The Antarctic Peninsula: No Longer the Canary in the Coal Mine - Antarctic Peninsula Cooled Nearly 1°C During 1999–2014. Paper Reviewed Oliva, M., Navarro, F, Hrbácek, F., Hernández, A., Nývlt, D., Pereira, P., Ruiz-Fernández, J. and Trigo, R. 2017. Recent regional climate cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula and associated impacts on the cryosphere. Science of the Total Environment 580: 210-223. Climate alarmists generally contend that current temperatures are both unnatural and unprecedented, as a result of global warming caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions; and they claim that this "unnaturalness" is most strongly expressed throughout the world's polar regions. In this regard, they often point to warming on the Antarctic Peninsula (typically the Faraday/Vernadsky station) as the proverbial canary in the coal mine, where over the past several decades it has experienced warming rates that are among the highest reported anywhere on Earth.
However, in recent years two studies have challenged this assessment. Figure 1. References Carrasco, J.F. 2013. Antarctic ice expansion shows climate models unreliable. While there have been thousands of legacy media stories about the very real decline in summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic Ocean, we can’t find one about the statistically significant increase in Antarctic sea ice that has been observed at the same time. Also, comparisons between forecast temperature trends down there and what’s been observed are very few and far between. Here’s one published in 2015: Observed (blue) and model-forecast (red) Antarctic sea-ice extent published by Shu et al. (2015) shows a large and growing discrepancy, but for unknown reasons, their illustration ends in 2005.
For those who utilize and trust in the scientific method, forming policy (especially multi-trillion dollar policies!) Sound policy, in contrast, is best formulated when it is based upon repeated and verifiable observations that are consistent with the projections of climate models. Figure 1. Why is this important? Craig D. 20+ Scientists: ‘No Continent-Scale Warming Of Antarctic Temperature Is Evident In The Last Century’
Image Source: State of the Climate, 2016 For several decades now, Antarctica has not been cooperating with the “global” warming narrative, as the continent as a whole has not been warming. Several scientific papers have been published recently that document the lack of an anthropogenic warming signal for the Antarctic continent or the surrounding ocean, as well as the dominance of natural variability. Smith and Polvani (2016) concluded that warming of West Antarctica or the Antarctic Peninsula are predominantly natural. “[We] conclude that there is little evidence of anthropogenic SAM-induced driving of the recent temperature trends … compelling evidence pointing to natural climate variability as a key contributor to the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula“ “The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer.”
A 2,000-Year Cooling Trend For Antarctica, Uninterrupted By Rising CO2 Levels. New Antarctic Sea Ice Video – shows cycles and ice growth | Watts Up With That? Antarctic Sea Ice Complete Video by Jeff Id , reposted here by invitation. The video animation Jeff put together is well worth watching, see it below the “read more” line. – Anthony Figure 1 - Wilkins Ice Shelf - A map of the Antarctic Peninsula with the location of the the Wilkins Ice Sheet, which is on the southern portion of the peninsula. Credit: British Antarctic Survey Antarctic temperatures and sea ice are becoming quite a hobby. The melting of the Wilkins ice shelf has happened over and over prompting numerous articles like the following. Wilkins Ice Shelf About to Break Off and Alter the Map of Antarctica Vast Antarctic Ice Shelf on Verge of Collapse The headlines are truly endless and will continue this year as well.
Here is a video which is particularly pertinent in it’s discussion and the fact that it ends with a discussion of climate science by Hillary Clinton. Wilkins Ice Shelf Collapse Video Figure 2 The annual variance of the sea ice is shown in Figure 3. Like this: New Paper Indicates Antarctica Has Been Gaining Ice Mass Since 1800. By Kenneth Richard on 30. March 2017 “Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away” — NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses For decades scientists have suggested that the effects of a climatic warming would likely lead to an increase in Antarctica’s surface mass balance (i.e., mass gains exceed losses), and this would lead to a concomitant lowering of sea levels. Oerlemans, 1982 “The results indicate that a climatic warming will probably lead to a sea-level lowering of some tens of centimetres in the next centuries.
