Stephen's Guide to the Logical Fallacies - by Stephen Downes
Cognitive biases are tendencies to think in certain ways. Cognitive biases can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgment, and are often studied in psychology and behavioral economics. There are also controversies as to whether some of these biases count as truly irrational or whether they result in useful attitudes or behavior. For example, when getting to know others, people tend to ask leading questions which seem biased towards confirming their assumptions about the person. This kind of confirmation bias has been argued to be an example of social skill: a way to establish a connection with the other person.
Each December, The Economist forecasts the coming year in a special issue called The World in Whatever-The-Next-Year-Is. It’s avidly read around the world. But then, like most forecasts, it’s forgotten. The editors may regret that short shelf-life some years, but surely not this one. Even now, only halfway through the year, The World in 2011 bears little resemblance to the world in 2011. Of the political turmoil in the Middle East—the revolutionary movements in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria—we find no hint in The Economist’s forecast. Overcoming Our Aversion to Acknowledging Our Ignorance |
Caspar Hare is interested in your choices. Not the ones you’ve already made, but the ones you will make, and how you’ll go about making them. The more important, the better. By way of example, suppose you’re deciding between two careers: journalism and physics. How we (should) decide
cognitive bias - Google Search
The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy The Misconception: You take randomness into account when determining cause and effect. The Truth: You tend to ignore random chance when the results seem meaningful or when you want a random event to have a meaningful cause. Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy were both presidents of the United States, elected 100 years apart. Both were shot and killed by assassins who were known by three names with 15 letters, John Wilkes Booth and Lee Harvey Oswald, and neither killer would make it to trial.
The Stone is a forum for contemporary philosophers and other thinkers on issues both timely and timeless. Is free will an illusion? Some leading scientists think so. Is Neuroscience the Death of Free Will?
"What is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?"- James MadisonThe Federalist Papers (number 51) Questions about decisions answered by researchers. To submit your question, click here. Decoding The Science Of Decision Making | Harvard Decision Science Laboratory
Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence
A CONVERSATION WITH Daniel Kahneman - On Profit, Loss and the Mysteries of the Mind - Interview ''Kahnemanandtversky.'' Everybody said it that way. As if the Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky were a single person, and their work, which challenged long-held views of how people formed judgments and made choices, was the product of a single mind. Last month, Dr. Kahneman, a professor at Princeton, was awarded the Nobel in economics science, sharing the prize with Vernon L. Smith of George Mason University.
Tools for Thinking
The Planning Fallacy
Harvard Decision Science Laboratory
Decisions, Decisions... | Harvard Decision Science Laboratory "What is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?"- James MadisonThe Federalist Papers (number 51) Questions about decisions answered by researchers. To submit your question, click here. Q:Dear Decision Scientist, At my company we're about to hire a key member of our leadership team.
Ewwwwwwwww! | Harvard Decision Science Laboratory "What is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?"- James MadisonThe Federalist Papers (number 51) Questions about decisions answered by researchers. To submit your question, click here.