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Making Decisions

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Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters. Creating Simple Rules for Complex Decisions. Executive Summary Machines can now beat humans at complex tasks that seem tailored to the strengths of the human mind, including poker, the game of Go, and visual recognition.

Creating Simple Rules for Complex Decisions

Yet for many high-stakes decisions that are natural candidates for automated reasoning—like those made by doctors diagnosing patients and judges setting bail—experts often favor experience and intuition over data and statistics. A simple, three-step procedure can help managers create rubrics that improve yes-or-no decisions. These rubrics can help judges decide whom to detain, tax auditors whom to scrutinize, and hiring managers whom to interview. Outsmart Your Own Biases. Suppose you’re evaluating a job candidate to lead a new office in a different country.

Outsmart Your Own Biases

On paper this is by far the most qualified person you’ve seen. Her responses to your interview questions are flawless. She has impeccable social skills. Still, something doesn’t feel right. Implementation Intentions Facilitate Action Control. What Matters More in Decisions: Analysis or Process? Think of the last major decision your company made.

What Matters More in Decisions: Analysis or Process?

Maybe it was an acquisition, a large purchase, or perhaps it was whether to launch a new product. Speed as a Habit. This article is by Dave Girouard, CEO of personal finance startup Upstart, and former President of Google Enterprise Apps.

Speed as a Habit

He’s well known for building Google’s enterprise apps division into a $1B+ global business. Daniel Kahneman’s Strategy for How Your Firm Can Think Smarter. Nobel economics laureate and psychologist Daniel Kahneman — considered the father of behavioral economics – retired from his teaching position at Princeton a few years ago to co-found a consulting firm in New York.

Daniel Kahneman’s Strategy for How Your Firm Can Think Smarter

Slow Deciders Make Better Strategists. There are many ways to split people into two groups.

Slow Deciders Make Better Strategists

Young and old. Rich and poor. Us and them. Re:Work - Guide: Adopt an analytics mindset. Many years back, Google experimented with 42 different shades of blue on the Google Toolbar to find which color would optimize click-through rates.

re:Work - Guide: Adopt an analytics mindset

Launching experiments and learning from the behavior of users to improve products is ingrained in Google's product development and business practices. Indeed, many organizations use this type of experimentation in their product development, customer engagement and business practices. The people analytics mindset is about instilling this type of data-driven approach in people issues. “All people decisions should be informed by data and analytics.” ~Google People Analytics motto. This Is How To Make Good Decisions: 4 Secrets Backed By Research. Life would be a lot easier if we just knew how to make good decisions.

This Is How To Make Good Decisions: 4 Secrets Backed By Research

Research shows we all make a lot of bad ones. With careers: More than half of teachers quit their jobs within four years. In fact, one study in Philadelphia schools found that a teacher was almost two times more likely to drop out than a student. Why We Are Better At Making Decisions For Other People. If you’ve ever started a sentence with, "If I were you . . .

Why We Are Better At Making Decisions For Other People

" or found yourself scratching your head at a colleague’s agony over a decision when the answer is crystal-clear, there’s a scientific reason behind it. Our own decision-making abilities can become depleted over the course of the day causing indecision or poor choices, but choosing on behalf of someone else is an enjoyable task that doesn’t suffer the same pitfalls, according to a study published in Social Psychology and Personality Science. The problem is "decision fatigue," a psychological phenomenon that takes a toll on the quality of your choices after a long day of decision making, says Evan Polman, assistant professor of marketing at the Wisconsin School of Business, and coauthor of the study. But decision fatigue goes away when you’re making the decision for someone else. Finding the Right Adviser Getting the best advice, however, will rely on the personality of your adviser. The Benefits.

The 30 Percent Rule and the Art of Early Feedback. Let Your Values Drive Your Choices. Nearly every problem you face is temporary.

Let Your Values Drive Your Choices

But these temporary problems cause immediate pain. And we often let this pain drive our choices and actions. For example… An employee suffering from the pain of not feeling important enough or powerful enough might take a terrible job with a fancy title.An individual suffering from the pain of feeling unloved or unappreciated or misunderstood might try to resolve that pain by cheating on their spouse.An entrepreneur suffering from the pain of a faltering small business might resort to using questionable marketing tactics to try to drive more sales. …and so on. Understanding the Pareto Principle (The 80/20 Rule) Surprising Secret to Time Management. When you draw up to-do lists, set schedules, make appointments, and so forth, chances are you're wasting most of your time. Turn out there's a mathematical law called the Pareto Principle, which says that (in most situations) 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

The most famous example of this is the oft-repeated factoid that in sales groups 80% of the revenue comes from 20% of the team. (There are dozens of other examples, ranging from wealth distribution to damage from natural disasters.) The Pareto Principle holds sway for most work efforts that aren't purely rote. Most people obtain 80% of their actual results from 20% of their actual effort. Achieve More With Less In Life Using 80/20 Principle. By Celes on Jan 9, 2009 | ShareThis. How to Make Good Decisions ... Faster. Take a look at this paragraph: Cna yuo raed tihs? I cdn'uolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonemnel pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rsereeachr at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in waht oerdr the ltteres in a wrod are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteers be in the rghit pclae. Follow Your Gut and Make Better Decisions with This Simple Test — lifehacker.

The #1 Secret Astronauts, Samurai, Navy SEALs, and Psychopaths Can Teach You About Good Decision Making. We all make a lot of bad decisions. With careers: More than half of teachers quit their jobs within four years. In fact, one study in Philadelphia schools found that a teacher was almost two times more likely to drop out than a student. Decision Making - Start Here! - Financial, Business and Management Decision-Making Skills Training from MindTools. Making the Best Possible Choices How to make good decisions, with James Manktelow & Amy Carlson. Imagine that your company has been expanding rapidly over the past 12 months. Sales are up 50 percent, but costs and overheads have also increased, so your operating profit has fallen.

Tools for Decision Analysis. Decision Maker. How to use The grid lets you enter options (things you'll choose between) in columns. Just click the "add option" button, and enter the name of each option. Then you need to enter criteria that you want to rate your options on, like price, quality, frequency etc. Click the "add criteria" button and name your criteria. The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right. Decisions Under Uncertainty. 7 talks on how we make choices. Now playing Over the years, research has shown a counterintuitive fact about human nature: That sometimes, having too much choice makes us less happy.

This may even be true when it comes to medical treatment. Baba Shiv shares a fascinating study that measures why choice opens the door to doubt, and suggests that ceding control — especially on life-or-death decisions — may be the best thing for us. How To Win The Impulse War Inside Your Brain.