What Not to Expect From a Futurist: Trend Watch & Forecasts. Global Problem Solving Without the Globaloney. How to See into the Future. How Different Cultures Understand Time. The Acceleration of Acceleration: How The Future Is Arriving Far Faster Than Expected. The Acceleration of Acceleration: How The Future Is Arriving Far Faster Than Expected This article co-written with Ken Goffman.
Paradigm Shifts. Driving Forces and Trends. Futures Glossary. Your tech predictions are wrong, but they aren't pointless. “Radio has no future.
Clustering illusion. Up to 10,000 points randomly distributed inside a square with apparent "clumps" or clusters The clustering illusion is the tendency to erroneously consider the inevitable "streaks" or "clusters" arising in small samples from random distributions to be statistically significant.
The illusion is caused by a human tendency to underpredict the amount of variability likely to appear in a small sample of random or semi-random data. Examples Gilovich, an early author on the subject, argued that the effect occurs for different types of random dispersions, including two-dimensional data such as clusters in the locations of impact of World War II V-1 flying bombs on maps of London; or seeing patterns in stock market price fluctuations over time. Although Londoners developed specific theories about the pattern of impacts within London, a statistical analysis by R.
D. Similar biases Commonplace 2023: who said you can't do foresight with a startup? Someone asked me a couple of months ago why startups don’t do foresight or futures work.
My response was that new companies are often the product of a particular vision of the future. They don’t need to imagine future scenarios or trends; they are forging the future already. Since then I have changed my mind. Scenario planning and other strategic foresight tools are traditionally the preserve of governments and large corporates. Futures Dialogue. The impact of strategic foresight is shaped by both the interior development of the participants and their capacities to add depth to their levels of conversation.
The following picture illustrates a ‘dialogue line of development’ that is motivated by two models of dialogue and conversation from William Isaacs. The first shows a line of development (with both light and shadow sides) that reflects Isaacs’ bifurcation model of dialogue (see Isaacs, 1993). The seconds is the ‘four player model’ that captures the four fields of conversation (see Isaacs, 1999). Forecasting - levels, examples, manager, definition, model, type, company.
Photo by: tiero Forecasting involves the generation of a number, set of numbers, or scenario that corresponds to a future occurrence.
It is absolutely essential to short-range and long-range planning. Futures Knowlab. Beyond the Bell Curve, a New Universal Law. Imagine an archipelago where each island hosts a single tortoise species and all the islands are connected — say by rafts of flotsam.
As the tortoises interact by dipping into one another’s food supplies, their populations fluctuate. In 1972, the biologist Robert May devised a simple mathematical model that worked much like the archipelago. He wanted to figure out whether a complex ecosystem can ever be stable or whether interactions between species inevitably lead some to wipe out others.
The foresight gap: What too many organizations get wrong. Businesses aim close.
Too often, a business’s view stays on its current realities and where the business is excelling or struggling. The mindset is near-term and management aligns its tools to support that near-term view. This creates a gulf between the challenges and opportunities of the future and the demands of the status quo. It is a foresight gap. The problem is endemic. Ideas and behavior around risk create the foresight gap.
Introducing Chaos Engineering. Chaos Monkey was launched in 2010 with our move to Amazon Web Services, and thus the Netflix Simian Army was born.
Our ecosystem has evolved as we’ve introduced thousands of devices, many new countries, a Netflix optimized CDN often referred to as OpenConnect, a growing catalog of Netflix Originals, and new and exciting UI advancements. Not only has complexity grown, but our infrastructure itself has grown to support our rapidly growing customer base.
As growth and evolution continues, we will experience and find new failure modes. Our philosophy remains unchanged around injecting failure into production to ensure our systems are fault-tolerant. We are constantly testing our ability to survive “once in a blue moon” failures. Welcome to Dataland — re:form. She’s referring to the colorful wristbands now provided to Walt Disney World Resort guests.
Rubberized, waterproof, and emblazoned with Mickey’s iconic silhouette, the MagicBand bracelets are a part of a new digital parks strategy Disney dubs MyMagic+. Besides wearables, MyMagic+ involves upgrades to in-park terminals for purchases and FastPass line-skipping services, a new vacation management mobile app, and improved back-office crowd management systems for traffic flow logistics. Previously, park visitors received a payment card-sized pass with a magnetic stripe and an embedded radio frequency identification (RFID) proximity sensor. DILL Main. What Some Crazy Smart Futurists at Shell Oil Predicted. Shell Oil has some crazy smart futurists on staff. They scan the periphery for anomalies that will overtake the landscape of tomorrow. Well, in 2008, they found that something really big was going to happen. Here’s what they said: There are 3 Hard Truths:1) A huge increase in global energy use is coming.2) There won’t be enough energy to keep up.3) Climate change is real, and getting worse.
Wait a minute. The Futurist Manifesto. 10 Futurist Phrases And Terms That Are Complete Bullshit. Whose Vision of the Future is This? Introducing Four Types of Values for the Future. 20 Crucial Terms Every 21st Century Futurist Should Know. My “Game Changing” Talk at LOGIN2013. After my LIFT 13 talk, I gave another fun talk about the future,hope and fear, and “game changing events” at LOGIN 2013 (in Vilnius, Lithuania). Summary The organisers asked me to speak about “Game Changers in Politics”, as gaming changing was the theme of the event. I borrowed a trick from Jamais Cascio and opened the talk with the story of amazing changes in society and government, all of which seemed totally outrageous and impossible. But all of which actually happened. The future is a foreign country; they do things differently there. The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. –L.P.
Dominant predators theory. Adaptive Foresight. Integral futures. Critical futures. Ethnic Futurism.