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Arctic Climate--Long-term Reconstructions

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Less Ice In Arctic Ocean 6000-7000 Years Ago. Less Ice In Arctic Ocean 6000-7000 Years Ago -- ScienceDaily. Historic Variations in Arctic Sea Ice – Part Two. Guest essay by Tony brown Foreword Note; Last year an edited version of this article appeared at Climate Etc. This new version contains numerous additional references, graphics, quotes, more historic detail and updates.

‘Historic variations in Arctic Ice’ is a series of articles that attempts to determine the arctic warming events through the Holocene which commenced some 11000 years ago. (See Graphic ‘after Dansgaard et al’ below. After Dansgaard et al. This paper- Part 2–examines the period of warming 1920-1940 in detail with a decade long overlap. Part 3 will examine the evidence for other episodes of warming through the Holocene. We are primarily concerned with identifying that these warming episodes occurred, not what caused them, Readers are encouraged to follow the links/references to understand the context of the brief extracts used. Summary of Results It states; And; This was followed by; John E. Giant Ancient Camel Roamed the Arctic. A cold-weather camel that lived 3.5 million years ago has been discovered in Canada’s High Arctic. The world was a very different place 3.5 million years ago. A land bridge connected Alaska and Russia. Our ancestors, the australopithecines, were first appearing in Africa.

And giant camels roamed the Arctic, looking a whole lot like their desert-based descendants do today. That’s right—the shaggy animals that embody arid, sandy settings once thrived in decidedly chillier climes. According to a study published today in Nature Communications, researchers have evidence that camels lived all the way up in Canada’s northernmost territory, now home to polar bears, grey wolves and caribou.

Far from feeling out of place, camels were ideally suited for the region’s harsh winters—and incredibly, the same features that helped them withstand the cold would later help their successors brave the desert. Before the latest find, experts only knew of extinct camels as far north as Canada’s Yukon. New Science: Arctic AND Antarctic Sea Ice More Extensive Today Than Nearly All Of The Last 10,000 Years. By Kenneth Richard on 18. October 2018 It is often claimed that modern day sea ice changes are “unprecedented”, alarming, and well outside the range of natural variability. Yet scientists are increasingly finding that biomarker proxies used to reconstruct both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice conditions since the Early Holocene reveal that today’s sea ice changes are not only not unusual, there is more extensive Arctic and Antarctic sea ice during recent decades than there has been for nearly all of the last 10,000 years.

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent In the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica, the sea surface temperatures have been cooling since 1979. Image Source: Jones et al., 2016 Image Source: Fan et al., 2014 Image Source: Purich et al., 2018 The decline in Southern Ocean temperatures has coincided with an increase in Antarctic sea extent since 1979. Image Source: Comiso et al., 2017 Antarctica warming rapidly, 1950s-1980s Declining Antarctic sea ice concentrations, 1950s-1980s. A Geological Perspective on Arctic Sea Ice Extent (AKA PIP25: “Miracle on Ice”) Guest review article by David Middleton We’re often bombarded with headlines line this: Arctic sea ice continues its downward spiral At 4.6 million square kilometres in coverage, this year’s sea ice minimum is the sixth lowest on record. The problem with headlines like this is the fact that the “record” only dates back to 1979.

How meaningful could “the sixth lowest on record” be, when the record isn’t even forty years long? NSIDC does feature an estimate of Arctic sea ice extent that goes back to 1953 based on the “Hadley data set”… Arctic sea ice before satellites, NSIDC Based on this analysis, Arctic sea ice extent was anomalously high from 1953 to 1978 and has shrunk to anomalously low since 1979. The Arctic was probably ice-free during summer for most of the Holocene up until about 1,000 years ago. Steve Mosher noted in the comments that, “The Chukchi Sea IS NOT THE ARCTIC !!!! This is very true… However, sediment cores are pretty-well limited to where they have been drilled. References. New Arctic Study Finds Spring Sea Ice Melted 2 Months Earlier Than Today During Roman, Medieval Times. By Kenneth Richard on 16.

August 2018 Scientists have determined that today’s Arctic sea ice concentrations are still much higher than they have been for most of the last several thousand years, undermining claims that modern era Arctic sea ice changes are remarkable, unusual, or unprecedented. Source: Kolling et al., 2018 In the graphical illustration of Late Holocene West Greenland sea ice changes shown above, Kolling and colleagues (2018) indicate that both present-day and Little Ice Age era (~1300s to 1800s AD) sea ice does not melt until May. (Fig. 6a). During most of the last 2,200 years — especially during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Roman Warm Period (RWP) — spring sea ice melted in March, two months earlier than today (Fig. 6b). The authors attribute the lower-than-today sea ice concentrations and warmer temperatures during the MWP and RWP to a “self-amplifiying system” involving variations in solar activity and the AMO.

