New Study Finds 25-45% Of The Instrumental Warming Since The 1950s Is Due To Urbanization, Not CO2. By Kenneth Richard on 15.
February 2021 Why have sea surface temperatures and proxy temperature reconstructions so strongly diverged from the instrumental land record in recent decades? Because “0.36 ± 0.04 °C” of non-climatic warming from roofs, asphalt, machines, vehicles…artificially enhances the post-1950s global temperature trend. A new analysis (Scafetta, 2021) suggests: • Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects can raise city temperatures 6-9°C above the temperatures in surrounding rural areas. . • Sea surface temperatures and land temperatures showed matching variations and amplitudes from 1900 to 1980. . • Tree ring temperature reconstructions showed a strikingly similar pattern of amplitude and oscillation prior to the 1980s. . • Between 25-45% of the warming from 1940-’60 to 2000-’20 appears to be artificial, or non-climatic. • Climate models overestimate the 1940-’60 to 2000-’20 climatic warming by about 40% in hindcasts.
Image Source: Scafetta, 2021.
UHI in the Arctic. UHI in the US. UHI in the UK. UHI in China. UHI and the Temperature Record. Temperature Adjustments and Homogenization. How Not To Measure Temperature. UHI in Europe. UHI and Trees/Plants. The Megacities Are Cooking. Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [OK, had to start over, had bad numbers for the areas.
Graphics have been replaced. I was using “core area” but I should have been using “greater metropolitan area”. All conclusions are unchanged.] A New Look at the Urban Heat Island Effect – Watts Up With That? By Andy May Nicola Scafetta has just published a new paper in Climate Dynamics examining evidence of the urban heat island (UHI) effect (Scafetta, 2021).
The paper is not paywalled and can be downloaded here. In summary, Scafetta shows that part of the recent warming shown in the HadCRUT 4 global temperature record may be due to the UHI effect. He uses an analysis of diurnal maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures, climate model output, and a comparison of sea surface temperatures (SST) to land temperatures to estimate the possible influence on the HadCRUT 4 record. Climate Sensitivity Considering Urban and Natural Warming. Guest Post By Ken Gregory, P.Eng.
This blog post summarizes the paper Climate Sensitivity by Energy Balance with Urban and Natural Warming. Climatologists Nicholas Lewis and Dr. Judith Curry published a paper in the Journal of Climate in (LC2018) that used the observationally-based energy balance method to estimate the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and the Transient Climate Response (TCR). The ECS is the global average surface temperature change due to a doubling of CO2 after allowing the oceans to reach temperature equilibrium, which takes about 1500 years for the upper 3 km of the ocean. Urban Heat Island Influence Inadequately Considered in Climate Research. Guest Opinion: Dr.
Tim Ball The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) deliberately limited climate science to focus on CO2 and temperature. The Climate Sciences Use Of The Urban Heat Island Effect Is Pathetic And Misleading. By Geoffrey H Sherrington, Spinal Tap’s Nigel Tufnel demonstrates his hifi speakers are louder because the numbers all go to 11.
Scientific control knobs for climate change have to be used with more care. The ‘urban heat island’ arises because air temperatures measured in urban cities can be different to those of the rural city surroundings. Thermometers were and still are more often found in cities than surroundings. City temperatures have a synthetic, man-made component that needs to be subtracted to match the surrounding rural temperatures, which are the items of interest for climate studies. Failure to subtract the UHI effect will lead to false results for temperature trends such as those used to claim global warming.
BIG NEWS – Verified by NOAA – poor weather station siting leads to artificial long term warming. I’ve been saying for years that surface temperature measurements (and long term trends) have been affected by encroachment of urbanization on the placement of weather stations used to measure surface air temperature, and track long term climate.
Surface Stations Project. Surprise: Cold wave reveals potential benefits of urban heat islands. Quote of the Week: That time when climate science believed UHI was causing most of the twentieth century warming. 3% of Earth’s landmass is now urbanized. This study, from 2005, is not one I’ve covered here before, but I thought it was relevant to have a look at as a logical followup to the recent announcement from NASA at AGU that satellites have identified strong UHI signatures in cities.
The vast majority of the world’s surface weather stations used to monitor climate are in urban areas, many in the GHCN for example are at urban airports. h/t to Joe and Pete. – Anthony From Columbia University Earth Institute: The Growing Urbanization of the World GRUMP mapping project finds urban areas increasing in surprising ways New data collection from CIESIN’s Global Rural Urban Mapping Project shows that as much as three percent of the Earth’s land area has already been urbanized, which is double previous estimates.
