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Solar Activity and Regional Climate Patterns

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Solar Plasma Temperature is plunging – should we worry? Guest post by David Archibald, The solar plasma temperature has plunged to a new low for the instrument record. Coincidentally or not, the temperature of the southern hemisphere has also plunged over the last couple of weeks. When do we start worrying? Figure 1: Temperature of the solar wind plasma As Figure 1 shows, the temperature of the solar wind has hit a new low for the instrument record. Figure 2: Alpha particle to proton ratio in the solar wind Similarly the alpha particle to proton ratio has hit a new low for the almost 50 years of the instrument record.

Figure 3: Solar wind flow pressure Solar wind flow pressure has hit a new low for the instrument record. It is the solar wind flow pressure combined with the Sun’s magnetic field that reduces the flux of galactic cosmic rays reaching the Earth. Figure 4: Kp Index The Kp–index is a global auroral activity indicator on a scale from 0 to 9. Figure 5: Ap Index 1967 to 2020 Figure 6: 2 metre temperature anomaly for 2020 Like this: Related. Scientists: Climate Records ‘Correlate Well’ With Solar Modulation…A Grand Solar Minimum Expected By 2030. International and NASA solar scientists find their Total Solar Irradiance reconstruction extending to 1700 can “correlate well” with Earth’s global temperature records, including a positive net TSI trend during 1986-2008. A new Grand Solar Minimum is expected to commence during the 2030s. Surface climate records that have been uncorrupted by coastal (ocean-air)/urbanization biases suggest there has been a long-term oscillation in temperature since 1900, with peaks during the 1920s-1940s and again during recent decades (Lansner and Pepke Pedersen, 2018).

Image Source: Lansner and Pepke Pedersen, 2018 An analysis by Soon et al. (2015) (full paper) indicated Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures from rural locations (unaffected by artificial urban heat) aligned well with trends in solar activity since the 19th century. Image Source: Soon et al. (2015) Image Source: Scafetta et al., 2019. New Study: The Sun And Volcanoes Caused The Pause. New Met Office study suggests natural factors, including the sun, are the biggest reason behind “the pause” Solar Activity Flat Lines…Cycle 24 Weakest In 200 Years…Link To Recent Northern Hemisphere Ice Rebound? As the current solar cycle nears an end, it will go down as the weakest in close to 200 years. And as inhabitants of the northern hemisphere dig themselves out of an especially icy and snowy winter and Arctic sea ice rebounds, it may all be in part linked to low solar activity as many scientific studies have long suggested. ================================================= The Sun in March 2018 By Frank Bosse and Prof.

Fritz Vahrenholt(Translated /edited by P Gosselin) In March our supplier of energy was more inactive than in the previous months. A sunspot was detected only on 6 of 31 days. Figure 1: The current solar cycle no. 24 (red) compared to the mean of the previous 23 recorded solar cycles (blue) and the similar solar cycle no. 5 (black). Sunspots are magnetic phenomena. The SDO instrument is able to determine the polarity of the magnetic field for each sunspot, and provided this image: Is that the end of cycle 24, some 20 months before the expected month no. 132?

Certainly not. Solar input to high latitudes and the global ice volume. By Donald Rapp, Ralf Ellis and Clive Best A review of the relationship between the solar input to high latitudes and the global ice volume over the past 2.7 million years. Abstract While there is ample evidence that variations in solar input to high altitudes is a “pacemaker” for the alternating glacial and interglacial periods over the past ~ 2.7 my, there are two major difficulties with the standard Milankovitch theory: (i) The different cadence of the glacial periods prior to the MPT (41 ky) and after the MPT (88 to 110 ky).

(ii) The reason why so many precessional maxima in solar input to high latitudes fail to produce terminations in the post-MPT era; yet every fourth or fifth one does produce a rather sudden termination. Raymo et al. (2006) proposed an explanation for the first difficulty in terms of global ice volume resulting from the sum of an out of phase growth and decline of northern and southern ice sheets. Introduction Figure 1. The Last Five ice ages Figure 2.

In which: E. E. NOAA and NASA Admit the Sun NOT CO2 is Causing the Arctic Sea Ice to Disappear – CO2 is Life. The above video from NOAA clearly identifies warmer arctic oceans as the cause of the thinning and shrinking of the Arctic Sea Ice. CO2 is NEVER mentioned. NASA’ Goddard’s Institute for Space Studies explains that the warming of the Arctic is due to 5% more solar radiation being absorbed since 2000. CO2 is transparent to the incoming warming visible radiation that warms the earth and oceans. CO2 traps a small amount of outgoing IR between 13 and 18µ, wavelengths that don’t penetrate or warm the oceans. NOAA and NASA appear to understand the real cause of the loss of Arctic Sea Ice, incoming solar radiation. The one thing they don’t and can’t do is explain how increasing CO2 can somehow make more visible radiation reach the oceans and surface of the earth. Read More: NOAA’s Arctic report card released at #AGU17.