Huybrechts and Oerlemans, 1990 “According to this mass balance model, the amount of accumulation over the entire ice sheet is presently 24.06 x 1011 m3 of ice, and no runoff takes place. Huybrechts et al., 2004 Lenaerts et al. 2016 Thomas et al., 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Claims Don’t Stand Up To Scrutiny | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. By Paul Homewood From Yahoo: A few days ago, the US National Snow and Ice Data Center announced that the Antarctic sea ice contracted to just 883,015 sq. miles, which is the smallest on record. Experts assert that, if changes are not made to pollution and our fossil fuel industry, a number of species will be threatened as sea levels (and temperatures) continue to rise.
The Antarctic ice sheet goes through a cycle of expansion and contraction every year. Ultimately, the ice that exists around the continent melts during the southern hemisphere’s summer, which occurs towards the end of February, and expands again when autumn sets in. However, that melting is increasing dramatically. This week, the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) announced that the sea ice contracted to just 883,015 sq. miles (2.28m sq. km). NSIDC’s propagandist in chief, Mark Serreze, is quite clear: Skeptic paper on Antarctica accepted – rebuts Steig et al | Watts Up With That? In a blow to the Real Climate “hockey team” one team member’s paper, Steig et al Nature, Jan 22, 2009 (seen at left) has been shown lacking.
Once appropriate statistical procedures were applied, the real data spoke clearly, and it was done in a peer reviewed paper by skeptics. Jeff Condon of the Air Vent writes via email that he and co-authors, Ryan O’Donnell, Nicholas Lewis, and Steve McIntyre have succeeded in getting a paper accepted into the prestigious Journal of Climate and asked me to re-post the notice here.
The review process was difficult, with one reviewer getting difficult on submitted comments [and subsequent rebuttal comments from authors ] that became longer than the submitted paper, 88 pages, 10 times the length of the paper they submitted! I commend them for their patience in wading through such formidable bloviation. Anyone want to bet that reviewer was a “team” member? WUWT visitors may want to read this primer which explains how this happens. Jeff writes: Like this: West Antarctic Glacial Melting From Deep Earth Geological Heat Flow Not Global Warming | Climate Change Dispatch. A few of West Antarctica’s glaciers that lie directly above the 5,000-mile long, world class, heat-emitting West Antarctic Fault / Rift System are bottom melting from deep earth geologically induced high geothermal heat flow and heated fluid flow, not manmade atmospheric global warming. Figure 1. Recently released and widely publicized NASA high altitude photo of West Antarctic area where three glaciers are bottom melting at an accelerated rate.
A proxy for high melting rate, high glacial velocity, is shown as red shading and black arrows (photo credit NASA Earth Observatory). The media and prominent entities studying Antarctica’s glaciers, most notably the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), see things quite differently. They believe that the increased basal melting of these West Antarctic glaciers is from manmade atmospheric global warming. Overall ice mass and extent of Antarctica has increased for 35 years. Let’s begin by reviewing Figure 1. Figure 2.) Figure 3.) Researchers discover volcanic activity is changing Antarctica’s geology | Climate Change Dispatch.
On January 10, 2016, amid a flurry of worldwide media fanfare, a team of 44 scientists from Australia’s Antarctic Division set sail from Hobart Australia headed for the Kerguelen Plateau (figure 1) located off the coast of Antarctica on what was billed as a Global Warming / Climate Change Research Project (Antarctic Scientists head to Biological Hotspot studying climate change in Southern Ocean).
Figure 1: Map showing the location of the Kerguelen Plateau, Kerguelen Islands, and Heard Island (Supplied: AAD). This Plateau is approximately 600 miles north of Antarctica. The research premise was that man-made global warming was heating the ocean regions in the Kerguelen Plateau region and hurting seals, whales, birds, and worst of all, melting sea ice. They wrote that this series of environmental catastrophes was “destabilizing the region’s delicate ecosystem” and was the by-product of man-made ocean warming.
