Steve McIntyre uncovers another hockey stick trick – where are the academic cops? | Watts Up With That? NOTE: since this is clearly an important finding with far reaching implications, this will be a “top post” at WUWT for the next couple of days. I urge other bloggers to spread the word. – Anthony Just when you think the bottom of the Hockey Stick rabbit hole has been reached, Steve McIntyre finds yet more evidence of misconduct by the Team. The research was from Briffa and Osborn (1999) published in Science magazine and purported to show the consistency of the reconstruction of past climate using tree rings with other reconstructions including the Mann Hockey Stick.
But the trick was exposed in the Climategate dossier, which also included code segments and datasets. In the next picture, Steve shows what Briffa and Osborn did – not only did they truncate their reconstruction to hide a steep decline in the late 20th Century but also a substantial early segment from 1402-1550: In the comments, Kip Hansen posts the following: Like this: Like Loading... Busted Hockey Sticks: 35 Non-Global Warming Papers Have Been Published In 2019.
By Kenneth Richard on 22. March 2019 Could a transition in paleoclimate reconstruction be underway? More and more, scientists aren’t hiding statements or graphical depictions of the lack of modern warming or the much-warmer Holocene past. A compilation of 35 papers from across the globe indicate that modern climate is not unusual, remarkable or unprecedented, and that large regions of the Earth were as warm or warmer than now when CO2 concentrations were much lower (260 to 350 ppm). This development continues apace with the trends from the last two years, when 253 non-hockey stick papers were published. Tonno et al., 2019 “In North Europe, changes in early Holocene climate were rather intense, starting with low temperatures at the beginning of the period, followed by gradual warming, interrupted periodically by short cooling periods (Antonsson and Seppa¨ 2007). Pitulko et al., 2019 Salvatteci et al., 2019 Rohling et al., 2019 Røthe et al., 2019 Liu et al., 2019 Steinman et al., 2019.
The behind the scenes bumbling of the hockey stick | Watts Up With That? Mann oh Mann. Tom Nelson continues to wade through the 5000+ Climategate 2 emails. I’ve selected a few he’s highlighted in the vein of behind the scenes discussion of Dr. Michael Mann’s infamous “hockey stick” which claimed we were living in a period of unprecedented warmth. It seems though, that the stick isn’t nearly as robust as we have been led to believe, such as it isn’t consistently replicable by the team itself and Briffa admits the trees are more precipitation sensitive (told ya so), and besides, Mann says it all big oil’s fault anyway. Email 4990, Mar 2006, Richard Alley to Michael Mann: “she was not convincing that trees were thermometers when it was warm a millennium ago but are not thermometers when it is warm now” Email 4990 Email 775, Feb 2006, Briffa to Henry Pollack date: Wed Feb 15 15:49:58 2006 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Science paper to: Henry Pollackthanks Henry – sorry also about the ridiculous way the Paleo chapter is being rushed.
Email 4853 Email 4854 Email 4758. The Proliferation Of Non-Global Warming Graphs In Science Journals Continues Unabated In 2018. During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals that indicated modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability. Less than 3 weeks into the new publication year, the explosion of non-alarming depictions of modern climate change continues. Blarquez et al., 2018 Magyari et al., 2018 …its climatic tolerance limits were used to infer July mean temperatures exceeding modern values by 2.8°C at this time [8200-6700 cal yr BP] (Magyari et al., 2012).
White et al., 2018 Our data, together with published work, indicate both a long-term trend in ENSO strength due to June insolation [solar] forcing and high-amplitude decadalcentennial fluctuations; both behaviors are shown in models. Song et al., 2018 Huang et al., 2018 Perner et al., 2018 Maley et al., 2018 Polovodova Asteman et al., 2018 Papadomanolaki et al., 2018 (Baltic Sea) Yi, 2018 Bereiter et al., 2018 (press release) 80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming. By Kenneth Richard on 29. May 2017 “[W]hen it comes to disentangling natural variability from anthropogenically affected variability the vast majority of the instrumental record may be biased.” — Büntgen et al., 2017 Yes, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades or at some point in the last 100 years.
Some regions have been cooling for decades at a time. And many regions have shown no significant net changes or trends in either direction relative to the last few hundred to thousands of years. Succinctly, then, scientists publishing in peer-reviewed journals have increasingly affirmed that there is nothing historically unprecedented or remarkable about today’s climate when viewed in the context of long-term natural variability. Büntgen et al., 2017 “Spanning the period 1186-2014 CE, the new reconstruction reveals overall warmer conditions around 1200 and 1400, and again after ~1850.
Parker and Ollier, 2017 Gennaretti et al., 2017 Abrantes et al., 2017 Werner et al., 2017. 17 New (2017) Scientific Papers Affirm Today’s Warming Is Not Global, Unprecedented, Or Remarkable. By Kenneth Richard on 26. January 2017 A collection of 60 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in 2016 were displayed here last month in an article entitled, “The Hockey Stick Collapses: 60 New (2016) Scientific Papers Affirm Today’s Warming Isn’t Global, Unprecedented, Or Remarkable“. Each paper from the 2016 collection cast doubt on claims of an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times.
Yes, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades (i.e., the Arctic since the 1990s), or at some point in the last 100 years. Some regions have been cooling for decades at a time (i.e., the Arctic during the 1950s to 1980s, the Southern Ocean since 1979). In other words, there is nothing historically unprecedented or remarkable about today’s climate when viewed in the context of natural variability. And the scientific evidence continues to accumulate for 2017. Köse et al., 2017 (Turkey, Europe) Flannery et al., 2017 (Florida, U.S.) Wu et al., 2017 (South China Sea) The Hockey Stick Collapses: 60 New (2016) Scientific Papers Affirm Today’s Warming Isn’t Global, Unprecedented, Or Remarkable.
Two fundamental tenets of the anthropogenic global warming narrative are (1) the globe is warming (i.e., it’s not just regional warming), and (2) the warming that has occurred since 1950 can be characterized as remarkable, unnatural, and largely unprecedented. In other words, today’s climate is substantially and alarmingly different than what has occurred in the past….because the human impact has been profound. Well, maybe not. Scientists are increasingly finding that the two fundamental points cited above may not be supported by the evidence. In 2016, an examination of the peer-reviewed scientific literature has uncovered dozens of paleoclimate reconstructions that reveal modern “global” warming has not actually been global in scale after all, as there are a large number of regions on the globe where it has been cooling for decades. In fact, there is a growing body of evidence that the warming in recent decades is not even unprecedented within the context of the last 80 years.