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Article Five fallout: What will happen to NATO if the US leaves? — Quartz. Even before German chancellor Angela Merkel made her Munich beer hall speech on May 28—calling for Europe to “take our fate into our own hands”—the previous week’s NATO summit had made it clear that the old continent was unhealthily dependent on its American ally.

Article Five fallout: What will happen to NATO if the US leaves? — Quartz

Besides his litany of gaffes in Brussels (calling Germans “very bad,” giving Montenegro’s prime minister a shove, and trying to rip the French president’s arm off), US president Donald Trump delivered a real blow to Europe’s safety by declining to reaffirm Article Five. The cornerstone of the NATO alliance, Article Five decrees that “an attack against one ally is considered an attack against all.” Importantly, the implied promise of Article Five—that America would come to Europe’s aid in case of attack—had reassured small NATO members such as Estonia and Lithuania that Russia wouldn’t try invading them after it annexed Crimea in 2014. That’s not an easy task, though. Don’t bother attempting a European army. Uk.businessinsider. Public domain Since the Cold War, the US and Russia have drawn up plans on how to best wage nuclear war against each other — but while large population centers with huge cultural impact may seem like obvious choices, a smarter nuclear attack would focus on countering the enemy's nuclear forces.

uk.businessinsider

So while people in New York City or Los Angeles may see themselves as being in the center of the world, in terms of nuclear-target priorities, they're not as important as places in states like North Dakota or Montana. Stephen Schwartz, the author of "Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940," says that after the Cold War, the US and Russia shifted from targeting each other's most populous cities to targeting each other's nuclear stockpiles. This map shows the essential points Russia would have to attack to wipe out the US's nuclear forces, according to Schwartz: Skye Gould/Business Insider Dangerous radioactive fallout zones shrink rapidly after a nuclear explosion.

Moscow Challenges The Monroe Doctrine, Russia’s Military Facilities in Latin America. One of the dogmas of US foreign policy is the so-called Monroe Doctrine dating back to, surprisingly enough, President James Monroe who in 1823 said, in an address before US Congress, that outside powers’ efforts to colonize or exploit Latin American countries would be viewed as acts of aggression by the United States.

Moscow Challenges The Monroe Doctrine, Russia’s Military Facilities in Latin America

The sentence above pretty much encapsulates the average American’s understanding of the doctrine. What is left unsaid is that the doctrine has no legal standing. It is not an international treaty or agreement, and the US Congress has not granted the Presidency a blanket authority to go to war against any external power encroaching upon the US “exclusive preserve.” How Russia Is Preparing For WWIII. Authored by The Saker, I have recently posted a piece in which I tried to debunk a few popular myths about modern warfare.

How Russia Is Preparing For WWIII

Judging by many comments which I received in response to this post, I have to say that the myths in question are still alive and well and that I clearly failed to convince many readers. What I propose to do today, is to look at what Russia is really doing in response to the growing threat from the West. But first, I have to set the context or, more accurately, re-set the context in which Russia is operating. GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK. Tina Fordham, Citi's Global Chief Political Analyst, has already warned that the latest events may mark a turning point in the political landscape as rising geopolitical tensions and shifting socio-political trends converge in an increasingly interconnected world.

GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK

In this publication, Tina and co-author Jan Techau, Director of European think tank Carnegie Europe, explain how weakened global elites and fast evolving social trends have created an increasingly unstable political environment that threatens to bring unprecedented commercial challenges on a global scale. There is an increasing likelihood that new transmission mechanisms are evolving that could lead to political risk having an impact on economic forecasting models, changing the way that companies do business and driving a secular, or even structural, increase in risk premia in financial markets. One of the main factors insulating markets from geopolitical risk has been abundant liquidity provision by central banks.

Playing Chess With Putin. Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com, “What’s it like playing chess with Obama?”

Playing Chess With Putin

Asks a top aid of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Putin replies, “It’s like playing chess with a pigeon. First it knocks over all the pieces, then it shits on the board, and finally it struts around like it won.” Now, Putin hasn’t actually said this on record. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he really did say it. The Russia/Turkey Clash———Some Relevant History. Turn to page 214 in the book “War-making for Dummies.”