Solar cyclic variability can modulate winter Arctic climate. Winter Arctic sea-ice extent during Solar Max and Min years and air temperature trend The extent of Arctic sea ice during winter is currently declining at a rate of about 3% per decade. Superimposed on that long-term trend are periods of higher and lower sea ice extent. Alongside a decline in the winter sea ice extent (Fig. 1a), there is also a long-term declining trend of the solar eleven-year cycle. Table 1 shows years of solar Max and Min with solar cycle numbers and those years are marked in Fig. 1a.

From 1979 to 2003, there have been five SSN Max (red) and five Min years (blue) each. After 2003, we observe a total of 12 Min SSN years, and only one Max year of 2014 (Fig. 1a, top panel). Time series plot (a) of SSN (DJF), [a, top panel] and Arctic sea-ice extent (DJF) anomaly (million sq-km) with respect to mean [a, bottom panel] during 1979–2016. Solar signals in Arctic surface climate and vertical structure around the Troposphere Our initial work focused on composite technique.

Sunspots: Labitzke Meets Bonferroni. New paper attempts to link solar cycles and streamflows. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and their relationship with sunspots. A Warning from the Dead. Guest post by David Archibald Following on from this post on the effect of excess water in the Midwest affecting planting, this graphic shows rainfall in the 30 days up to 26th May: Figure 1: Rainfall in the Midwest in the 30 days to 26th May.

One place had almost an inch a day on average with a maximum of 28.25 inches. And what follows? The answer is more rain as shown by this seven day forecast: Figure 2: Precipitation Forecast to 06/02/2019 The same area is going to get another four to five inches. The Bonnet Carre Spillway 12 miles west of New Orleans has had more use in recent years as show by this figure: Figure 3: Bonnet Carre Spillway openings 1948 – 2019 and F10.7 flux The last time there was a cluster of opening was during the 1970s cooling period associated with the weak Solar Cycle 20. The story so far is that a lot of the corn crop in the northern Corn Belt didn’t get planted this year due to excess water on the ground and there will be a big flood of the Mississippi valley. Low Solar Activity Points To Colder Than Normal 2020/21 European Winter.

SnowFan here reports on the latest winter forecasts for the 2020/21 Europe winter. History and statistics show Europe could be in for a frosty winter. Currently a significant La Nina is shaping up, and history shows that these events in the Pacific have an impact on Europe’s winters: The NOAA reanalysis above shows the temperature deviations (left) and for precipitation (right) from the WMO average 1981-2010 during the six La Niña years of winter in Europe.

Large parts of Europe have average temperatures and precipitation is distributed differently, with Germany being slightly drier overall than the WMO average. Is a 2020/21 winter in Germany under La Niña conditions shaping up to have average temperatures and slightly less humidity? Strong winter-solar correlation A more important factor determining winter in Europe may be solar activity. The following chart shows the December-January-February cold temperature anomalies occurring in the times of low solar activity (circled): Scientists Continue To Affirm Rising Incoming Solar Radiation Drives Recent Warming In Europe. By Kenneth Richard on 11. March 2021 Two new studies refer to the natural decline in cloud and aerosol reflectivity and consequent rise in incoming solar radiation or sunlight duration as the explanation for warming trends across Europe. CO2 is not even mentioned as a factor in climate change.

Scientists point out that, for Europe, “the decrease in cloud cover is caused by the predominance of high-pressure systems in the last two decades of the 20th century and in the second decade of the 21st century” (Bartoszek et al., 2021). Because there is less solar radiation reflected to space by clouds (and sulphate aerosols), Europe has experienced an increase of “1.9 and 2.4 Wm−²” per decade−¹ in incoming solar radiation (S) and shortwave radiation imbalance (S*), respectively, from 1983-2015 (Kejna et al., 2021).

Image Source: Bartoszek et al., 2021 Image Source: Kejna et al., 2021 Image Source: Posselt et al., 2014 Image Source: Pinker et al., 2005 Image Source: Swift, 2018. New Studies Show Solar Activity Has Major Impact On Europe’s Climate, Cannot Be Dismissed. New Findings From German Scientists Show Changes in Precipitation Over Europe Linked To Solar Activity. A significant number of scientists say that the Earth’s climate is in large part impacted by solar activity, and less so by trace gas CO2 concentration. German scientists present new findings showing a link between solar activity and precipitation in Europe. ================================================= A balanced level of precipitation provides the basis for a wide range of economic and social activities in Europe.

Particularly agriculture, drinking water supply and inland waterway transport are directly affected. But what is behind the strong changes? The chance discovery by an agricultural scientist from Münster, Germany, now suggests that in certain months that rain over Germany and other parts of Europe follows a pattern that up to now has remained undetected. Fig. 1. After detailed examination it was clear that this rhythm correlated closely with the activity of the sun: the well-documented 11-year sunspot cycle. Europe data examined Fig. 3. Solar signal found in other months.

