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December 2o15

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1,5°C ou 2°C ? "On oublie la science..." Etat du texte mercredi soir.Ce matin, lors de matinale de France Inter, l'état des négociations en cours à la COP-21 était au menu.

1,5°C ou 2°C ? "On oublie la science..."

Invité à expliquer la situation, alors que le texte en discussion ( ici en pdf) comporte encore de nombreuses options qui ne seront tranchées qu'au niveau des ministres, j'ai mis en exergue sa "schizophrénie". Elle apparaît clairement avec l'introduction d'un nouvel objectif climatique, limiter à 1,5°C l'élévation de la température moyenne de la planète relativement à la période pré-industrielle. Un objectif réclamé par de nombreux pays très vulnérables et que plusieurs pays industrialisés accepteraient de voir inscrire dans le texte... précisé d'un "si possible" selon la formule utilisée par François Hollande lors de son discours d'ouverture de la COP-21.

Yves Decaens m'a demandé si "le mieux est l'ennemi du bien". Mais la question ne se pose pas ainsi. Même si Les négociateurs ont oublié la science en chemin. Il vaut mieux dire la vérité que la cacher. Explosive cyclogenesis with intense low passing through Iceland at peak intensity. A very strong low pressure system developed over the past couple of days in the North Atlantic.

Explosive cyclogenesis with intense low passing through Iceland at peak intensity

It deepened to a very intense central pressure of 928 hPa at 06:00 UTC on December 30, 2015, and is one of the strongest systems to have impacted the Atlantic in recorded history. L’ère du pétrole pas cher ne fait que commencer. How will Midwest farmers prepare for the impact of climate change? You can bet the farm that climate change is happening — and that it will change the way we approach agriculture.

How will Midwest farmers prepare for the impact of climate change?

For example, here’s the climate science forecast for Illinois 20 to 40 years from now: temperatures akin to today’s mid-South and rainfall patterns comparable to present-day East Texas. Climate change is coming for the Southwest’s forests. Southwest folks, prepare to wave farewell to your beloved pines.

Climate change is coming for the Southwest’s forests

A new study predicts that 72 percent of the Southwest’s needleleaf evergreen forests will die off by 2050, and nearly all of them will disappear by the end of the century. And who is the villain behind this future calamity, you might be wondering? No surprise here — it’s climate change. The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change on Monday, based its bleak conclusion on a variety of field results, regional projections, and global simulation models. After wettest December on record, another round of severe weather to hit UK. December 2015 is already a record breaking month for rainfall in parts of the UK.

After wettest December on record, another round of severe weather to hit UK

The spell of wet weather spread across portions of north Wales and northwest England on December 26, 2015 brought flooding to the area already saturated with water. The highest amount of rainfall was observed in Snowdonia with 200 mm (7.9 inches) of precipitation. 130 mm (5.1 inches) was reported in Lancashire while approximately 100 mm (3.9 inches) of rain has fallen around other most affected areas, according to UK Met Office. Flooding in UK, December 27, 2015. Image credit: BBC Look North via Weather Watch UK. Two months in, Porter Ranch gas leak compared to BP Gulf oil spill. The smell came from the canyons and drifted over their neighborhoods in late October, but most residents who live in the gated communities of Porter Ranch thought the northerly gusts of wind common to their area would sweep the stench of rotten eggs away.

Two months in, Porter Ranch gas leak compared to BP Gulf oil spill

Instead, the odor persisted. Dans les Alpes, le crépuscule des géants blancs. From Halliburton to Walmart, these big corporations will make money off of climate change. This story was originally published by Mother Jones and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

From Halliburton to Walmart, these big corporations will make money off of climate change

Climate change will have some pretty terrifying consequences. Experts have predicted everything from deadly heatwaves and devastating floods to falling crop production and even increased political instability and violence. But according to some of the world’s biggest companies, these future disasters could also present lucrative business opportunities. In a remarkable series of documents submitted to a London-based nonprofit called CDP, big-name corporations describe global warming as a chance to sell more weapons systems to the military, more air conditioners to sweltering civilians, and more medications to people afflicted by tropical diseases. UK floods: Extra soldiers sent to stricken areas. Le changement climatique ralentit bien la rotation de la Terre.

Dix pays s'allient pour sauver 100 millions d'hectares de forêts en Afrique d'ici 2030. En marge de la conférence de l'ONU sur le climat lors de la COP21 à Paris, dix pays africains se sont engagés dans un large plan de reforestation.

Dix pays s'allient pour sauver 100 millions d'hectares de forêts en Afrique d'ici 2030

Cette initiative prévoie de remettre en état près de 100 millions d'hectares de forêts et de terres agricoles pour l'instant encore improductives. La planète a de la fièvre, par Cécile Marin (Le Monde diplomatique, novembre 2015) Le monde comme il va, 10 jours après la Cop 21. Dans le texte adopté en clôture de la Cop 21 est inscrit l’objectif de « contenir l’élévation de la température moyenne nettement en dessous de 2°C par rapport aux niveaux préindustriels et de poursuivre l’action menée pour limiter l’élévation des températures à 1,5°C ».Dix jours plus tard, les nouvelles du monde nous montrent à quel point le climat devient secondaire sous toutes les latitudes en dépit de la douceur inhabituelle de cette fin d’automne.

