A Swelling Volume Of Scientific Papers Now Forecasting Global Cooling In The Coming Decades. By Kenneth Richard on 10.
April 2017 During the 20th and early 21st centuries, Earth’s inhabitants have enjoyed an epoch of very high solar activity that is rare or unique in the context of the last several thousand years. The higher solar activity and warmer temperatures have allowed the planet to briefly emerge from the depths of the successive solar minima periods and “Little Ice Age” cooling that lasted from the 1300s to the early 1900s. Unfortunately, solar scientists have increasingly been forecasting a return to a solar minimum period in the coming decades, as well as the concomitant cooler temperatures. In several newly published (2017) papers, scientists have suggested that a substantial deterioration into solar minimum conditions and global cooling may be imminent (see, for example, here and here and here).
The analysis concludes with references to recently published papers that indicate the North Atlantic region has already begun cooling rapidly within the last decade. Russian Scientists Dismiss CO2 Forcing, Predict Decades Of Cooling, Connect Cosmic Ray Flux To Climate. A new scientific paper authored by seven scientists affiliated with the Russian Academy of Sciences was just published in the scientific journal Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics.
The scientists dismiss both “greenhouse gases” and variations in the Sun’s irradiance as significant climate drivers, and instead embrace cloud cover variations — modulated by cosmic ray flux — as a dominant contributor to climate change. A concise summary: As cosmic ray flux increases, more clouds are formed on a global scale. More global-scale cloud cover means more solar radiation is correspondingly blocked from reaching the Earth’s surface (oceans). With an increase in global cloud cover projected for the coming decades (using trend analysis), a global cooling is predicted. Stozhkov et al., 2017 Cosmic Rays, Solar Activity, and Changes in the Earth’s Climate Stozhkov, Y.I., Bazilevskaya, G.A., Makhmutov, V.S., Svirzhevsky, N.S., Svirzhevskaya, A.K., Logachev, V.I., Okhlopkov, V.P.
Page, 2017. North Atlantic Cooling Has Plunged Below 1950s (And 1800s) Levels – And Scientists Project More Cooling. While it has understandably not received much, if any, media attention, the North Atlantic Ocean has been rapidly cooling since the mid-2000s, or for more than 10 years now.
The longer the cooling trend continues — and scientists are projecting more cooling for the coming decades — the more difficult it will be to ignore. The North Atlantic Ocean is, after all, a key trend-setter for hemispheric- and perhaps even global-scale climate changes. In their new paper, for example, Reynolds and colleagues (2017) point out that natural fluctuations in heat transport initiated by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are “directly linked” to precipitation and warming/cooling temperature trends in Africa, Brazil, North America, and Europe. Serykh (2016) points out that the warming enjoyed across Europe and Asia between the 1970s and late 1990s may have been associated with natural decadal-scale oscillations in heat transport.
The Last 165 Years… de Jong and de Steur, 2016. Deep Oceans Are Cooling Amidst A Sea of Modeling Uncertainty: New Research on Ocean Heat Content. Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University and author of Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism Wunsch and Heimbach (2014) humbly admit that their “results differ in detail and in numerical values from other estimates, but the determining whether any are “correct” is probably not possible with the existing data sets.”
They estimate the changing states of the ocean by synthesizing diverse data sets using models developed by the consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, ECCO. The ECCO “state estimates” have eliminated deficiencies of previous models and they claim, “unlike most “data assimilation” products, [ECCO] satisfies the model equations without any artificial sources or sinks or forces. The deep layers contain twice as much heat as the upper 100 meters, and overall exhibit a clear cooling trend for the past 2 decades. Study: Many US weather stations show cooling, maximum temperatures flat. Image: Verity Jones plotted from GHCN data From the we told you so department and The Hockey Schtick: It is all about nighttime influence on minimum temperatures, mostly due to the heat sink effect of urbanization and nearby structures and paving.
New paper finds "surprisingly, there are many US weather stations that show cooling" over the past century. A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds, contrary to popular belief, that US "monthly maximum temperatures are not often greatly changing — perhaps surprisingly, there are many stations that show some cooling [over the past century].