New peer reviewed paper says "there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean" in the early Holocene, about 10-11,000 years ago. New Science Affirms Arctic Region Was 6°C Warmer Than Now 9000 Years Ago, When CO2 Levels Were ‘Safe’ Unearthed new evidence (Mangerud and Svendsen, 2018) reveals that during the Early Holocene, when CO2 concentrations hovered around 260 ppm, “warmth-demanding species” were living in locations 1,000 km farther north of where they exist today in Arctic Svalbard, indicating that summer temperatures must have been about “6°C warmer than at present”.

Proxy evidence from two other new papers suggests Svalbard’s Hinlopen Strait may have reached about 5 – 9°C warmer than 1955-2012 during the Early Holocene (Bartels et al., 2018), and Greenland may have been “4.0 to 7.0 °C warmer than modern [1952-2014]” between 10,000 and 8,000 years ago according to evidence found in rock formations at the bottom of ancient lakes (McFarlin et al., 2018). In these 3 new papers, none of the scientists connect the “pronounced” and “exceptional” Early Holocene warmth to CO2 concentrations.

Mangerud and Svendsen, 2018 The Holocene Thermal Maximum around Svalbard, Arctic Bartels et al., 2018 McFarlin et al., 2018. Study: Less Svalbard polar bear habitat during the early Holocene than now. Guest essay by Dr. Susan Crockford of Polar Bear Science Svalbard in the western Barents Sea has recently had less sea ice extent than it had in the 1980s, especially in the west and north, but this is not unprecedented. New evidence from clams and mussels with temperature-sensitive habitat requirements confirm that warmer temperatures and less sea ice than today existed during the early Holocene period about 10.2–9.2 thousand years ago and between 8.2 and 6.0 thousand years ago (based on radio carbon dates) around Svalbard.

Barents Sea polar bears almost certainly survived those previous low-ice periods, as they are doing today, by staying close to the Franz Josef Land Archipelago in the eastern half of the region where sea ice is more persistent. As this sea ice chart for 18 April 2018 shows, ice this month has been virtually absent from the west and north coasts of the Svalbard Archipelago, while Franz Josef Land to the east is surrounded by highly concentrated pack and land-fast ice. a. Arctic Ocean may have been covered by an ice shelf nearly double the size of Greenland’s ice sheet. An ice shelf over a kilometre thick once formed over the Arctic Ocean, a new study by researchers from the University of Sheffield has revealed. The study is the first of its kind and strongly supports the theory that a floating ice shelf might have formed in the Arctic Ocean during some of the Earth’s Ice Ages. An ice shelf over a kilometre thick once formed over the Arctic Ocean, a new study by researchers from the University of Sheffield has revealed.

The research, led by Dr Ed Gasson, from the University of Sheffield’s Ice and Climate research group published today (17 April 2017) in Nature Communications, used a numerical ice sheet/shelf computer model to show that an ice shelf in the Arctic Basin could only have become a kilometre thick if it covered the entire basin. This model also provided an estimate of the ice shelf’s size – up to 1.7 times the size of Greenland’s current ice sheet. The ice shelf most likely formed during the penultimate glacial period around 140,000 years ago.

Inconvenient new study: Canadian Arctic had significantly warmer summers a few thousand years ago | Watts Up With That? From the melting sea ice and dead polar bears department comes this new study: Multiproxy paleoecological evidence of Holocene climatic changes on the Boothia Peninsula, Canadian Arctic Marie-Claude Fortin, Konrad Gajewski, Ottawa-Carleton Institute of Biology, Laboratory for Paleoclimatology and Climatology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada Received 20 September 2015, Available online 22 March 2016 doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2016.02.003 Abstract A study of chironomid remains in the sediments of Lake JR01 on the Boothia Peninsula in the central Canadian Arctic provides a high-resolution record of mean July air temperatures for the last 6.9 ka. Mean July air temperatures inferred from the fossil chironomid assemblages based on the WAPLS 2-component model and using the modern calibration dataset of Fortin et al. (2015) show a long-term cooling over the record (Fig. 7).

Like this: Like Loading... Arctic Was An Open Sea In The Year 1122 | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. In the year 1122, people from several northern European countries travelled through open seas in the Arctic. Papers Past | VARIATIONS IN CLIMATE. (Press, 1887-11-08) By contrast, the 1970’s were much colder with Iceland frozen in, global temperatures plummeting and scientists forecasting a new ice age.

TIME Magazine Archive Article — Another Ice Age? — Jun. 24, 1974 The 1990 IPCC report showed this warmth in the 12th century, and recognized that temperatures then were much warmer than they are now. 1990 IPCC report chapter 7 Reality didn’t suit the needs of government or climate scientists who need funding, so the 2001 IPCC report contained Michael Mann’s nonsensical hockey stick graph which shows ice melting when it is cold, and ice freezing when it is warm. ‎www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/research/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/Millennium/mbh99.pdf The basis of modern climate science is complete garbage and fake news.

