Manipulation. Persuassion/Con/Psychological Manipulation/Lies. How to Beat the Odds at Judging Risk. Most of us have to estimate probabilities every day.
Whether as a trader betting on the price of a stock, a lawyer gauging a witness's reliability or a doctor pondering the accuracy of a diagnosis, we spend much of our time—consciously or not—guessing about the future based on incomplete information. Unfortunately, decades of research indicate that humans are not very good at this. Most of us, for example, tend to vastly overestimate our chances of winning the lottery, while similarly underestimating the chances that we will get divorced. Psychologists have tended to assume that such biases are universal and virtually impossible to avoid. But certain groups of people—such as meteorologists and professional gamblers—have managed to overcome these biases and are thus able to estimate probabilities much more accurately than the rest of us. It helps, too, if the group makes predictions only on a narrow range of topics. WSJ Newsletter Notes on the News Sign up Check Your Inbox Continue Reading.
Argument map. A schematic argument map showing a contention (or conclusion), supporting arguments and objections, and an inference objection.
Argument maps are commonly used in the context of teaching and applying critical thinking.[2] The purpose of mapping is to uncover the logical structure of arguments, identify unstated assumptions, evaluate the support an argument offers for a conclusion, and aid understanding of debates. Argument maps are often designed to support deliberation of issues, ideas and arguments in wicked problems.[3] Key features[edit] A number of different kinds of argument map have been proposed but the most common, which Chris Reed and Glenn Rowe called the standard diagram,[5] consists of a tree structure with each of the reasons leading to the conclusion. According to Doug Walton and colleagues, an argument map has two basic components: "One component is a set of circled numbers arrayed as points. Statements 1 and 2 are dependent premises or co-premises History[edit] Notes[edit] Reflective argument as design. How to Disagree.
March 2008 The web is turning writing into a conversation.
Twenty years ago, writers wrote and readers read. The web lets readers respond, and increasingly they do—in comment threads, on forums, and in their own blog posts. Many who respond to something disagree with it. That's to be expected. The result is there's a lot more disagreeing going on, especially measured by the word. If we're all going to be disagreeing more, we should be careful to do it well. DH0. This is the lowest form of disagreement, and probably also the most common. U r a fag!!!!!!!!!!
But it's important to realize that more articulate name-calling has just as little weight. Behaviorism. Morality Quiz/Test your Morals, Values & Ethics - Your Morals.Org. Belief and Decision. How people become monsters ... or heroes. Emotional. Color Psychology. By David Johnson Like death and taxes, there is no escaping color.
It is ubiquitous. Yet what does it all mean? Why are people more relaxed in green rooms? Why do weightlifters do their best in blue gyms? Colors often have different meanings in various cultures. Black Black is the color of authority and power. White Brides wear white to symbolize innocence and purity. Red The most emotionally intense color, red stimulates a faster heartbeat and breathing. The most romantic color, pink, is more tranquilizing.
Blue The color of the sky and the ocean, blue is one of the most popular colors. Green Currently the most popular decorating color, green symbolizes nature. Yellow Cheerful sunny yellow is an attention getter. Purple The color of royalty, purple connotes luxury, wealth, and sophistication. Brown Solid, reliable brown is the color of earth and is abundant in nature. Colors of the Flag. How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb by HealingBlight. Highly Sensitive People Emotional Problems - Are You Too Sensitive. Photo Credit: George Doyle/Stockbyte Many years ago I had a falling-out with a girlfriend that proved so painful, I can hardly talk about it today.
My friend (let's call her Mary) was a colorful television personality and had the world at her feet. She was engaged to a handsome European, and her face was plastered across the newspapers. I was working for 60 Minutes at the time, and we often met for lunch. Then one day her show was canceled and she asked me — casually, as though it didn't really matter — if I'd put her forward as a reporter for 60 Minutes.
Mary never spoke to me again. Though I didn't know it then, I too am an HSP, and have since learned to identify a range of HSP behaviors and responses, both in myself and in others. Highly Sensitive Persons...Is it a Problem or a Gift? Highly sensitive persons (HSP's) have heightened sensitivity to their environments.
If you're a highly sensitive person, your nervous system literally picks up more information than the average person about what's going on around you. Support Group with Personal Stories, Forums and Chat.