Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) Abstract Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. 11 coronavirus pandemic charts everyone should see The outbreak of Covid-19, a coronavirus-caused illness that originated in Wuhan, China, and has since spread to most of the world, is one of the most serious public health crises in decades. It has spread far wider than Ebola did in 2014, and the World Health Organization has designated it a pandemic. Johns Hopkins’s tracker is worth bookmarking with case number counts in the US and worldwide as the crisis progresses. The situation on the ground is evolving incredibly quickly, and it’s impossible to synthesize everything we know into clean, intelligible charts. But we do know a fair bit about how bad the outbreak is, what the disease does, and what controlling and ultimately ending the outbreak will look like.
This is what it will take to get us back outside It could all be over more quickly if certain existing drugs, already known to be safe for other uses, prove effective in treating covid-19. Trials are now under way; we should know by the summer. On the flip side, it may be that only a vaccine delivers the knockout blow, and even then, we still don’t know how long one will stay effective as the virus mutates. This is why everything feels unmoored and why everybody is stressed: because we can no longer predict what will be allowed and what will not a week, a month, or 12 months hence. That means we have to prepare for a world in which there is no cure and no vaccine for a long time.
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo - Medium If you stack up the orange bars until 1/22, you get 444 cases. Now add up all the grey bars. They add up to ~12,000 cases. So when Wuhan thought it had 444 cases, it had 27 times more. Simulating COVID-19 with Agent-Based Modeling Here are some (very) early outputs from an Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 that I'm currently developing. It allows configuring a number of parameters including: population sizes (of healthy and infected people) by agedistribution of vulnerability by agelevel of social distancing in effect by ageprobabilistic variations of incubation periods and symptom durations (The current chart simply uses placeholder values for all of these factors.) The Trump Administration Needs to Ramp Up Health Care Resources to Fight Coronavirus The mayor of New York sat ashen-faced before the cameras on Thursday evening and begged for help. “We need three million N95 masks,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said. “We need 50 million surgical masks. We need 15,000 ventilators, and 25 million each of the following items of personal protective equipment...surgical gowns, coveralls, face masks.” The numbers were staggering: Nearly a 130 million pieces of medical gear for New York City alone, by early next month at the latest. If they don’t arrive, the mayor warned, it would mean needless deaths.
Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19) Currently, there is not enough evidence for or against the use of masks (medical or other) in healthy individuals in the wider community. However, WHO is actively studying the rapidly evolving science on masks and continuously updates its guidance. Medical masks are recommended primarily in health care settings, but can be considered in other circumstances (see below). Medical masks should be combined with other key infection prevention and control measures such as hand hygiene and physical distancing.
COVID-19 #CoronaVirus Infographic Datapack COVID-19 #Coronavirus latest data visualized. You are welcome to use this graphic in any way you please. » Flattening the Curve (NY Times) and interactive (Washington Post) » World Health Organisation dashboard » All the data in detail (Our World in Data) » How does Corona virus compare with flu? (NY Times) » Coronavirus is very different to Spanish flu (NY Times) » See our beautiful infographic books » Learn how to create impactful infographics & visualisations: online seminars » All our graphics The coronavirus likely can remain airborne. It doesn’t mean we’re doomed When a new virus blasts out of the animals that harbored it and into people, experts can usually say, thank goodness it’s not like measles. That virus is more contagious than any others known to science: Each case of measles causes an astronomical 12 to 18 new cases, compared to about six for polio, smallpox, and rubella. Each case of the new coronavirus is estimated to cause two to three others.
Trump’s coronavirus musings put scientists on edge Public health experts have noted the WHO’s estimate may change as more is learned about the spread of the virus; thousands of non-fatal cases likely have gone undetected. But while the death rate may dip below 3.4 percent, everything that’s known so far suggests it won’t plummet to a level that’s not alarming. And it’s already hitting some populations, like the elderly, disproportionately hard. But the president’s subsequent explanation could prove dangerous, as it contradicts officials’ attempts to keep infected people away from others. “Because a lot people will have this and it's very mild,” Trump went on, elaborating on why he thought the WHO had it wrong.