background preloader

AMO/NAO/PDO (Ocean Oscillations)

Facebook Twitter

AMO--Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
NAO--North Atlantic Oscillation
PDO--Pacific Decadal Oscillation

New Study Finds A Robust Link Between European Temperatures And Solar Activity Via AMO/NAO Modulation. By Kenneth Richard on 22.

New Study Finds A Robust Link Between European Temperatures And Solar Activity Via AMO/NAO Modulation

October 2020 European winter temperature variability is “dominated” by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is, in turn, modulated by solar activity. Even proponents of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) agree natural processes (AMO, NAO, ENSO, solar forcing, volcanism) drive temperature variability. But they insist the rising temperature trend is human-caused. So if we don’t have a regional upward trend, is the non-warming natural or anthropogenic? Lüdecke et al., 2020 find temperatures across Europe have been oscillating, not rising in linear fashion, for the last century. Internal Multidecadal and Interdecadal Climate Oscillations: Absence of Evidence Is No Evidence of Absence.

Reposted under a Creative Commons License Gisela Müller-Plath* Department of Psychology and Ergonomics, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany Introduction The present paper contributes a critical commentary on the recent finding by Mann, M.

Internal Multidecadal and Interdecadal Climate Oscillations: Absence of Evidence Is No Evidence of Absence

E., Steinman, B. In Parts Of Japan, Mean Maximum Temperatures May Be More Impacted By Remote Ocean Cycles Than By CO2. By P Gosselin on 26.

In Parts Of Japan, Mean Maximum Temperatures May Be More Impacted By Remote Ocean Cycles Than By CO2

September 2020 By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin Today, according to government scientists, CO2 is supposed to be the dominant climate driver, overwhelming all the other power natural forces such as solar variability and oceanic cycles. Map (right): JMA Yet when we compare (untampered) datasets, we often find surprising parallels and underlying correlations with these now ignored natural factors, which tell us CO2 isn’t what the activists want us to believe it is and that things are really much messier than the simplistic CO2-temperature correlation. Today we look at a plot of the annual mean daily maximum temperature from Uwajima, Japan, together with the plot of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) going back almost 100 years.

Policymakers Misled…New Nature Study “Casts Doubt On Forecasts Of Regional Climate Change” A new paper reveals that climate models have failed to take important natural factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, into account in their climate models on which leaders have been basing their policies.

Policymakers Misled…New Nature Study “Casts Doubt On Forecasts Of Regional Climate Change”

A new paper in Nature says NAO not taken adequately into account by climate models. Image: see video (German) here.

Ocean Oscillations and Arctic Temperatures

Red Sea Temperature Record Shows It Follows The AMO, Not CO2 … “Natural Climate Oscillations” Critique of Mann’s new paper characterizing the AMO. New Study: North America Has Been Cooling Since 1998 – With No Significant Overall Warming Since 1982. By Kenneth Richard on 14.

New Study: North America Has Been Cooling Since 1998 – With No Significant Overall Warming Since 1982

March 2019 Image Source: Gan et al., 2019 North America (180-0°N, 15-60°N) has been characterized as a “major cooling center” by the authors of a new paper (Gan et al., 2019) published in Earth and Space Science. The continent warmed from 1982-1998, but a cooling trend since 1998 has nearly wiped out all the previous warming. Climate Fish Tales. What’s Natural?

Climate Fish Tales

Guest essay by Jim Steele American folk lore is filled with stories of how Native Americans observed changes in wildlife and foretold future weather changes. I was fascinated by an 1800s story of Native Americans inhabiting regions around Marysville, California who had moved down into the river valleys during drought years. They then moved to higher ground before devastating floods occurred. Early 20th century global warming. By Judith Curry A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950.

Early 20th century global warming

Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming. This is an issue that has long interested me. Peter Webster wrote a previous post Mid 20th Century Global(?) Earth Science Reviews FG 2016. North Atlantic Oscillation. By Paul Homewood If you had not noticed (!)

