CHINA
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The well-regarded and surprisingly independent Beijing-based media outlet Caijing is no more . The site is up, but the content is frozen in time, nothing having been written since early November. Happily, Caijing editor Hu Shuli has now re-appeared with Caing. And Caing has started things off where Caijing left off, drawing attention to the bubble economy China has become. Andy Xie writes today:
China's Bubble Economy -- Seeking Alpha
China growth sizzles, inflation bubbles | Reuters
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's turbo-charged growth eased just a touch in the first quarter, while its inflation jumped to a 32-month high, putting pressure on the government to do more to rein in prices and keep the economy on an even keel. China's gross domestic product increased by 9.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, down from 9.8 percent in the final three months of 2010 but ahead of an expected 9.5 percent pace. Consumer price inflation sped to 5.4 percent in the year to March, the fastest since July 2008 and topping market forecasts for a 5.2 percent increase. Taken together, the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday showed that the world's second-largest economy was still sizzling, little hindered by the central bank's half-year tightening campaign that many investors had feared would undermine growth.
Hidden Losses And Little Reform: China May Be Slowing More Than You Think
In his latest Email review, Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets discusses financial reform (actually the lack thereof in China), as well as an observation on China's Growth. Pettis writes .... Three months ago during their 2010 Q4 conference, the PBoC said that they believed that the global economic recovery would continue in 2011, although they acknowledged a great deal of uncertainty.
Global Economics - Global Macro EconoMonitor
A few months ago I discussed the failing of econophysics , and more generally, the economic paradigm that treats people like computers and views economic dynamics like physics. The natural follow up question is, “What can you say that is constructive?” The answer is an emerging approach to behavioral economics. Over the past few decades it has dawned on some researchers that we don’t make decisions the way most economists think we should. And as a result behavioral economics has become a burgeoning field of study.
Editor's Note: Anton Wahlman is a contributor for TheStreet.com . About 11 million cars are sold in the US each year. The first two practical and moderately priced plug-in electric cars -- the Chevrolet Volt ( GM ) and Nissan Leaf -- are about to be delivered to the first customers in December. Over the next 12 months (calendar year 2011), Nissan will deliver 20,000 Leafs and Chevrolet about 15,000 units in the US market.
Demand For Electric Cars Such As Nissan Leaf And Chevy Volt Could Dwarf Supply | Markets | Minyanville.com
Some selected Chinese data for September off pf Bloomberg. All the numbers are in Renminbi. M2 growth for 9 months is 8.6 trillion - I'm taking this as a proxy for credit growth in the economy and for the change in debt to GDP. In any case the annual target for bank loans alone is 7.5 trillion, which would be substantially more than nominal GDP growth. The 18% or so nominal GDP growth shows the 2.5% deposit rate to be laughable.
Is Jim Chanos Right About China? - Seeking Alpha
TOP 5 GRAPHS OF THE WEEK – THE CHINA OUTLOOK | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
By Econ Grapher This week the focus is on China, with the quarterly statistics out this week – as well as a surprise interest rate increase from the PBOC. Among the data we review in this edition is GDP growth, inflation trends, the interest rate decision, retail sales growth, and the continued rise of new lending.
A Conversation with George Soros | Angry Bear
With thanks to Felix Salmon for arranging the invitation. There’s an episode of House where he has to get rid of one of the people for his new team. By the end of the episode, the sharpest person in the group has said everything that we would have expected to hear from House—and is therefore summarily dismissed, since hearing one’s own opinions being spoken by someone else is less useful than being challenged. I had a similar feeling with George Soros’s conversation last Wednesday morning with Chrystia Freeland, sponsored by Reuters and held in the NASDAQ building that, er, graces Times Square.
This Is Why The BP Disaster Will Be Easily Forgotten And Boom Times Are Ahead For Oil & Gas
Our colleague Joe Weisenthal highlighted this latest chart from CFR yesterday , which shows how China has the potential to become a monstrous oil consumer in the future, should it just reach similar oil consumption per capita levels as developed nations. What strikes us about this chart is how much it resembles many other commodity charts for China. For example, there's a similar argument for Chinese steel consumption potential, one which has been out in the market for many years already.
Banks were instructed to include worst-case scenarios of prices dropping 50 percent to 60 percent in cities where they have risen excessively ... Previous stress tests carried out in the past year assumed home-price declines of as much as 30 percent. At least they are realize prices can fall sharply. In some European countries the regulators assumed steady prices was a worst-case economic scenario!
Calculated Risk: China's Stress Tests: 60% Decline in House Prices
Two 200-Day Breaks -- Seeking Alpha
Two big asset-classes had major long-term trend reversals Wednesday. When a stock or index is trading above its 200-day moving average, it is considered to be in a long-term uptrend. When the price is trading below the 200-day, it is considered to be in a long-term downtrend.INTERVIEW WITH A CHINESE REAL ES
There has been much chatter in recent week’s regarding China’s potential bubble economy . As we now know, the Chinese government poured in more stimulus per GDP than the United States and with their economy rebounding substantially faster it looks like they are having trouble containing the red hot growth in the broad economy and in asset prices . This has been nowhere more apparent than it is in Chinese real estate where there is now enough commercial real estate to provide a 5X5 cubicle for every man, woman and child in China. China International Business recently sat down to interview Zhang Xin, CEO of SOHO China, Beijing’s largest commercial property developer. Her comments are startling to say the least and are all too reminiscent of the environment we saw here in the United States in 2006 & 2007 where anyone and everyone wanted a piece of the real estate market – except for some of the largest developers like Sam Zell who were selling.Remember how China was importing every commodity under the sun last year – quite inexplicably, considering exports were lagging throughout most of the period? Sean Corrigan at Diapason Commodities has a theory to explain the phenomenon. As he noted in an email to FT Alphaville:
Alphaville » What really drove Chinese commodity imports?
This column originally appeared in Forbes. The famed short-seller Jim Chanos has been making waves lately by saying he thinks China is in a bubble and ready to collapse in 2010. He argues that easy credit has let real estate and stock market prices shoot upward. He also says the Chinese government is cooking the numbers to show 8% growth in gross domestic products, when actually China can't keep growing when the rest of the world has been hit so hard by the financial crisis. Chanos called it right on Enron and Tyco before they collapsed. He is no lightweight observer of the economic scene.