In contrast, the minimum temperatures show significant warming. Overall, the Southeastern United States shows the least warming (even some cooling), and the Western United States, Northern Midwest, and New England have experienced the most warming. " In essence, this paper is saying the weather/climate has become less extreme, with little to no change in maximum temperatures "and even some cooling" of maximum temperatures in some stations, and warming of minimum temperatures.
Thus the temperature range between minimum and maximum temperatures has decreased, a less extreme, more benign climate. Climate shock: 90 percent of the world’s glaciers are GROWING - Principia Scientific International. Published on Written by iceagenow.info A new NASA study, released on Friday, admits that ice is accumulating in Antarctica.
Satellite measurements show an 82-112 gigaton-a-year net ice gain. That’s 82-112 billion tons per year! Nine zeroes! In other words that is 112,000,000,000 tons. The US Has Cooled Since 1920, And The Frequency Of Hot Days Has Plummeted. Gavin Schmidt explained the correct way to measure temperatures.
Use only good stations. Gavin Schmidt: Global weather services gather far more data than we need. To get the structure of the monthly or yearly anomalies over the United States, for example, you’d just need a handful of stations, but there are actually some 1,100 of them. You could throw out 50 percent of the station data or more, and you’d get basically the same answers. NASA Climatologist Gavin Schmidt Discusses the Surface Temperature Record Unfortunately Gavin doesn’t follow this procedure, and neither does Zeke. Satellites Show -1.2° C Temperature Drop Since Early 2016 As Scientists Project Low Solar Activity, Cooling In Coming Decades.
The most recent Super El Niño natural warming event exerted its maximum effect on surface temperature anomalies during the last few months of 2015 and the first few months of 2016.
Since then, surface temperatures over land have dramatically declined by about 1.2° C according to the RSS satellite dataset. Defying IPCC Models, U.S. Blizzard Frequency Has Nearly Quadrupled Since 1960, As U.S. Continues Cooling. What Models Say: ♦ IPCC TAR (2001): “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms“ ♦ Kunkel et al., 2002: “Surface conditions favorable for heavy lake-effect snow decreased in frequency by 50% and 90% for the HadCM2 and CGCM1 [models], respectively, by the late 21st Century.
U-Turn! Scientists At The PIK Potsdam Institute Now Warning Of A “Mini Ice Age”! - Principia Scientific International. Published on Written by P Gosselin The daily Berliner Kurier here writes today that solar physicists at the ultra-warmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) are warning that Europe may be facing “a mini ice age” due to a possible protracted solar minimum. Solar activity has been much lower than predicted earlier. Credit: D. Hathaway/NASA/MSFC. NatGeo: Sun Oddly Quiet – Hints at Next “Little Ice Age”?
Excerpts printed below, see full story here (h/t to David Archibald) Anne Minard for National Geographic News May 4, 2009 A prolonged lull in solar activity has astrophysicists glued to their telescopes waiting to see what the sun will do next—and how Earth’s climate might respond. Sunspot Enigma: Will Inactive Sun Cause Global Cooling? Global warming has been on “pause” for 15 years but will speed up again and is still a real threat, Met Office scientists have warned. Surface temperatures around the world have not increased on average since the late 1990s, causing some sceptics to suggest that climate change is not happening as quickly as experts predict. But in a set of three new reports, the Met Office claims that global warming has been disguised in recent years by the oceans, which have absorbed greater amounts of heat and prevented us from noticing the difference at surface level.
This process, caused by the natural cycle of the oceans, could delay earlier predictions of global warming by five to ten years but will not last forever, researchers explained. Other factors including a number of volcanic eruptions since 2000 and changes in the Sun’s activity, could also have masked the effect of greenhouse gases by providing a slight cooling effect, they said. Full story. Scientists Find Climate’s ‘Cause Of Causes’…Highest Solar Activity In 4000 Years Just Ended…Cooling Begins In 2025. By Kenneth Richard on 12. January 2017 “It is generally accepted that the climate warms during periods of strong solar activity (e.g., the Medieval Warm Period) and cools during periods of low solar activity (e.g., the Little Ice Age).” — Lyu et al., 2016 Graph Source: WoodForTrees.org Scientists are increasingly tuning out the claims that the Earth’s temperatures are predominantly shaped by anthropogenic CO2 emissions, or that future climate is destined to be alarmingly warm primarily due to the rise in trace atmospheric gases.
