SeaLevel.info. Are We Chasing Imaginary Numbers? Guest Essay by Kip Hansen Spoiler Alert: This essay is not about the mathematical entity the imaginary number.
I do think that an essay here about imaginary numbers of that sort would be interesting, but this isn’t going to be it. This essay, while not about the usual fare seen here – AGW; CAGW; Catastrophic Climate Change; Global Cooling; various oxides of carbon; the pH, level, or surface temperature of oceans; or the antics or ethics (or lack of ethics) of various international scientists and politicians — will hopefully be interesting to the majority of readers. It will ask more questions than it answers. Last Saturday, 3 October 2015, WUWT’s indefatigable Willis Eschenbach published a guest essay regarding an NPR radio report by Ira Flatow that labelled “some recent pictures of flooding in Miami, Florida, as evidence that climate change is real and is already affecting Florida.”
What are the questions here? SeaLevel.info - Mean Sea Level. The mean sea level (MSL) trend at Wismar, Germany is +1.43 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of ±0.11 mm/year, based on monthly mean sea level data from 1866/1 to 2015/12.
That is equivalent to a change of 0.47 feet in 100 years. (R‑squared = 0.368) The plot shows the monthly mean sea level without the regular seasonal fluctuations due to coastal ocean temperatures, salinities, winds, atmospheric pressures, and ocean currents. The long-term linear trend is also shown, in red, along with its 95% confidence interval. Sea Levels are Never Still. By Viv Forbes, Rosewood Qld Australia Sea levels have been rising and falling without any help from humans for as long as Earth’s oceans have existed.
The fastest and most alarming sea changes to affect mankind occurred at the end of the Pleistocene Ice Age. Seas rose about 130m about 12,000 years ago, at times rising at five metres per century. Sea Level Rise, Acceleration, and Closure. Guest essay by Rud Istvan Background.
History falsifies climate alarmist sea level claims. Seas have been rising and falling for thousands of years – without help from the EPA or IPCC Guest essay by Robert W.
Endlich. 35 Scientific Papers: Global Sea Levels Were 1 – 2 Meters Higher Than Now For Most Of The Last 7,000 Years. CO2 Concentration Changes Do Not Drive Sea Levels From about 7000 years ago to 2000 years ago, or from the Mid- to Late-Holocene, atmospheric CO2 concentrations varied between only about 260 and 270 parts per million, or ppm.
Such low CO2 concentrations are believed to be “safe” for the planet, as they are significantly lower than today’s levels, which have eclipsed 400 ppm in recent years. These high CO2 concentrations are believed to cause dangerous warming, rapid glacier melt, and catastrophic sea level rise. And yet, despite the surge in anthropogenic CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 since the 20th century began, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that global sea levels only rose by 1.7 mm/yr during the entire 1901-2010 period, which is a rate of less than 7 inches (17 cm) per century. A new paper even suggests the global trend is better represented as closer to 1.3 mm/yr, or about 5 inches per century:
Asian sea levels changed rapidly 6,000 years ago — natural sea level rise “unprecedented” If you thought seas were constant 6,000 years ago… Microatolls are apparently very accurate proxy for sea levels, giving a higher resolution estimate of sea levels.
But the extra data suggests more natural oscillations in seas than the experts used to think. Six thousand years ago, near Indonesia, seas apparently rose and fell twice by as much as 60 centimeters in a 250 year period. A similar pattern happened 2,600km away in SE China. German Review: Sea Level Rise Way Below Projections – No Hard Basis For Claims Of Accelerating Rise. IPCC 1990: “No convincing evidence that sea level rise accelerated in the 20th century” By Dr Sebastian Lüning and Prof Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated, edited and condensed by P Gosselin)
Acclimatise Climate Change Adaptation Consultants - Welcome to the Acclimatise Network - Climate change adaptation news for businesses and governments. By Luke Jackson, University of Oxford “Sea-level rise” is a loaded statement and instils concern, scepticism and humour.
From a sceptical stand point one could think about your own experience. I have been going to the beach near my parents’ house on the south coast of England for nearly 30 years. In all that time I can’t ever remember paddling in the water and thinking, “gosh, this is higher than it was last year”. New website gives you the real deal on sea level rise and rates. New analysis and graphing tools for sea-level data at SeaLevel.info Guest essay by David Burton now has interactive regression analysis (line/curve fitting) and visualization (graphing) tools available for mean sea level (MSL) measurements from over 1200 tide gauges, plus spreadsheets which combine various subsets of that data.
This article is intended as a primer, for how to use these new tools. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. By Paul Homewood The government has now published its latest UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017, something it is obliged to do every five years by the Climate Change Act 2008. The assessment looks to be wholly based on the report of the same name, published last July by the Committee on Climate Change, (CCC). I think you might see the problem here! The CCC was established under the Climate Change Act, and filled by the government with people who, for various reasons, want to push the global warming agenda. It is called an independent statutory body, but is no such thing. And so we close the circle. Fake USGS Scientists Predict Two Meters Of Sea Level Rise. Threatened by an end to global warming scam money, government scientists turn the volume of their BS up to eleven – predicting two meters of Southern California sea level rise by the year 2100.
