Futures | Vol 43, Iss 7, Pgs 639-724, (September, 2011) Www.vibat.org/vibat_uk/pdf/vibatuk_stage1.pdf. Horizonscanning.defra.gov.uk/ViewDocument_Image.aspx?Doc_ID=190. Why Backcasting Can Help Us See the Pathway to a Sustainable Future. Image credit: WTL Photos, used under Creative Commons license. I've never liked vision statements.
All too often they smack of wishful thinking and fantasy. Yet the environmental movement is rife with them. As I have argued many times before, the green movement needs a concrete plan, and that plan needs to embrace strategic thinking. Luckily, vision statements are just one tool in our tool box; there's another one that can help turn visions into pathways: It's called backcasting.The idea behind backcasting is to first envision the future you want to see—being specific both in terms of goals and timelines. Whether it is a fossil-fuel free town by 2050, or a household that is 100% debt free by 2015, the idea is to not just say what you want, but when you want it too.
Rob Hopkins, founder of the Transition Movement, has long been an advocate of backcasting as a means of moving forward. Now I must confess I have never been one for such "workshop exercises" either. Transition in Action, Totnes 2030, an Energy Descent Action Plan. Ingredients of Transition: Backcasting. 15 Nov 2010 Ingredients of Transition: Backcasting Context: (We are collecting and discussing these Transition ingredients on Transition Network’s website to keep all comments in one place. Please leave feedback and comments, suggestions for alternative pictures, anecdotes, stories and projects for this ingredient here).
The challenge: Creating a vision of the future is all very well, but could well become an enjoyable but rather abstract dreaming exercise if it is not also accompanied by a process of backcasting. Core Text Backcasting is a straightforward idea, one which follows on naturally from the process of visioning. For example, if by 2018, 50% of any new buildings in a community are proposed to include 50% local materials, backcasting is very useful in terms of identifying what would need to be done by when, in order for this to be a possibility. . • By when would the infrastructure for processing locally grown hemp need to be in place? …. and so on. The solution: References: 1. 2. Backcasting 101. Backcasting. Www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/3b-Backcasting.pdf. HSC Toolkit - Backcasting (SAT) Why use it? Describing a preferred future. Setting out the steps to make it happen. Technique overview Expertise: Time horizon: Linked techniques: The Fifth scenario, Plausibility matrix, Visioning, Scenarios.