The Russia/Turkey Clash———Some Relevant History

You will find: “plan air operations right on your neighbor’s border, zig in and zag out, make rude gestures at enemy pilots, and shoot them down if you can.” On Tuesday this week, the inevitable air clash occurred on the Syrian-Turkish border west of Aleppo. From what we know so far, two Russian SU-24 bombers that had been pounding anti-Damascus forces on the border briefly intruded on Turkish airspace for all of 17 seconds.

Turkish F-16 fighters, clearly pre-positioned in the area, pounced on the Russians and downed one Sukhoi with an air-to-air missiles. One of the Russian pilots was killed – probably by pro-Turkish Syrian tribesmen while parachuting to earth. Russia “Violated” Turkish Airspace Because Turkey “Moved” Its Border. This article originally published on October 7, 2015 is of utmost relevance in understanding the action taken by Turkey to down a Russian jet fighter over Syria airspace.

Russia “Violated” Turkish Airspace Because Turkey “Moved” Its Border

(GR. Editor. M. Ch.) Creative Destruction: The Rice-Olmert-Ledeen Project for a “New Middle East” By Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya. The following article was first published in 2006, it is being reprinted for its relevance today to what is still going on in the Middle East.

Creative Destruction: The Rice-Olmert-Ledeen Project for a “New Middle East” By Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya

The following path-breaking analysis was first published by Global Research in November of 2006 “Hegemony is as old as Mankind…” -Zbigniew Brzezinski, former U.S. National Security Advisor The term “New Middle East” was introduced to the world in June 2006 in Tel Aviv by U.S. The Geopolitics of the Syrian Civil War. By Reva Bhalla Editor's Note: With the war in Syria showing no signs of abating, we republish our Jan. 21, 2014, weekly explaining the complex geopolitics of the conflict.

The Geopolitics of the Syrian Civil War

International diplomats will gather Jan. 22 in the Swiss town of Montreux to hammer out a settlement designed to end Syria's three-year civil war. The Eurasian Big Bang: How China & Russia Are Running Rings Around Washington. Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted at TomDispatch.com, Let’s start with the geopolitical Big Bang you know nothing about, the one that occurred just two weeks ago. Here are its results: from now on, any possible future attack on Iran threatened by the Pentagon (in conjunction with NATO) would essentially be an assault on the planning of an interlocking set of organizations -- the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), the EEU (Eurasian Economic Union), the AIIB (the new Chinese-founded Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), and the NDB (the BRICS' New Development Bank) -- whose acronyms you’re unlikely to recognize either.

Still, they represent an emerging new order in Eurasia. Tehran, Beijing, Moscow, Islamabad, and New Delhi have been actively establishing interlocking security guarantees. Why the Nuclear Deal is Good for China. The recent nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 countries (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) will have major implications for security in the Middle East. But the impact of the deal will be much wider. Just how wide was demonstrated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who, even before the official press conference announcing that the agreement had been concluded, declared that the deal obviated any need for NATO missile defenses in Europe, which have long been a point of contention between the United States and Russia.

The deal will also likely lead to billions of dollars of investment by India in Iran’s southern port of Chabahar, long-awaited progress on a gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan, and perhaps even the provision of Iranian gas to a Europe eager to reduce its energy dependence on Russia. Why Russia’s security problems can’t be solved in Ukraine. From the outset of the current crisis in Ukraine, Moscow’s policies have been driven primarily by geopolitical considerations, not by developments inside Ukraine itself. Despite its rhetoric, the Kremlin cares little if at all about the design of Ukrainian federalism, the rights of Russian speakers, or alleged “fascists” in Kyiv, except insofar as they affect Ukraine’s external orientation and Russia’s geopolitical interests.

Ukraine was, and doubtless to a certain extent still is, a central element in the Kremlin’s ambitions to establish a Russian-dominated “Eurasian” pole in what it sees as an increasingly multi-polar world. But more importantly, it has been and remains critical to the Kremlin’s goal of keeping the United States, the European Union, and above all NATO from becoming politically, economically, and militarily preeminent in post-Soviet space. My take on this key question at the moment is as follows.

Hunker Down. U.S., Russia: The Case for Bilateral Talks. Phone calls between relatively low-level diplomats are normally not newsworthy. World War II and the Origins of American Unease. By George Friedman We are at the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. That victory did not usher in an era of universal peace. Rather, it introduced a new constellation of powers and a complex balance among them. Europe's great powers and empires declined, and the United States and the Soviet Union replaced them, performing an old dance to new musical instruments.