From Ice to High Seas: synthesis report of ice2sea. Final meeting of ice2sea highlights sophisticated new modelling techniques to measure ice-melt contribution to future sea-level rise PR No. 07/2013 On Wednesday, 15th May scientists from the major European Union programme ice2sea met in London at the Royal Institution of Great Britain to discuss four years of research into how to better understand and model ice-melt and its contribution to sea-level rise. Stakeholders have been presented with a document that summarises the work done and key findings from more than 150 ice2sea scientific papers published since 2009 in respected scientific journals around the world. The programme was born out of an urgent call for research by the international community following the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC AR4) in 2007, which identified the uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet contributions to sea-level rise as a key problem that must be addressed.
The new ice2sea report’s summary of outcomes states, Notes to editors: No, climate change didn’t cause “5 Whole Pacific Islands” to be swallowed by sea level rise. From the reason #75 why we don’t subscribe to “Scientific American” anymore department. Back in May of 2016, there was the usual brainless caterwauling over Sea Level Rise caused by climate change, SciAm picked it up: Sea-level rise has claimed five whole islands in the Pacific: first scientific evidence Even The Guardian said the headline was hype. 4 New Papers Suggest Falling Sea Levels More Harmful To Corals Than Rapidly Rising Sea Levels.
By Kenneth Richard on 16. March 2017 Are Modern Rates Of Sea Level Rise Too Slow For Optimal Coral Growth? Since the 20th century began, global sea levels have been rising at rates of about 1.7 – 1.8 mm/year, or about 0.17 to 0.18 of a meter (~7 inches) per century. Zerbini et al., 2017 “Our estimated rates for the northern Mediterranean, a relatively small regional sea, are slightly lower than the global mean rate, + 1.7 ± 0.2 mm/year, recently published in the IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report) … Our regional results, however, are in close agreement with the global mean rate, + 1.2 mm/year, published by Hay et al. (2015) which is currently being discussed by the oceanographic community.”
Svendsen et al., 2016 “From our reconstruction, we found that the Arctic mean sea level trend is around 1.5 mm +/- 0.3 mm/y for the period 1950 to 2010, between 68ºN and 82ºN. Sea Level Decline Over The Past 1,700 Years. A Historic Perspective on the Greenland Ice Sheet and its Contribution to Global Sea Level. Paper Reviewed Vasskog, K., Langebroek, P.M., Andrews, J.T., Nilsen, J.E.Ø. and Nesje, A. 2015. Greenland Ice Melt Has Caused Only 7 Millimeters Of Sea Level Rise From 2002 To 2011! Greenland isn’t melting rapidly after all. Spiegel Report: “Greenland Melting More Slowly Than Expected” …Sea Level Rise Alarm Called Off! Antarctica And Greenland Melt Accelerating, Study Claims. By P Gosselin on 9. March 2011 According to innovations-report.de, a new paper on Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet melt will be published in the Geophysical Research Letters later this month. Its title: Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to sea level rise.
It’s authors: E. Recent Sea-Level Change at Major Cities. NOAA Jumps The Shark In Tampa Bay. 3 New Papers: Global Seas Now Rising About 2 Inches Per Century … Claims Of 1 Meter Rise By 2100 ‘Sheer Nonsense’ According to the most highly-cited estimate of recent (1992 – 2011) polar ice sheet melt rates, the land ice on Greenland and Antarctica has been contributing to sea level rise at a rate of 0.59 mm/year in the modern era, which means the equivalent of 5.9 centimeters (2.3 inches) per century of sea level rise might eventually accrue if the polar ice sheets continue melting at current rates for the next 10 decades. Shepherd et al., 2012 Since 1992 [through 2011], the polar ice sheets [Antarctica and Greenland] have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise. If Sea Level Was Rising, Wouldn’t Someone Have Noticed? Sea Level Rises: Fact or Fiction? North American Case Study - Principia Scientific International.
Atlantic City Sea Level, Diving Horses, and Modeling of Ice Sheet Changes. “Atlantic City Gambles on Rising Seas” Watts Up With That? The Deplorable Climate Science Blog. Sea level rise – or land subsidence? New Paper: Lower Arctic Sea Level Rise Estimated At Only 1.5 Millimeters Per Year! No Sea Level Rise At Lower Manhattan For 20 Years. NASA Hiding The Decline In Sea Level And Temperature. Sea Level Rise: Just the Facts. Floating Islands. Does Global Warming Cause Coastal Reef Islands to Disappear? New Evidence That Reef Islands Can Repair Storm Wave Damage. How Are Earth's Islands Being Impacted by Rising Sea Levels? A New Refutation of Dangerous CO2-Induced Global Warming.