Future of Humanity Institute - Future of Humanity Institute. Nick Bostrom's Home Page. CSER. The Long Now. Association of Professional Futurists. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies. Tomorrow is built today. The World in 2030: Four scenarios for long-term planning and strategy. By Ross Dawson Recently I did the opening keynote to the top executive team of a major organization at their strategy offsite.
It’s not appropriate to share the full presentation, however I can share the rough scenarios I presented for the world to 2030. The scenarios were presented after having examined the driving forces and critical uncertainties for the company. As always, a strong disclaimer comes with any generic set of scenarios like these – scenarios really must be created by the users themselves for specific decisions and in context (for the full disclaimer see my scenarios for the future of financial services). A traditional scenario process identifies two dimensions to uncertainty, that when combined produce a matrix of four scenarios. Institute For The Future. Thefutureoflife.org. Welcome to the Institute for Global Futures. Welcome to WFSF. GFIS. DaVinci Institute.
Foresight and Innovation at Stanford University. ACE. The goal of the ACE Program is to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts.
The ACE Program seeks technical innovations in the following areas: (a) efficient elicitation of probabilistic judgments, including conditional probabilities for contingent events; (b) mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include: past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy; and (c) effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions. The ACE Program will build upon technical achievements of past research and on state-of-the-art systems used today for generating probabilistic forecasts from widely-dispersed experts. Related Program(s) The Aggregative Contingent Estimation System: Selecting, Rewarding, and Training Experts in a Wisdom of Crowds Approach to Forecasting - aaai2012_ACES_submission.pdf. Welcome to the Good Judgment Project. Arcosanti : Home.
Resources for the Future - RFF.org. Club of Amsterdam - Shaping Your Future in the Knowledge Society. Global Futures Studies & Research by The Millennium Project.