Please read this link to learn about the author and background to these posts. It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown. As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. (as of May 3rd) So throughout most of the country we are going to add fuel to the viral fire by reopening. Where are people getting sick? We know most people get infected in their own home. Sobering right? Erin S.
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