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Prediction, future, understanding

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Doomsday prepping for less crazy folk. 1.

Doomsday prepping for less crazy folk

Introduction [link] How PredictIt Became the Biggest Winner in the 2020 Presidential Election. Forecasting: Principles and Practice. This book uses R and is designed to be used with R.

Forecasting: Principles and Practice

R is free, available on almost every operating system, and there are thousands of add-on packages to do almost anything you could ever want to do. They See You When You’re Shopping. For months you’ve been casing a Gucci shoulder bag online, adding it to your virtual cart, only to close the tab before buying it.

They See You When You’re Shopping

One weekend, lounging in your pajamas, you decide to go for it, and back you go to the Gucci website. In an office building on the waterfront in Jersey City, N.J., a yellow cartoon figure roughly the shape of a bowling pin — that’s you! — appears on a customer service agent’s computer screen. The Greatest Money-Making Machine of All Time. To put this performance in perspective, $1 invested in the Medallion Fund from 1988-2018 would have grown to over $20,000 (net of fees) while $1 invested in the S&P 500 would have only grown to $20 over the same time period.

The Greatest Money-Making Machine of All Time

Even a $1 investment in Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway would have only grown to $100 during this time. This means that the Medallion Fund outperformed one of the best asset classes of the last few decades by 1,000x and one of the best investors of all time by 200x! And while hedge funds are famously known for charging 2 and 20 (2% annual management fee and a 20% performance fee), Simons and his team generated arguably the greatest track record in investment history while charging 5 and 44. This fee structure may not sound much higher than 2 and 20, but it is worlds away. RISMAT. The 12 Global Economic Indicators to Watch. Forecasting the Next Recession: The Yield Curve Doesn’t Lie. List of 16 Major Leading & Lagging Economic Indicators. Most economists talk about where the economy is headed – it’s what they do.

List of 16 Major Leading & Lagging Economic Indicators

But in case you haven’t noticed, many of their predictions are wrong. For example, Ben Bernanke (head of the Federal Reserve) made a prediction in 2007 that the United States was not headed into a recession. He further claimed that the stock and housing markets would be as strong as ever. STELLA Manual: STELLA Manual. LOOM (ontology) Loom is a knowledge representation language developed by researchers in the artificial intelligence research group at the University of Southern California's Information Sciences Institute.

LOOM (ontology)

The leader of the Loom project and primary architect for Loom was Robert MacGregor. The research was primarily sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). The Loom project's goal is the development and fielding of advanced tools for knowledge representation and reasoning in artificial intelligence. Specifically to enable code to be generated from provably valid domain models.

KM The Knowledege Machine Users Manual. Why Google Needed a Graph Serving System - Dgraph Blog. How can crowd behaviour modelling be used to prevent and respond to violence and antisocial behaviour at Qatar 2022? Advice for Pension Funds and Endowments. How Public Pensions Can Start Healing ThemselvesA series of questions and answers can help.Bloomberg, May 21, 2018 Our discussion last week about representatives of the League of California Cities urging the CalPERS, the state’s huge pension fund for public employees, to juice up investment returns generated a lot of interesting feedback.

Advice for Pension Funds and Endowments

State and Local Government Pensions. Cutting ‘Old Heads’ at IBM. For nearly a half century, IBM came as close as any company to bearing the torch for the American Dream.

Cutting ‘Old Heads’ at IBM

As the world’s dominant technology firm, payrolls at International Business Machines Corp. swelled to nearly a quarter-million U.S. white-collar workers in the 1980s. Its profits helped underwrite a broad agenda of racial equality, equal pay for women and an unbeatable offer of great wages and something close to lifetime employment, all in return for unswerving loyalty. But when high tech suddenly started shifting and companies went global, IBM faced the changing landscape with a distinction most of its fiercest competitors didn’t have: a large number of experienced and aging U.S. employees. Killing drug dealers won’t stop the opioid epidemic. The wreckage speaks: Evidence, experience point investigators toward conclusion in fatal Olney crash.