French Study: Mediterranean Storm Activity Linked To Solar Activity, Has Nothing To Do With CO2. Sebastian Lüning recently wrote a piece on a new study by a French team of scientists. Conclusion: Mediterranean storm activity decreases during warm periods and there appears to be a solar link. ========================================== The worst storms at the French Mediterranean coast? Always when the sun was weak and temperatures declined! The area of the Mediterranean Sea is regarded as a region that reacts especially sensitively to climate fluctuations.

A French team of scientists led by geologist Pierre Sabatier studied in detail how storms and global warming behaved historically in the region. The scientists studied changes in the deposits in the lagoon, which today are covered by 60 cm of water. Using various indicators, the French scientists identified seven periods of increased solar activity: 6300-6100 years ago, 5650-5400 years ago, 4400-4050 years ago, 3650-3200 years ago, 2800-2600 years ago, 1950-1400 years ago and 400-50 years ago.

And what did this comparison yield? Solar Activity Modulates the Frequency of Central European Floods. Paper Reviewed Czymzik, M., Muscheler, R. and Brauer, A. 2016. Solar modulation of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on inter-annual to multi-centennial timescales. Climate of the Past 12: 799-805. According to Czymzik et al. (2016), "solar influences on climate variability are one of the most controversially discussed topics in climate research.

" And thus intrigued by this state of affairs, they go on to describe how they analyzed "solar forcing of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on inter-annual to multi-centennial timescales," based on their study of daily discharge data of southern Germany's River Ammer back to AD 1926 (which encompassed solar cycles 16-23), along with the 5500-year flood-layer record they derived from analyses of varved sediments of the downstream Ammersee River.

Scottish Sunspots. Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [See Update At End] In a recent post, Anthony published Leif Svalgaard’s new paper showing 9,000 years of reconstructed solar activity. Svalgaard paper: Reconstruction of 9000 years of Solar Activity In the discussion, someone pointed out that the “Maunder Minimum”, a time of very low solar activity, corresponds with the coldest decade in a long-term reconstruction of summer temperatures in Scotland.

Their temperature reconstruction is based on a group of pine tree-ring records spanning 800 years. Their graph is shown below: As you can see, the period around 1690 is extremely cold. However, as you may know if you follow my work, I like to take the largest look at the longest data that I can find. Now, the commenter was indeed correct that the low temperature in 1690 was during the Maunder Minimum. However, the other minima do not line up with much of anything. Then we have the Maunder Minimum. However, this doesn’t appear to be the case, viz: w. Like this: Strong Link Between Solar Activity And Rapid Cooling (2-3°C/Century) In China During The Last 5000 Years. By Kenneth Richard on 5. July 2021 China’s climate history includes multiple climate warming and cooling fluctuations of 4°C within centuries, with cold periods aligning with declines in solar irradiance.

According to a new study (Zhang et al., 2021), northern China’s coldest temperatures of the last 5000 years occurred 300 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), coinciding with the Little Ice Age and a decrease in solar irradiance. This frigid period was was followed by a ~4°C warm-up (from about 3.5°C to 7.5°C) within the span of about 150 years during the middle of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1912 CE), which was well before anthropogenic CO2 emissions began sharply rising. The warmest temperatures of the last millennium occurred during the Medieval Warm Period (Song Dynasty, 960-1279 CE). Image Source: Zhang et al., 2021 The Zhang et al. study above only uses a 30-year (climate-length) sampling resolution to document temperature changes over the last 5000 years.

Land Of The Warming Sun: Japan Has Seen Solar Radiation Rise 10% Over Past 60 Years! By Pierre Gosselinand Kirye Today any warming found anywhere almost always gets blamed on heat supposedly getting trapped by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Moreover, activist scientists insist we ignore all other powerful factors such as solar and oceanic cycles. In fact these activists have become so extreme that they insist that record cold today is caused by warming. But as people learned already in the first grade, the earth’s surface warms when the sun shines on it, and tends to cool when clouds obstruct the sun.

Solar radiation at the surface has risen over the past decades In Japan, the Japanese Meteorology Agency (JMA) has 8 stations that measure solar radiation reaching the surface, and many other for recording temperature. Data from the 8 stations recording solar radiation are plotted since 1999 (i.e. 20 years) as follows: Data source: JMA The black curve with the dashed linear trend line in the middle of the pack is the mean of all 8 stations. Data Source: JMA. Data from JMA. Researcher: More Evidence Extreme Weather In Japan, Global Cooling, Linked To Solar Activity.

New Study Shows Southeast Asia Climatic Variability Over Past Two Millennia, Likely Solar Driven – Deflate CO2 As Main Driver. New Study: Region’s Climate Aligns With Solar Forcing – Today’s ‘Natural’ Warm Period Will Last ‘Some More Decades’ More solar linkages to climate variations | Watts Up With That? Chinese Sunspots | Watts Up With That? Another New Paper Traces Variations In Temperatures, Precipitation To Variations In Solar Activity.