Characterizing the Kerguelen Plateau ecosystem as “delicate” is also not correct. Underwater volcanoes heating Antarctic waters. 11 Jul 2011 - Scientists from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have discovered previously unknown volcanoes in the ocean waters around the remote South Sandwich Islands. Using ship-borne sea-floor mapping technology during research cruises onboard the RRS James Clark Ross, the scientists found 12 volcanoes beneath the sea surface — some up to 3km (1.86 miles) high. They found 5km (3 mile) diameter craters left by collapsing volcanoes and 7 active volcanoes visible above the sea as a chain of islands.
According to a press release from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States (PNAS), "this sub-sea landscape, with its waters warmed by volcanic activity creates a rich habitat for many species of wildlife and adds valuable new insight about life on earth. " (Italics added) The research is also important for understanding what happens when volcanoes erupt or collapse underwater and their potential for creating serious hazards such as tsunamis. An Ice Shelf Is Cracking In Antarctica, But Not For The Reason You Think. A NASA scientist with project IceBridge took this photo of the crack in November. John Sonntag/NASA A group of scientists is gathering today in the U.K. to discuss a slab of ice that's cracking in Antarctica. The crack could soon split off a frozen chunk the size of Delaware. One glacier scientist, Heidi Sevestre, spent six weeks last year living on that giant slab of ice off the Antarctic Peninsula.
"It's like being on a different planet," says Sevestre, a glaciologist with the University of St Andrews in Scotland. "Everything is gigantic, everything is white," she says. "When you're camping on the ice shelf, you have no idea that you're on something that is floating and moving," she says. The ice shelf is in constant motion: rising with the tides, splitting off icebergs at its edges, and growing again as inland glaciers feed it. The ice shelf Sevestre was studying is called Larsen C, and it now has a massive 90-mile crack running through it. Ice Shelf Collapse Jeremy Harbeck/NASA. Larsen C Ice Shelf Crack Not Related To Climate Change …Ice “More Stable Than Previously Thought” By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof Fritz Vahrenholt (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin) Image: visibleearth.nasa.gov A huge crack recently formed through the Antarctic Larsen C ice shelf.
The German Tagesspiegel here was fair and did not attribute it to climate change: A huge iceberg threatens to break away from Antarctica An iceberg twice the size of Saarland threatens to break off the Larsen-C ice shelf. Read more at Tagesspiegel. That’s a normal process: Self ice forms, but does not last forever. A look back over the past 10,000 years yields additional amazing facts.
A number of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have also experienced major fluctuations during the Holocene. During the Holocene thermal maximum 6000 years ago, the outer edge of the Amery ice shelf was 80 km closer to the coast than it is today, as documented by Hemer & Harris (2003) in Geology. With a little interest in climate science, things suddenly appear much better.
Uh oh: Study says ‘collapsing’ Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica melting from geothermal heat, not ‘climate change’ effects | Watts Up With That? Remember the wailing from Suzanne Goldenberg over the “collapse” of the Thwaites glacier blaming man-made CO2 effects and the smackdown given to the claim on WUWT? Well, never mind. From the University of Texas at Austin and the “you can stop your wailing now” department, comes this really, really, inconvenient truth. Researchers find major West Antarctic glacier melting from geothermal sources AUSTIN, Texas — Thwaites Glacier, the large, rapidly changing outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is not only being eroded by the ocean, it’s being melted from below by geothermal heat, researchers at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin (UTIG) report in the current edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The findings significantly change the understanding of conditions beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet where accurate information has previously been unobtainable.
The presence of water and heat present researchers with significant challenges. Researcher ‘has a problem’ with attributing West Antarctic Ice Sheet ‘collapse’ to human activity | Watts Up With That? From NASA JPL and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, something that maybe journo-hacktivist Susanne Goldenberg should pay attention to before she writes another screed. Reports that a portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has begun to irretrievably collapse, threatening a 4-foot rise in sea levels over the next couple of centuries, surged through the news media last week. But many are asking if even this dramatic news will alter the policy conversation over what to do about climate change. Glaciers like the ones that were the focus of two new studies move at, well, a glacial pace. Researchers are used to contemplating changes that happen over many thousands of years.
