Economics | Business Studies | Politics | Sociology | History | Law | Marketing | Accounting | Business Strategy. Sustained Budget Deficits: Longer-Run U.S. Economic Performance and the Risk of Financial and Fiscal Disarray. AEA-NAEFA Joint Session, Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meetings, The Andrew Brimmer Policy Forum, ""National Economic and Financial Policies for Growth and Stability"" By: Allen Sinai, Peter R. Orszag and Robert E. Rubin The U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path. In the absence of significant policy changes, federal government deficits are expected to total around $5 trillion over the next decade.
Such deficits will cause U.S. government debt, relative to GDP, to rise significantly. Thereafter, as the baby boomers increasingly reach retirement age and claim Social Security and Medicare benefits, government deficits and debt are likely to grow even more sharply. Conventional analyses of sustained budget deficits demonstrate the negative effects of deficits on long-term economic growth.
The adverse consequences of sustained large budget deficits may well be far larger and occur more suddenly than traditional analysis suggests, however.
Certificate in Economic Measurement 2011. Economic Measurement Seminar Links to presentations Now in its 8th year, The NABE Foundation's Economic Measurement Seminar (formerly, the Professional Development Seminar) is a convenient, cost-effective program designed to strengthen your knowledge of economic statistics and analytical techniques, enhancing your ability to add value in your workplace.
Each session at the EMS pairs data producers with prominent data users to provide you with an insightful view of how data are compiled and how they are used by leading analysts. EMS attendees earn the Certificate in Economic Measurement and enjoy numerous opportunities to network with instructors and colleagues. The Economic Measurement Seminar features a dual-track format and includes sessions on: GDP and the National Accounts Employment Inflation Federal Reserve Beige Book The American Community Survey The Federal Reserve's balance sheet Flow of Funds and many others!
New to the EMS? EMS veteran? Instructors include: Angela Delano , U.S. Linda A. Economic Freedom of the World project | www.freetheworld.com. Introduction to Economic Analysis. Digest OnLine. The National Bureau of Economic Research. IDEAS: Economics and Finance Research.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics. Mundell–Fleming model. Economic model The Mundell–Fleming model, also known as the IS-LM-BoP model (or IS-LM-BP model), is an economic model first set forth (independently) by Robert Mundell and Marcus Fleming.[1][2] The model is an extension of the IS–LM model. Whereas the traditional IS-LM model deals with economy under autarky (or a closed economy), the Mundell–Fleming model describes a small open economy. The Mundell–Fleming model portrays the short-run relationship between an economy's nominal exchange rate, interest rate, and output (in contrast to the closed-economy IS-LM model, which focuses only on the relationship between the interest rate and output). The Mundell–Fleming model has been used to argue [3] that an economy cannot simultaneously maintain a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement, and an independent monetary policy.
An economy can only maintain two of the three at the same time. Basic set-up[edit] Assumptions[edit] Basic assumptions of the model are as follows:[1] Variables[edit] where. Deflation. In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services.[1] Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0% (a negative inflation rate). This should not be confused with disinflation, a slow-down in the inflation rate (i.e., when inflation declines to lower levels).[2] Inflation reduces the real value of money over time; conversely, deflation increases the real value of money – the currency of a national or regional economy.
This allows one to buy more goods with the same amount of money over time. Causes and corresponding types[edit] In monetarist theory, deflation must be associated with either a reduction in the money supply, a reduction in the velocity of money or an increase in the number of transactions. But any of these may occur separately without deflation.
It may be attributed to a dramatic contraction of the money supply, or to adherence to a gold standard or other external monetary base requirement. Demand-side causes are: Effects[edit] IS/LM model. The IS curve moves to the right, causing higher interest rates (i) and expansion in the "real" economy (real GDP, or Y). The model was developed by John Hicks in 1937,[4] and later extended by Alvin Hansen,[5] as a mathematical representation of Keynesian macroeconomic theory. Between the 1940s and mid-1970s, it was the leading framework of macroeconomic analysis.[6] While it has been largely absent from macroeconomic research ever since, it is still the backbone of many introductory macroeconomics textbooks.[7] History[edit] The IS/LM model was born at the econometric conference held in Oxford during September, 1936.
Roy Harrod, John R. Hicks, and James Meade all presented papers describing mathematical models attempting to summarize John Maynard Keynes' General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.[4][8] Hicks, who had seen a draft of Harrod's paper, invented the IS/LM model (originally using the abbreviation "LL", not "LM").
He later presented it in "Mr. Formation[edit] Why do good institutions ever decline? Caucus Night Colorado. Tonight is Caucus night in Colorado. Thousands of political junkies and activists will turn out to elect delegates to represent candidates at the party state assemblies in May. Key races to watch include the Democratic and Republican U.S. Senate contests. Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet faces a primary challenge from popular former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. GOP front-runner Jane Norton is battling to put distance between herself and Weld County D.A. GOP candidate for governor Scott McInnis has struggled for months to win solid grassroots activist support. In the swing Fourth Congressional district, four Republicans have been jockeying for the chance to run against Democratic Rep.