What Borders Mean to Europe. "Greeks are not real Greeks" Tagged: "Greeks are not real Greeks", Battle of Navarino, CDU, DNa, Fallmerayer, Greece, Greece destroys Europe, Nazi Propaganda, racism, WELT. Tartus, the Mother of Martyrs. The Philippines to the United States: We Want You Back. Великий разворот: зачем Обама дразнит Китай? Министр обороны США Эштон Картер хочет рискнуть, вступив в войну с Китаем, для защиты «свободы навигации» в Южно-Китайском море.

Выступая в Гонолулу в среду, Картер озвучил «наиболее серьёзное» предупреждение, из всех, прозвучавших до этого, требуя «полного и немедленного прекращения освоения земель» Китаем в районе оспариваемых островов Спратли. Картер сказал: «Давайте раз и навсегда проясним: Соединённые Штаты Америки будут осуществлять полёты, навигацию и работать в любой точке мира, где это позволено международным правом, как мы делаем это сейчас.

" Why Libya Matters. Libya is quietly slipping into chaos while the more established debacles of Iraq and Syria dominate in Western headlines and corridors of power. The Problems Foreign Powers Find in the Balkans. Summary. The Adults Are Back——Kerry Throws In The Towel On Ukraine. By Patrick L. A diplomatic victory, and affirmation, for Putin; MOSCOW — For Russia, victory came three days after Victory Day, in the form of Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit this week to the Black Sea resort city of Sochi. Why Shiite Expansion Will Be Short-Lived. Forecast. The Failures of Putin’s Ukraine Strategy.

Iran has a key advantage over Sunni states in the Middle East. Iran has a key advantage over Sunni states in the Middle East. The ISIL is in Ukraine: America’s “Agents of Chaos” Unleashed in Eurasia. Ridiculous Defined: US Sends 300 Troops to Ukraine. The May 2nd Odessa Massacre: Why Obama’s Coup-Regime Still Runs Ukraine. China-Russia alliance challenges U.S., Western-dominated world order. Pushing Back Against a Chinese Lake in the South China Sea. Iraq poised to deploy Iran-backed Shi'ite militia in offensive in West. Syria’s Revitalized Rebels Make Big Gains in Assad’s Heartland. China and Russia vs. America: Great-Power Revisionism Is Back. Crisis, what crisis? -The al-Qaeda takeover of Syria. U.S. Assumes Arctic Council Leadership Amid Increasing Tension in the Far-North.

The real threat to Europe lies in Ukraine rather than Greece. Why Is Washington Supporting Saudi Arabia’s Massacre In Yemen? Yemen strikes show Saudi 'mental imbalance': Iranian President - World. China's Road Rules. Beijing Looks West Towards Eurasian Integration. China is investing $46 billion to carve out a route through one of the world’s most dangerous regions. Iran's Game in Yemen. The Ultimate Game of Chicken: The West vs. Russia. Coming to Terms With the American Empire. Science and Geopolitics Converging in the Troubled Waters of the South China Sea. 5 signs that the Ukrainian civil war will turn into a 'stable frozen conflict' Could Greece Pivot To Russia And China? China tells US to 'speak and act with caution' in South China Sea island dispute.

Alexis Tsipras on Twitter: "#Greece is a sovereign state w/right to pursue nuanced foreign policy in line w/geopolitical role as European Mediterranean & Balkan country" A Showdown in Moscow’s Power Elite. Most of Islamic State’s leaders were officers in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Russia Nervously Eyes the U.S.-Iran Deal. The Dangerous, Delicate Saudi-Pakistan Alliance. Geopolitics of Russia (university textbook 2012) Reflections on the Geopolitical Diary. Hypocrisy hyperbole: Russian 'aggression' in Ukraine vs. Saudi 'defense' in Yemen. The Iran "Talks" - Just Another US vs Russia (And China) Power Game. Артём Гришанов. Не надо злить Русского медведя! Europe ditches Ukraine as it seeks to save Greece. Saudi Arabia's Strategy Against the Houthi in Yemen.