Detective Cpl.

The wreckage speaks: Evidence, experience point investigators toward conclusion in fatal Olney crash

David Cohen at the site of a fatal crash in Montgomery County. (Fredrick Kunkle/The Washington Post) This is the final installment in “The Wreckage Speaks,” a three-part series on Tripping examining how officers with the Montgomery County Police Department’s Collision Reconstruction Unit investigate — and, in essence, re-create — major traffic accidents. (Part One: A crash reconstruction team tells stories that victims can’t) (Part Two: How police use impound lot to recreate a fatal crash) The driver took his eyes off the road for only the amount of time needed to adjust the air conditioning in his car.

The science of fake news. The rise of fake news highlights the erosion of long-standing institutional bulwarks against misinformation in the internet age.

The science of fake news

Concern over the problem is global. However, much remains unknown regarding the vulnerabilities of individuals, institutions, and society to manipulations by malicious actors. A new system of safeguards is needed. Below, we discuss extant social and computer science research regarding belief in fake news and the mechanisms by which it spreads. Policing the Stock Market with Machine Learning. Keys to the White House – PollyVote. The Keys to the White House, developed by Allan Lichtman, is a system for predicting the popular-vote result of American presidential elections, based upon the theory of pragmatic voting.

America’s electorate, according to this theory, chooses a president, not according to events of the campaign, but according to how well the party in control of the White House has governed the country. If the voters are content with the party in power, it gains four more years in the White House; if not, the challenging party prevails. Thus, the choice of a president does not turn on debates, advertising, speeches, endorsements, rallies, platforms, promises, or campaign tactics. The Strategy of Technology. Global Terrorism Database. While the GTD inclusion criteria offer a comprehensive definition of terrorism, we encourage users to take advantage of the GTD's flexibility to restrict the data according to their definitional preferences.

This includes filtering search results based on whether the coder noted some uncertainty whether an incident meets the criteria for inclusion ("Doubt Terrorism Proper," systematically available for post-1997 cases only). Also, users can filter search results based on which of the following three criteria are met (available for all cases): Criterion 1: The act must be aimed at attaining a political, economic, religious, or social goal.

Global Terrorism Database. Uncertain About Hurricanes presented at NICAR17. Design of Agent-based Models: Developing Computer Simulations for a Better ... - Tomáš Šalamon - Google Books. UN Data Forum: Data Journalism (live blog) – Data Therapy. Introduction to Scenario Planning. Kick back and watch Quartz' artificial intelligence learn to play Atari games in real-time — Quartz. What does Donald Trump want for America? His supporters don’t know. His party doesn’t know. Even he doesn’t know. If there is a political vision underlying Trumpism, however, the person to ask is not Trump. STEAMER: An Interactive Inspectable Simulation-Based Training System 434 434 1 PB. Age and Sex Composition in the United States: 2010 Census Brief c2010br-03. How Two Trailblazing Psychologists Turned the World of Decision Science Upside Down.

Back in 2003, I published a book called Moneyball, about the Oakland Athletics’ quest to find new and better ways to value baseball players and evaluate baseball strategies. The team had less money to spend on players than other teams did, and so its management, out of necessity, set about rethinking the game. Book: Weapons Of Math Destruction. PNAS 2013 Turchin 16384 9.

There’s a reason I use systematic reviews and meta-analyses. I’m writing this piece mostly to save myself time on Twitter and email. Towards Teaching Markets as Complex Systems: A Web Based Simulation Assignment Implemented in NetLogo. What’s Up With That: Why You Always Seem to Choose the Slowest Line. You run into the grocery store to quickly pick up one ingredient. A Campaign Strategy for Your Career. Executive Summary. SWIRL: Simulating Warfare in the ROSS Language N1885. TWIRL: Tactical Warfare in the ROSS Language.