Apart from the informal straw polls taken at candidate rallies over the past half year, the caucuses will be the first real test of candidate electoral strength. In 2008, roughly 120,000 Democrats and 70,000 Republicans turned out to caucus. Join Our Live Colorado Caucus Coverage How to contribute. Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse (9781596985872): Thomas E. Woods Jr., Ron Paul. Hedonic regression. An attribute vector, which may be a dummy or panel variable, is assigned to each characteristic or group of characteristics. Hedonic models can accommodate non-linearity, variable interaction, or other complex valuation situations. Hedonic models are commonly used in real estate appraisal, real estate economics and Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculations. In CPI calculations hedonic regression is used to control the effect of changes in product quality.
Price changes that are due to substitution effects are subject to hedonic quality adjustments. Hedonic pricing method[edit] Certain environmental services often influence the market prices. This method finds its application to reveal the effect of environmental attributes in changes in the local real estate pricing. The overall quality of the environment in terms of air pollution, water pollution and noiseEnvironmental amenities which include aesthetic sights and closeness to recreational sites such as parks, beaches, etc. Advantages[edit] Taking On 'Rational Man' - Research. World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update -- Restoring Confidence with.
Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections(Percent change, unless otherwise noted) Concern over sovereign risk spilled over to banking sectors in Europe. Funding pressure reemerged and spread through interbank markets, fed also by uncertainty about policy responses. At the same time, questions about sustainability of the strength of the global recovery surfaced. As risk appetite waned and markets scaled back expectations for future growth, assets in other regions, including emerging markets, also experienced substantial sell-offs.
In principle, the renewed financial turbulence could spill over to the real economy through several channels, involving changes in domestic and external demand and in relative exchange rates. Global recovery will continue, despite more financial turbulence At this juncture, the potential dampening effect on growth of recent financial stress is highly uncertain. Inflation to remain mostly subdued Downside risks to global growth are much greater. Center For Continuing Study of the California Economy. Forum - CREOpoint.
Happiness economics. Subject classifications[edit] The subject may be categorized in various ways, depending on specificity, intersection, and cross-classification. For example, within the Journal of Economic Literature classification codes, it has been categorized under: Welfare economics at JEL: D63 – Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement[1]Health, education, and welfare at JEL: I31 – General Welfare; Basic needs; Living standards; Quality of life; Happiness[3]Demographic economics at JEL:J18 – Public Policy.[4] Metrology[edit] Given its very nature, reported happiness is subjective.[5] It is difficult to compare one person’s happiness with another's.[1] It can be especially difficult to compare happiness across cultures.[1] However, many happiness economists believe they have solved this comparison problem.
Cross-sections of large data samples across nations and time demonstrate consistent patterns in the determinants of happiness.[1] .[1] In this equation at time , and Books. Michael Eysenck. Michael William Eysenck (born 8 February 1944)[1] is a British academic psychologist, and is an emeritus professor in psychology at Royal Holloway, University of London.
He also holds an appointment as Professorial Fellow at Roehampton University.[1] His research focuses on cognitive factors affecting anxiety. Eysenck has written and co-written many publications, including several textbooks. In the late 1990s, he developed the theory of the 'hedonic treadmill',[2] stating that humans are predisposed by genetics to plateau at a certain level of happiness, and that the occurrence of novel happy events merely elevates this level temporarily. He is the son of the noted psychologist Hans Jürgen Eysenck. Research interests[edit] Eysenck's research focuses mainly on cognitive factors associated with anxiety in normal and clinical populations. Specific interests: Cognitive factors in anxiety, including clinical anxiety and implications for therapy.
Career history[edit] Portrait[edit] Social comparison theory. Social comparison theory was initially proposed by social psychologist Leon Festinger in 1954.[1] Social comparison theory is centered on the belief that there is a drive within individuals to gain accurate self-evaluations. The theory explains how individuals evaluate their own opinions and abilities by comparing themselves to others in order to reduce uncertainty in these domains, and learn how to define the self. Following the initial theory, research began to focus on social comparison as a way of self-enhancement,[2][3] introducing the concepts of downward and upward comparisons and expanding the motivations of social comparisons.[4] Initial framework[edit] In the initial theory, Festinger provided nine main hypotheses. Theoretical advances[edit] Since its inception, the initial framework has undergone several advances.
Self-evaluation and self-enhancement[edit] Upward and downward social comparisons[edit] Competitiveness[edit] Social status[edit] Proximity to a standard[edit] Hedonic treadmill. The Hedonic (or Happiness) Set Point has gained interest throughout the field of positive psychology where it has been developed and revised further.[3] Given that hedonic adaptation generally demonstrates that a person's long term happiness is not significantly affected by otherwise impactful events, positive psychology has concerned itself with the discovery of things that can lead to lasting changes in happiness levels. Overview[edit] Happiness seems to be more like a thermostat, since our temperaments tend to bring us back towards a certain happiness level (a tendency influenced by carefully chosen activities and habits). Hedonic adaptation is a process or mechanism that reduces the affective impact of emotional events.
Hedonic adaptation can occur in a variety of ways. Major theoretical approaches[edit] Behavioral/psychological approach[edit] Major empirical findings[edit] Wildeman, Turney, Schnittker (2014) studied the effects of imprisonment on one’s baseline level of well-being. A survey of ecological economics.