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#NoEstimatesBook and #KnowEstimating An open comment Vasco, Hi Thanks for sharing your book I’ve read Chapter 1, I’m ready for chapter 2 – your condition of supply was to provide comment – here is some. War First published Fri Feb 4, 2000; substantive revision Thu Jul 28, 2005 War should be understood as an actual, intentional and widespread armed conflict between political communities. Thus, fisticuffs between individual persons do not count as a war, nor does a gang fight, nor does a feud on the order of the Hatfields versus the McCoys. War is a phenomenon which occurs only between political communities, defined as those entities which either are states or intend to become states (in order to allow for civil war). Classical war is international war, a war between different states, like the two World Wars.

Dolphins Evolve Opposable Thumbs HONOLULU–In an announcement with grave implications for the primacy of the species of man, marine biologists at the Hawaii Oceanographic Institute reported Monday that dolphins, or family Delphinidae, have evolved opposable thumbs on their pectoral fins. One of the evolved dolphins, whose opposable thumbs have struck fear in the hearts of humankind. "I believe I speak for the entire human race when I say, 'Holy fuck,'" said Oceanographic Institute director Dr. James Aoki, noting that the dolphin has a cranial capacity 40 percent greater than that of humans. "That's it for us monkeys." Aoki strongly urged humans, especially those living near the sea, to learn to communicate using a system of clicks and whistles in a frequency range of 4 to 150 kHz.

Estimation and Steve McConnell (Again) Steve McConnell recently published 17 theses regarding estimation. Pay no attention to the fact that the last guy who posted 17 theses was a heretic. Go ahead and read his thoughts. I’ll wait. Argument from ignorance Argument from ignorance (Latin: argumentum ad ignorantiam), also known as appeal to ignorance (in which ignorance stands for "lack of evidence to the contrary"), is a fallacy in informal logic. It asserts that a proposition is true because it has not yet been proven false (or vice versa). This represents a type of false dichotomy in that it excludes a third option, which is that there is insufficient investigation and therefore insufficient information to prove the proposition satisfactorily to be either true or false. Nor does it allow the admission that the choices may in fact not be two (true or false), but may be as many as four, truefalseunknown between true or falsebeing unknowable (among the first three).[1]

They're made out of Meat, by Hugo and Nebula Winner Terry Bisson by Terry Bisson "They're made out of meat." "Meat?" "Meat. Management is Prediction Posted on July 14, 2005 Comments (10) re: post on prediction [link broken, so removed] on the Deming Electronic Network: Petter Ogland wrote: …that intelligence more or less boils down to updating a predictive model of the world. The 'Free Will' Concept Deconstructed In this blog post I’ll be analyzing the concept of ‘free will’. First of all, I want to demonstrate the meaning of this term and why free will is questionable in the first place. If we look at the dictionary definition of free will, it means: ‘The apparent human ability to make choices that are not externally determined.’ It has to be said that there is not yet any clear, definitive evidence of free will from a scientific standpoint.

Dunning–Kruger effect The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is. Psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive incapacity, on the part of those with low ability, to recognize their ineptitude and evaluate their competence accurately. Their research also suggests corollaries: high-ability individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.[1] Dunning and Kruger have postulated that the effect is the result of internal illusion in those of low ability and external misperception in those of high ability: "The miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others

Prairie Rose House: How to build a tree swing This size is great for kids but a little snug for an adult. To make the swing bigger, even a two seat-er, just be sure to brace it well and to check the maximum load capacity for all parts. Hardware: Braided nylon rope 3/8", enough to reach from limb to ground twice plus 10' (I purchased brown, designed for hunting, but plain white or yellow would be cheaper); about 10' of twine; (2) lag screw eye bolts about 4.5" in length; (2) 5/16" quick link connectors or "S" links (these will allow for easy removal and installation each winter); wood screws, 1.5" long, I used leftover decking screws designed for use with cedar. Wood: redwood or cedar are great outdoor choices. I used a scrap piece of cedar leftover from the fence project about 17" long, 1" thick and 8" wide. I also ripped a second piece into two 4" wide strips about 6" long.

Why I hate and love #noestimates I was watching a No Estimates video that someone tweeted recently and I was reminded why I hate and love No Estimates at the same time. The video in question is a No Estimates presentation by Allen Holub. You can find the video here. I’d like to review the key points of the presentation and discuss the split personality of No Estimates. 0:20 – “We need to stop doing all estimates, now” – As much as some No Estimate proponents say it isn’t about not doing estimates at all, these extreme statements arise again and again. There much be some kernel of truth that they truly believe in this statement.