Le monde comme il va, 10 jours après la Cop 21

Qu’on en juge :A Téhéran et dans trois autres grandes villes d’Iran, il a fallu fermer les écoles en raison de la pollution de l’air résultant du chauffage et surtout de la circulation automobile. El Niño Could Usher in a Decade of Stronger Events. By Luc Cohen, Reuters In Buffalo, early December meant breaking a 116-year-old record for a lack of snow.

El Niño Could Usher in a Decade of Stronger Events

In Duluth, Minn., a newspaper reported that the temperature was 40 degrees above zero, not below. And in Miami, beachgoers stayed indoors during what had become the third-wettest December in local history, just eight days into the month. What's going on with the weather? It's the phenomenon called El Niño, which is happening now as ocean water temperatures rise above normal across the central and eastern Pacific, near the equator. Snow melts into the South Yuba River near Big Bend, Calif., Dec. 4, 2015. Greenland Ice Sheet during the 20th Century. For the first time, climate researchers from the Centre for GeoGenetics at the Natural History Museum of Denmark, together with a national and an International team of researchers, have pubished in the scientific journal Nature their direct observations of the reduction and melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the latest 110 years.

All previous estimations have been based on computer models, which although valuable do not provide the same level of insight as direct observations. In this paper, the researchers can pinpoint where the ice sheet is particularly sensitive and what controls the loss of glacier ice in Greenland. However, most importantly, the observation-based results close a gap in IPCC's estimate of global sea level budget and should be taken under strong consideration for the next IPCC convention. The fluctuating temperatures and their effect on the Greenland Ice Sheet during the 20th Century is often a matter highly debated. We just had a record-breaking wildfire season. Is that climate change? When fire came to Chelan, Wash., it arrived with all the chaos and drama of a fictional apocalypse. Crowds of tourists gathered to watch a jagged orange line of flame crawl up Chelan Butte, a giant brown hillock that pinches this small city against a namesake lake that punches 50 miles into the steep, glaciated Cascades.

Then the crowd ran screaming when 40-mph winds reversed and drove the fire line toward the homes and restaurants that edge the lake. Arctic Report Card. Daech, le climat et le pic pétrolier : aperçu des « tempêtes parfaites » de demain. The world is waking up to the big financial risks of global warming. The chilling science on Alaska’s melting permafrost. Up to a quarter of the permafrost that lies just under the ground surface in Alaska could thaw by the end of the century, releasing long-trapped carbon that could make its way into the atmosphere and exacerbate global warming, a new study finds.

The study, detailed in the journal Remote Sensing of Environment, maps where that near-surface permafrost lies across Alaska in more detail than previous efforts. Severe Storm "Diddú", the strongest Icelandic storm in 25 years. A severe Storm "Diddú", the first-ever named Icelandic storm hit the island on December 7, 2015, bringing heavy rains, snow and hurricane force winds. No injuries have been reported thanks to an effective warning system, although some ares suffered severe property damage.

The violent storm was the worst to hit Iceland in 25 years, according to local media. SCIENCE: Bad news for the climate as methane leaks far surpass previous estimates. Emissions of methane from the oil and gas industry vastly exceed federal government estimates, according to a definitive study published yesterday. The study finds that daily leaks of the potent greenhouse gas from oil and gas wells in Texas' Barnett Shale matched the annual emissions of 8,000 cars. Meanwhile, in California's Aliso Canyon, a natural gas storage site has leaked at least 800,000 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalents of methane since Oct. 23, equal to the annual emissions from 168,421 cars. This new initiative out of Paris will help fight climate change with trees.

When world leaders gathered in Paris to open negotiations for a pivotal international climate agreement, I was happy to see so many heads of state reaffirm the central role of trees and forest landscape restoration in fighting and adapting to climate change. As an African woman and the daughter of Nobel laureate Wangari Maathai, founder of the Green Belt Movement, the restoration agenda is very close to me. The movement my mother established has been mobilizing communities for close to 40 years to restore their landscapes by planting trees for food, for fuel, and to bring barren land back to productive life.

COP21 :« L’air a désormais un prix. Ton documentaire s’ouvre sur la lutte des sidérurgistes en Lorraine. 18,000 fires rage in Brazil's Amazon rainforest. "200-year flood" - Southern Norway immersed in heavy flooding. Le changement climatique pointé du doigt dans les inondations meurtrières en Inde. Severe flooding prompts evacuations as Storm Desmond sweeps across UK. Révolte globale contre un géant minier, par Philippe Revelli. Comment le discours médiatique sur l'écologie est devenu une morale de classe. Environmental Action. Une majorité de grandes entreprises françaises ne respecteront pas leurs engagements en matière d'émissions de CO2.

Couvrir le réchauffement climatique. #COP21 #OCCUPY CLIMATE-CHANGE PARIS 2o15.