Long Term Arctic Temperature Trends | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. By Paul Homewood As I pointed out in my post, Arctic Sea Ice Update, the other day, we currently have low sea ice extent and unusually high temperature anomalies in the Arctic. Although much of this is just weather, there is an underlying pattern of warming related to pulses of unusually warm water, which have been entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic for the last decade or more. But just how unusual are conditions there? Are they as unprecedented as Neven suggested in the comments? The area we are talking about spans from East Greenland across to Siberia. So what do the temperature trends tell us about the climate in that part of the world. Akureyri in Iceland is regarded as being the Icelandic site most representative of climate in the Greenland Sea, as it is on the north coast.

I prepared this graph of annual mean temperatures a few months ago. The warmest year recently was 2014, with a mean of 5.3C. Like this: Alarmists Right On Schedule …. As predicted, climate experts have jumped into their next phase of nonsensical climate propaganda. There’s likely never been this little sea ice on the planet since human civilization began.Eric Holthaus Never mind the large increase in Arctic sea ice thickness and 10% increase in volume over the past decade. Never mind that the Arctic was ice-free in the past “Examination of several proxy records (e.g., sediment cores) of sea ice indicate ice-free or near ice-free summer conditions for at least some time during the period of 15,000 to 5,000 years ago”– Walt Meier NSIDC Climate alarmists are as predictable as clockwork.

New Paper Indicates There Is More Arctic Sea Ice Now Than For Nearly All Of The Last 10,000 Years. By Kenneth Richard on 2. March 2017 Solar Forcing Of Modern, Historic Arctic Sea Ice Only Slightly Less Sea Ice Now Than Little Ice Age In a new paper (Stein et al., 2017), scientists find that Arctic sea ice retreat and advance is modulated by variations in solar activity. In addition, the sea ice cover during the last century has only slightly retreated from the extent reached during coldest centuries of the Little Ice Age (1600s to 1800s AD), which had the highest sea ice cover of the last 10,000 years and flirted with excursions into year-round sea ice.

The Medieval Warm Period sea ice record (~900 to 1200 AD) had the lowest coverage since the Roman era ~2,000 years ago. Of note, the paper makes no reference to carbon dioxide or anthropogenic forcing as factors modulating Arctic sea ice. Stein et al., 2017 The causes that are controlling the decrease in sea ice are still under discussion. Lessen and Thejll, 2005. 2 More New Papers Affirm There Is More Arctic Ice Coverage Today Than During The 1400s.

Earlier this year, Stein et al., 2017 published a reconstruction of Arctic sea ice variations throughout the Holocene that appeared to establish that there is more Arctic sea ice now than for nearly all of the last 10,000 years. The study region, the Chukchi Sea, was deemed representative of most of the Arctic, as the authors asserted that “the increase in sea ice extent during the late Holocene seems to be a circum-Arctic phenomenon as PIP25-based sea ice records from the Fram Strait, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea display a generally quite similar evolution, all coinciding with the decrease in solar radiation.” In 2014, Dr. Qinghua Ding and colleagues published a consequential paper in the journal Nature contending that much of the warming trend in the Arctic since 1979 can be traced to “unforced natural variability” rather than anthropogenic forcing.

Then, a few months ago, Dr. 1. 2. Moffa-Sánchez and Hall, 2017 (supplemental) Science debunks the “Arctic sea ice extent at its lowest for at least 1500 years” meme. These headlines have been recently making the rounds, such as this article at vox.com which describes “sudden scary ice melt in the Arctic, in three charts One of the charts is below, along with some peer reviewed science that says otherwise. By Paul Homewood h/t Andyg55 In December, NOAA released its latest annual Arctic Report Card, which analyzes the state of the frozen ocean at the top of our world. Overall, it’s not good. “The Arctic is going through the most unprecedented transition in human history,” Jeremy Mathis, director of NOAA’s Arctic research program, said at a press conference. “This year’s observations confirm that the Arctic shows no signs of returning to the reliably frozen state it was in just a decade ago.”

The report, which you can read in full here, compiles trends that scientists have been seeing for years. That huge drop-off at the end? Re-posted from No Tricks Zone: In 2014, Dr. Then, a few months ago, Dr. 1. 2. Read the full post here. Like this: Like Loading... “Arctic sea ice extent at its lowest for at least 1500 years”–Debunked By Three Scientific Papers. Climate variability in the subarctic area for the last 2 millennia. New paleo reconstruction shows warmer periods in Alaska over the past 3000 years | Watts Up With That?