This time, however, we’re talking hundreds of years, perhaps — something that can be understood in comparison to recent history, a timescale of several human generations. “We’re still not saying things are going to happen this year or next year. The glaciers studied by Rignot’s research team. The two papers in question: Trends of air temperature of the Antarctic during the period 1958–2000. Antarctica Record High Temp Of 19.8°C In Fact Set 35 Years Ago – When CO2 Was Low. By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt On March 1st Arizona State University reported on Antarctica’s record high temperature. Surprisingly the record was set not this year, or even this decade, rather it was set in the year 1982: World Meteorological Organization verifies highest temperatures for Antarctic region ASU climate expert, WMO rapporteur talks about importance of such verificationThe World Meteorological Organization announced Wednesday new verified, record high temperatures in Antarctica, an area once described as “the last place on Earth.”
The temperatures range from the high 60s (in Fahrenheit) to the high teens, depending on the location they were recorded in Antarctica. ============================== PS: Happy Easter everybody! A “New” Theory About the Formation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet | Watts Up With That? Increasing Antarctic Ice A Worry For Research Stations | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. Antarctic Peninsula Stopped Warming 30 Years Ago | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT.
Solar Activity Continues Near 200-Year Low. And Antarctic Sea Ice Drop Caused By Natural Factors. 'Remarkable year': What's behind the record low sea ice in Antarctica. Remember that claim from NSIDC and Walt Meier that the Antarctic ice expansion was due to a ‘processing error’? …never mind | Watts Up With That? Another Antarctic sea ice record set – but excuses abound | Watts Up With That? IPCC gate Du Jour – Antarctic Sea Ice Increase Underestimated by 50% | Watts Up With That? Manufactured PANIC: projected Antarctic ice shelf melting “may surpass intensities associated with ice shelf collapse” | Watts Up With That?
Claim: New Antarctic sea-ice extent due to wind and ‘atmospheric warming’ – what warming? | Watts Up With That? Antarctic Sea Ice Retreats Due To Wind Patterns | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. Bipolar disorder – as in the Arctic, the Antarctic sea ice extent is affected by wind, unless of course it’s ‘climate change’ | Watts Up With That?
Those Stubborn Facts: 35-Year Cooling of South Pole Confirmed By NASA - Antarctica Ice Sheets Safe. Antarctic Peninsula Has Been Cooling For Almost 20 Years, Scientists Confirm | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. Scott and Shackleton logbooks prove Antarctic sea ice is not shrinking 100 years after expeditions | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses. Glaciers In Antarctica Advanced During Little Ice Age | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. The Velocities of Tributary Glaciers to Antarctica's Amery Ice Shelf. An Inconvenient Truth: Few Signs Of Global Warming In Antarctica | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. Low Pressure System Responsible For Lower Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Last Month | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT.
Antarctic Sea Ice Retreats Due To Wind Patterns | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. World’s largest canyon could be hidden under Antarctic ice sheet | Watts Up With That? Antarctic Sea Ice Trends in a Supposedly Global Warming World. The Mass Balance of Antarctica's Dronning Maud Land Ice Sheet. A Review of the Record 2013 Southern Hemispheric Sea-Ice Extent. During last warming period, Antarctica heated up 2 to 3 times more than planet average | Scienmag: Latest Science and Health News. New Paper Debunks Ad Hoc ‘Explanation’ That Antarctic Sea Ice Has Been Growing Since ’80s Due To Human Activity.
What Emily Shuckburgh Forgot To Tell You | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT. ANTARCTIC KRILL DECLINE: Industrial fishing or Climate Change? - Principia Scientific International. Shivering Britain: Little Ice Age could be on its way.