Anatomy of a scenario. From WikiEducator Scenarios deal with a complex set of interrelated factors which typically play out over a considerable period of time. Approaches to scenario planning Figure 1: Visualising inductive and deductive scenarios. There are two broad approaches used for scenario planning: Inductive scenarios emerge from in depth discussions and detailed explorations and interrogations of the drivers of change and identifiable trends.
Inductive scenarios are less structured and rely on group discussions until consensus is reached. Deductive scenarios impose a framework for developing the scenario story lines and are usually based on two or more uncertainties to structure the scenario worlds. In this workshop the activities are designed for the development of deductive scenarios which will enable individual participants to generate their own scenarios in the absence of the opportunity for in depth team discussions. Components of a deductive scenario Figure 2: Components of a deductive scenario. Scenario planning | Business21C. Introduction to Scenario Planning Video. 2016 scenario guide to effective tertiary education in New Zealand. This web-resource provides an interactive system-wide view of what tertiary education might look like in New Zealand in 2016.
Tertiary education managers and leaders can use these scenarios to plan future organisational and programme development. The scenarios Click on the image to explore the 4 scenarios using the project's web resourceFour scenarios for the future provision of tertiary education were developed through a process of interviewing leaders in tertiary education, using the JISC scenario building strategies, and input from the broader tertiary education sector. Use the web-resource to explore each scenario.
From the most conservative to the most radical. The scenarios are: Articulation of courses within and across programmes is depicted by the dotted lines between the geometric shapes. Click on the image to download the Senior managers resource (2.13mb PDF) The dotted lines around the geometric shapes indicate the ease of flow into and out of tertiary education. Project Outputs. Idea: Scenario planning. FOR-LEARN. A is a "story" illustrating visions of possible future or aspects of possible future. It is perhaps the most emblematic Foresight or future studies method.
Scenarios are not predictions about the future but rather similar to simulations of some possible futures. They are used both as an exploratory method or a tool for decision-making, mainly to highlight the discontinuities from the present and to reveal the choices available and their potential consequences . Historical notes The term scenario originates in the dramatic arts. The dictionary offers three definitions: An outline of the plot of the dramatic work giving particulars of the scenes, characters, etc The outline or sometimes the complete script of a motion picture or a shooting script; An imagined sequence of events, especially any of several detailed plans or possibilities.
The scenario method is probably one of the main concepts and most widely used methods in Foresight. Scenarios were first used by corporations. . . 1. 2. 3. Scenario planning. Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers.
The games combine known facts about the future, such as demographics, geography, military, political, industrial information, and mineral reserves, with key driving forces identified by considering social, technical, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP) trends. In business applications, the emphasis on gaming the behavior of opponents was reduced (shifting more toward a game against nature). Scenario planning may involve aspects of systems thinking, specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometime surprising futures (due to non-linear feedback loops). What is scenario planning. Scenario Planning - Case04.pdf.