Instead, solar scientists are continuing to advance our understanding of solar activity and its effect on the Earth system, and their results are progressively suggestive of robust correlations between solar variability and climate changes. For example, in 2016 alone, there were at least 132 peer-reviewed scientific papers documenting a significant solar influence on climate. Prof Bob Carter warns of unpreparedness for Global Cooling. Eric Worrall writes: Professor Bob Carter, writing in today’s edition of The Australian, a major Aussie daily newspaper, warns that the world is unprepared for imminent global cooling, because of the obsession of policy makers with global warming.
According to Bob Carter; Heading for ice age“GRAHAM Lloyd has reported on the Bureau of Meteorology’s capitulation to scientific criticism that it should publish an accounting of the corrections it makes to temperature records (“Bureau warms to transparency over adjusted records”, 12/9). Professor Abdussamatov, cited by Professor Carter in his letter, is head of the Space Research section of the Russian Academy of Science. In 2006, Professor Abdussamatov issued a press release, warning that the world should prepare for imminent global cooling.
Pravda: 'ice age warning' as minus 80 degrees grips Russia - Principia Scientific International. Are Scientists Preparing for a FlipFlop Back to Global Cooling Predictions? To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here - Principia Scientific International. John Casey Predicts 2016 Mini Ice Age Begins & NASA Hides TSI Data - Principia Scientific International. Top Russian Scientist: ‘fear a deep temperature drop — not global warming’ - Principia Scientific International. When is the next Ice Age due? - Principia Scientific International. Scientists Say Global Cooling "Now Beginning" - Principia Scientific International. Published on. Q&A: Western professor doubts global warming - The Western Front: News. Don Easterbrook is a professor emeritus of geology at Western. He holds a bachelor’s degree, master’s degree and PhD in geology. N N o N: Russia's Pulkovo Observatory: "we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years"
Experts Divided On Implications Of Brutal Cold Spell - Redorbit. January 12, 2010. UW-Milwaukee Professor Predicts 50 Years of Global Cooling. [Milwaukee, Wisc...] A Cool Question, Answered? THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds worldwide glacier retreat has decelerated since 1950. Party’s Over, Baby: The Twilight of Abundance Reviewed – William M. Briggs. Croat scientist - Ice age could start in five years.
Winter may be coldest in 1000 years. T, says astrophysicist. Greenland Temperatures Falling. On the verge of a mini ice age. Eminent geophysicist says world on verge of 'mini ice age' WeatherBell.com's Joe Bastardi Differs With Mainstream Media: Beware of a Mini Ice Age. BBC Blogs - Weather - Real risk of a Maunder minimum 'Little Ice Age' says leading scientist. Climatesense-norpag: Commonsense Climate Science and Forecasting after AR5 and the Coming Cooling. N N o N: Russian Academy of Sciences: Global warming over in Central Asia.
The New "Consensus" Predicts an Ice Age. Climate Scientist Who Got It Right Predicts 20 More Years of Global Cooling. THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper predicts temperature decrease by 2020 of up to 1C due to low solar activity. New paper by Russian solar physicist by Habibullo Abdussamatov predicts another Little Ice Age within the next 30 years. Earth may enter a Little Ice Age within a decade. Mini ice-age which could freeze the Tyne is on the way, says Newcastle academic. Global cooling as Ireland records coldest June and July in 50 years. Mont Blanc Glacier doubles. Better Get your Woollies! - Ice Age Now. The Coeur d'Alene Press - Randy Mann, German scientists predict a century of global cooling. Major Danish Daily Warns: “Globe May Be On Path To Little Ice Age…Much Colder Winters…Dramatic Consequences”! New Research Paper Predicts 15 Years Of Cooling: 2012–2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent weakening of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
New paper predicts solar activity will decline over 21st century to average Holocene levels – Published in Climate of the Past. Lawrence Solomon: Proof that a new ice age has already started is stronger than ever, and we couldn’t be less prepared. German Geologist: IPCC Models A Failure, “Have No Chance Of Success”…Sees Possible 0.2°C Of Cooling By 2020.