Watching the Watchdogs: 10 Years of the IEA World Energy Outlook. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is the energy watchdog of the industrial world.
The developed nations of the world were caught off guard by the oil crisis of 1973. They then realized energy resources are so fundamental to all of civilization, and recognized how vulnerable we are to supply disruptions. Forty years ago in 1974, the International Energy Agency was formed, tasked with keeping an eye on these precious resources, and providing policy makers around the world with information to make better informed planning decisions.
The primary deliverable from the IEA is the massive World Energy Outlook (WEO) report that is released annually in November. Concerned about peak oil, I began reading the Executive Summary to this report 10 years ago. The short version is this: The IEA World Energy Outlook has gradually moved from rosy to pessimistic reports over the last ten years, or what Stuart Staniford called “increasingly reality-based.” Prior to 2005: Watchdog Fail A Cry for Help. 5 key messages from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2014. Current events risk distracting governments “from recognising and tackling the longer-term signs of stress that are emerging in the energy system” says the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2014 unveiled on 12 November in London.
Just like a year ago, it warns that long-term oil supplies are far from secure, with the Middle East re-establishing itself as the main supplier in the long-term. Moreover, while low-carbon sources (renewables and nuclear) may provide a quarter of global energy supplies by 2040, the world is still set for a 3.6 degree temperature rise. Les modèles économico-climatiques, The Economist, 5 octobre 2013. Retrouvez l'article orginal de The Economist, en anglais, à l'adresse suivante:
Untitled. La prospective : une pratique à redécouvrir. Untitled.
Les verrous de la relocalisation de l'énergie. Alors que se prépare le projet de loi sur la transition énergétique des territoires, le Réseau action climat publie une étude qui souligne que les régions et les communes manquent de leviers pour lancer des politiques énergétiques plus proches des citoyens.
La tradition centralisée de la France veut qu'elle ait confié à ses grands opérateurs industriels la mission d'électrifier et de chauffer la France. Ce grand chantier national date de 1946, où, au seuil des Trente Glorieuses, le Général de Gaulle procédait à une série de nationalisations emblématiques. REMAP 2030 working paper.pdf (Objet application/pdf)
Issues In Science And Technology, Fall 2012, Back to Basics on Energy Policy. Back to Basics on Energy Policy For the past 40 years, political leaders have promised that government can plan and engineer a fundamental transformation of our energy industry They were wrong.
In June 1973, President Richard Nixon addressed the emerging energy crisis, saying that “the answer to our long-term needs lies in developing new forms of energy.” He asked Congress for a five-year, $10 billion budget to “ensure the development of technologies vital to meeting our future energy needs.” With this speech, the federal government set out to engineer a fundamental transformation of our energy supply. All seven subsequent presidents have endorsed Nixon’s goal, and during the past 40 years, the federal government has spent about $150 billion (in 2012 dollars) on energy R&D, offered $35 billion in loan guarantees, and imposed numerous expensive energy mandates in an effort to develop new energy sources.
A rocky road Civilian nuclear power made some real progress, but only for a while. Slow Growth Ahead—with Unexpected Flares of Activity. What does the Energy Bill mean for UK generation investment? The UK government published its Energy Bill last Thursday after releasing most of the headline measures the previous week.
The Bill represents a compromise outcome after a protracted battle between the Conservative led Treasury and the Liberal Democrat led Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). This conflict, combined with ongoing uncertainty around a set of somewhat complex and inconsistent market intervention measures, has resulted in substantial damage to investor confidence. So now the Bill has finally been submitted to Parliament, what does it mean for generation investment? Low carbon generation investment The government to its credit appears to have understood that delivering meaningful volumes of low carbon generation investment will require clear guidelines on financial support.
Guidance on financial support out to 2020 is a step forward for wind and biomass investors. Several weeks ago we published our projections of potential renewable build levels. E201212012-01e_300dpi.jpg (Image JPEG, 2126x1535 pixels) - Redimensionnée (45%) Dp1258.pdf (Objet application/pdf) Financialisation in oil markets: Lessons for policy. In the last decade, purely financial players with no interest in the physical commodity, such as hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies and retail investors, have become more prominent in oil futures and derivatives markets.
In parallel, there has been an explosion in the variety of instruments that permit speculation in oil, such as futures, options, index funds, and exchange-traded funds. This massive expansion of the financial layer of oil has been called the financialisation of the oil markets. Has this affected the price of oil? And does it matter? Figure 1 plots one measure of financialisation. Figure 1 Net non-commercial long positions and the oil price Notes: Dark line indicates the ten-month moving average. Motivated by correspondences of this type, some have concluded that greater financial participation has changed oil-price behaviour (Masters 2008). The first conceptual hurdle to overcome is to define what is meant by speculation and financialisation. Pour un Commissariat général à la stratégie et à la prospective.
Energy transition in germany / Energie wende. Organisation des Marchés de l'életricité - Electricity markets. Invest But Reform: Smarter Finance for Cleaner Energy: Open Up Master Limited Partnerships and Real Estate Investment Trusts to Renewable Energy Investment. By: Felix Mormann and Dan Reicher Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)—both well-established investment structures—should be opened up to renewable energy investment.
MLPs and, more recently, REITs have a proven track record for promoting oil, gas, and other traditional energy sources. When extended to renewable energy projects these tools will help promote growth, move renewables closer to subsidy independence, and vastly broaden the base of investors in America’s energy economy. Les Etats-Unis, 1er producteur mondial de pétrole en 2017 ? Le potentiel de développement des huiles de schiste apparaît incertain.
La production américaine de brut surpassera celle de l'Arabie Saoudite en 2017, annonce l'Agence internationale de l'énergie (AIE) dans son rapport annuel, rendu public le 12 novembre. Grâce au boom des huiles de schiste, l'industrie américaine d'extraction du brut serait en passe de redevenir la première du monde. La résurgence de la production des Etats-Unis, amorcée en 2007, permettrait à Uncle Sam de réinvestir son trône de roi du pétrole, perdu au profit de l'Arabie Saoudite après l'amorce du déclin de la production américaine en 1971. A condition que cette résurgence perdure.
Michael_Finger_2009.pdf (Objet application/pdf) Quel rôle pour les scénarios Facteur 4 dans la construction de la décision publique ? "La croissance mondiale va s'arrêter". Peak oil. Scénario UE 2020 - 2050. Autres scenarii prospectifs.