Make No Mistake — the United States Is at War in Yemen. Were Jews in Ukraine Really Just Asked to Register Their Identities? Here's the Real Story - Mic. Containing Iran: the Sunnis strike back. The U.S. Is Providing Air Cover for Ethnic Cleansing in Iraq. Why Bombing This Tiny Oil Producer Is Roiling the Energy Market. The New Great Game: Why Ukraine Matters to So Many Other Nations. U.S.-v.-Russia: Even Stephen Cohen Is Starting to Speak the Truth Washington's Blog. Fear and Loathing in Washington, Death and Destruction in Ukraine. Russian survival tips for collapse and anarchy in Ukraine - Fort Russ. Russian neofascists recruit Belarusians to fight for separatists in Ukraine. Regime Change: America's Failing Weapon Of International Deception. Will Iran and the West get a Nowruz Nuclear Deal? Ukraine's Oligarchs Are at War (Again) The Far Right Politics of the Ukrainian Diaspora - The text is in the comment.

On February 23, 2014, at the peak of the Maidan revolution, and the second day after Yanukovych fled the country, the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill to repeal the 2012 law, making Ukrainian the only official language. The repeal was again political. It sought to unite opposition forces in a country that had dissolved into chaos following Yanukovich’s escape. However, that step provoked a strong reaction in Crimea and in some regions of southern and eastern Ukraine and gave those regions yet another reason to feel marginalized by the new government. Right-wing Ukrainians were elated by the move. The Azov Battalion, one of the country’s better known ultranationalist organizations, is known for its intolerance. One of its members was quoted by The Telegraph saying, “Personally, I’m a Nazi.” Andreas Umland, a German-born senior research fellow at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kiev, stated in an interview with Hromadske TV, the Ukrainian Internet television station, “Azov is peculiar because of the biological racism of some of its leaders.” The group has even adopted a modified version of the Wolfsangel symbol, which was used by some Nazi units during World War II. Many of the Battalion’s members (described as “glorious” by Svoboda) are from Belarus, Canada, France, Italy, Slovenia, and Sweden, and are reported to be funded with the help of the Ukrainian diaspora. The Ukrainian diaspora has, of course, offered tremendous support for the democratic movement in Ukraine: members have organized humanitarian relief programs, placed wounded Ukrainian soldiers in American hospitals, hosted displaced refugees in their homes, and lobbied U.S. President Barack Obama for military assistance to Ukraine, among a host of other activities. Even the 2014 Miss Ukrainian Diaspora beauty pageant, held in Chicago, issued, as its grand prize, a certificate for purchasing body armor for Ukrainian soldiers. Although the diaspora support for the conflict in Ukraine is commendable, its continued focus on the issue of language is not. Ukraine needs to mend the divides between its various regions and promote a multiethnic and multilingual society. To further that goal, the diaspora should tone down its campaign to protect the Ukrainian language as well as its strong anti-Russian opinions. Ukrainians are already bombarded by the propaganda of two extreme ideologies: one from right-wing Ukrainian nationalists and the other from the Kremlin. This fire doesn’t need more fuel from the diaspora. – andreylukashov

Kiev’s ‘Bait-And-Switch Means Renewed Civil War In Ukraine On US And Europe’s Nickel. What Happens Next In Russia - A 6-Step Recipe For Western Disaster. Meet the Americans Who Put Together the Coup in Kiev. Greece ready to play the Russian card. Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. Ukraine Isn’t Divided Yet. Let’s Keep It That Way. Why Germany can't ignore Russia - Woodford Investment Management LLP. Putin Doesn't Want A Frozen Conflict In Ukraine. Greece Begins The Great Pivot Toward Russia. Against the tide: The fragmentation of Europe. Putin’s Next Prize in Eastern Ukraine. How Vladimir Putin Rules. What Putin Learned From Reagan. Putin’s Countermove. Wake Up, Europe by George Soros. This Is How Putin's Advisor Sees The Ukraine Crisis Playing Out. Ukraine, A Geopolitical Choke Point Washington's Blog.

Ukraine – A Case for Chinese Involvement. Ukraine situation opportunity for U.S. energy producers. Here's why Putin can't let go of South and East Ukraine. Putin's war machine relies on a critical Ukrainian port outside Crimea. Greece ready to play the Russian card. Russia and Ukraine: Can we stomach more lies from the US media and more hubris from US foreign policy?

Why the ‘Geo’ in Geopolitics Still Matters - Geopoliticalmonitor.com.