union as a geopolitical power that is capable of holding its own against the United States and a rising China. But the EU may come to regret any attempt to parlay its economic strength into geopolitical clout. LONDON – With former German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen assuming the presidency of the European Commission, the European Union now has a new executive.

Von der Leyen has promised to lead a “geopolitical” Commission, believing that Europe needs to be more assertive in its relations with other countries, and more hard-nosed in pursuing its own interests around the world, particularly vis-à-vis the other large powers. What the INF Treaty’s Collapse Means for Nuclear Proliferation. On Friday, the United States is set to withdraw from a Cold War–era agreement, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, that banned Washington and Moscow from using certain types of missiles. The end of the treaty could spark a new nuclear arms race. What’s in the treaty? More From Our Experts Signed by U.S. - Are you a robot? Military Competition in Perspective. Introduction. City Diplomacy Has Been on the Rise. Policies Are Finally Catching Up. It's No Secret Why Republicans Win. - The Washington Post. The Road From Thatcherism by Paola Subacchi. La chute du mur de Berlin.

On se souvient de l’émotion générée par le concert du célèbre musicien soviétique Mstislav Rostropovitch à cette occasion. La chute du mur est devenue le symbole de la fin de la Guerre froide – et pourtant, des évènements antérieurs et postérieurs mériteraient autant ce titre. En juin 1989, les élections semi-libres en Pologne ont amené au pouvoir, deux mois plus tard, le premier chef de gouvernement dans le bloc soviétique issu de l’opposition au communisme, Tadeusz Mazowiecki. Pendant l’été 1989, les Est-Allemands en vacances en Hongrie ont profité de l’ouverture de la frontière avec l’Autriche pour chercher refuge en Allemagne de l’Ouest.

Global Governance

Estudios Estratégicos. How the United States Could Lose a War Against China and Russia. The U.S. armed forces are now preparing for an age of great-power competition and rightly so. The 2018 National Defense Strategy shows the Defense Department is focused on the threats posed by Russia and especially China to U.S. interests, allies, and established partners such as Taiwan. Representation: Edmund Burke, Speech to the Electors of Bristol. China. How soybeans became China's most powerful weapon in Trump's trade war. Soya Want a Trade War. U.S. Falls Behind as Soybean Exports From Brazil to China Soar.

Can multilateralism survive the Sino-American rivalry? International Politics and Society - IPS. VID 20190716 WA0009. México debe optar por una diplomacia firme, inteligente y digna – Español. No Ministério das Relações Exteriores do Peru, Gladson Cameli pede retorno dos voos internacionais « Notícias do Acre.

How to Save the State Department. Machinations of Wicked Men. Former USTR Charlene Barshefsky on the obstacles to a US-China trade deal. White House blocked intelligence agency’s written testimony calling climate change ‘possibly catastrophic’ Special Edition: Xi and Putin's Budding Bromance. Occidente frente al laberinto turco - Pólemos. Council of Despair? The Fragmentation of UN Diplomacy. Why Is No One Talking About UNSC Reform Anymore?

China Will Be the True Winner of a U.S.-Iran War. The Road From Thatcherism by Paola Subacchi. Safari Feb 26, 2018 at 10:34. China Has More Leverage Thank You Think in the Trade War. Taking Stock of a Shifting World Order. The End of the End of History? The Ideological War of Comparable Powers in a Small World. The Trump-Netanyahu Alliance. How the UK lost the Brexit battle. El nuevo maoismo de Xi Jinping. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is a Russian trap - Putin’s pipeline. How Liberals Can Use Nationalism for Good. Message. A simple explanation of the Brexit legal issues - in 2 minutes! From #Article50 to #WithdrawalAgreement, #NorthernIreland #Backstop & #EU #citizensrights - to where we're at now.… - The Washington Post. 190123 Cost of War. The Secret to Winning in 2020. Populism is rooted in politics, not economics.

The political roots of falling wage growth. Is This the Beginning of a New Cold War? The History of American Nationalism. Will China Rule The World? A New Center Being Born. Measuring, and Managing, More Sustainable Growth by Diane Coyle. Why a US-China Tariff Ceasefire Is Coming Soon by Anatole Kaletsky. Defending Democracy in the Americas by Jorge G. Castañeda. From cyber to military mobility: EU members endorse new defense objectives. Geoestrategia y panorama energético global. Por (*) Coronel José Pardo de Santayana.

What the Paris Peace Forum tells us about France—and about the world. Subscribe to read. Images. Perspectivas de la cooperación chino-peruana. Why the Belt and Road Initiative is important for Peru? - Opinion. Jan-Werner Müller · Capitalism in One Family: The Populist Moment · LRB 1 December 2016. We can rebuild global fisheries despite warming oceans. RSI N 34. 21.08.2018. Why Realism Explains the World. US secretary of defence visits key Latin America allies to boost defence relations. Jan-Werner Müller · Capitalism in One Family: The Populist Moment · LRB 1 December 2016. Informe elcano 22 por que importa america latina. El putinismo, sistema político de Rusia.