North Atlantic Oscillation

, it has been a mild and wet start to the year here in the UK, and also across in NW Europe. No doubt this will be linked to global warming in due course, but in fact it is simply weather, as the CET chart below proves: North Atlantic climate far more predictable following major scientific breakthrough. A team of scientists, led by UK Met Office, has achieved a scientific breakthrough allowing the longer-term prediction of North Atlantic pressure patterns, the key driving force behind winter weather in Europe and eastern North America.

North Atlantic climate far more predictable following major scientific breakthrough

CMCC scientists Panos Athanasiadis, Alessio Bellucci, Dario Nicolì and Paolo Ruggieri from CSP – Climate Simulation and Prediction Division were also involved in this study. Published in Nature, the study analysed six decades of climate model data and suggests decadal variations in North Atlantic atmospheric pressure patterns (known as the North Atlantic Oscillation) are highly predictable, enabling advanced warning of whether winters in the coming decade are likely to be stormy, warm and wet or calm, cold and dry. However, the study revealed that this predictable signal is much smaller than it should be in current climate models. Read more:The paper on Nature:Smith, D.M., Scaife, A.A., Eade, R. et al. Causes of the Rapid Warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the Mid-1990s. By Paul Homewood Most of us are probably familiar with the pattern of Arctic sea ice decline between 1979 and 2007, followed by a period of relative stability.

Causes of the Rapid Warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the Mid-1990s

Most of the decline took place after the mid 1990s. The decline is nearly always explained away as the result of global warming, but a couple of old studies show this not to be the case. North Atlantic Oscillation phases, tree growth, and droughts. From the UNIVERSITY OF THE BASQUE COUNTRY, and the “climate phenomena not related to CO2” department. Droughts and ecosystems are determined by the interaction of two climate phenomena What is causing the droughts that the Iberian Peninsula regularly endures?

Why are the winters sometimes mild and rainy and other times cold and dry or cold and damp? Scientists: Antarctica Ice Sheet Thinned 400 Meters 5000 Years Ago, And Natural Oceanic Cycles Drive Climate. Today we present two papers on climate reconstruction using proxy data. One about East Antarctica and the other about belize. Hat-tip reader Mary Brown. AMO behind sea surface temperatures First we look at a paper authored by a team of German scientists: “Great Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize): A continuous, annually-resolved record of Common Era sea surface temperature, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and cyclone-controlled run-off“.

The team looked at 2000 years of proxy data from Belize and found interesting natural cycles at play. 40-Year Meteorologist Says Recent Global Warming Due To Natural, Ocean-Cycle-Related Water Vapor, Not CO2. At Weatherbell’s most recent Saturday Summary, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi presents the main reason why he believes the globe has been warming over the past decades: more water vapor in the atmosphere due to natural ocean cycles. The mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown induced by Arctic sea ice decline: Journal of Climate: Early Online Release. Glacier loss in Hawaii tied to change in North Atlantic AMOC current. Study: Atlantic Ocean circulation is not collapsing – but the press release adds climate porn. Mann-made Global Cooling. The usual suspects are sounding alarms about the ocean “conveyor belt” AMOC slowing down, and predicting that global warming will result in global cooling.

The Ocean’s Conveyor Belt Is Slowing Down: What You Need to Know About AMOC, Greenland and ‘Unprecedented’ Sea Level Rise. Climate Pacemaker: The AMOC. Update May 19, 2015 text added at end. We hear a lot about CO2 as climate’s “control knob, but about the oceans’ pacemaker, AMOC? Not so much. AMO: Atlantic Climate Pulse. Tisdale: How Much of an Impact Does the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Have on Arctic Sea Ice Extent? Last week I asked Bob Tisdale to take a hard look at potential correlations between the AMO and Arctic sea ice extent, and he rose to the challenge – Anthony.

Contribution of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to the recent abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific since 1998: Journal of Climate: Early Online Release. Study: U.S. climate closely follows Pacific ocean cycle known as the PDO.