New paper and stunning video from the Space Station – UHI much? Professor Ross McKitrick has just released a new paper on UHI, after reading it, it reminds me of this video from the space station.
Weather stations exist in the points of light that define humanity at night, even in rural out of the way places, like the Arctic, where there’s a point of light, indicating humanity and energy use, you’ll likely find a weather station used to monitor climate. Like the dark, humans don’t like the cold either, so where there’s light, there’s heat. Ross McKitrick writes: I have released a new discussion paper addressing some ongoing issues in the analysis of surface temperature data and its potential contamination by non-climatic local changes.
It is not meant to be the last word, so much as a glimpse of what the last word might sound like when it is eventually spoken. Study: Haze in China amplifies UHI effect. Study reveals surprising role of haze in the warming of Chinese citiesResearch reveals that impacts of haze pollution in the US and China vary significantly Smog hangs over a construction site in Weifang city, Shandong province, Oct 16. 2015.
Air quality went down in many parts of China since Oct 15 and most cities are shrounded by haze. [Photo/IC] Another UHI effect – thunderstorms & lightning. The March-April edition of WeatherWise magazine has an interesting article in it regarding UHI (Urban Heat Island) effects of enhancing thunderstorm formation in the downwind heat plume. It Stems from this paper (PDF) published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. I saw a similar study presented in August 2007 when I attended Dr.
Roger Pielke’s land use conference presented by Dr. Define Irony: Photovoltaic Heat Island Effect. Guest post by David Middleton From the Department of All Things Ironic… Solar panels, while they mitigate the effects of global warming by replacing fossil fuels, can add heat in the locations where they are installed, reports a team of University of Arizona researchers.At first blush, the experimental results, published Thursday in Nature Science Reports, seem to contradict computer simulations that said solar photovoltaic arrays, by intercepting some of the sun’s warming rays and converting them into electricity, would have a cooling effect.The UA researchers measured the heat-island effect of a solar array at the UA Tech Park at Rita Road and Interstate 10.
They found that its overnight temperatures were about five to seven degrees (Fahrenheit) warmer than a nearby plot of undisturbed desert.Additional experiments are being conducted to determine the potential effect of the measured heating on nearby communities and the overall environment.[…]Tucson.com References Barron-Gafford, G. UHI and heat related mortality. From Arizona State University Study links urbanization and future heat-related mortality TEMPE, Ariz. – Phoenix stands at a parched crossroads.
Global scale climate change is forecast to bring hotter summers and more extreme heat to the Valley, but regional urbanization also will impact temperatures experienced by residents. So how should Phoenix grow knowing that such growth could cause temperatures to increase in the future and bring added health risks? Yes, but what about all that extra UHI that water vapor will cause? Not to mention the water pollution…from Springer Select: To curb China’s haze and air pollution, use water New geoengineering research suggests pollution-control measures inspired by watering a garden A new idea to cut back on air pollution: spray water into the atmosphere from sprinklers atop tall buildings and towers, similar to watering a garden.
NASA - Satellites Pinpoint Drivers of Urban Heat Islands in the Northeast. "All We Need Is A Parking Lot, Air Conditioner, Golf Course And Airstrip" Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.George Orwell “1984” Climate experts measured a record hot month at Death Valley next to a parking lot, a giant air conditioner exhaust, an airstrip and a golf course. Death Valley sets record for hottest month ever recorded on Earth | The Independent Meanwhile, the same people want to erase the 1913 record of 134 degrees, which was taken correctly at a properly sighted thermometer. mwr-050-01-0010.pdf Doubts Cloud Death Valley’s 100-Year Heat Record | KPBS. Recent paper demonstrates relationship between temperature and population density in the UHI of New Delhi. This gives credence to Dr.
Spencer’s UHI -vs- population project – an update. In case you missed it, Roy Spencer performed a unique and valuable analysis comparing International Hourly Surface data to population density to provide a simple gauge for the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. It was presented at WUWT yesterday with this result: Spencer: Using hourly surface data to gauge UHI by population density. I believe this is a truly important piece of work. I hope Dr. Spencer will submit it to a journal. I’m grateful to Dr.
Roy Spencer’s ISH population adjusted discoveries. Mosher: “microsite bias matters more than UHI, especially in the first kilometer” The Chinese demonstrate that UHI has a real and essential effect on regional climate change. Study finds that urbanization has considerable influence on the regional climate change, they even blame proximity to air-conditioning as a factor. Press release from Science China Press (full paper follows) Tale Of Two Stations…Striking Contrast: Urban Tokyo Warms Strongly While Rural Island Station Shows No Warming. New paper: UHI, alive and well in China.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 116, D14113, 12 PP., 2011doi:10.1029/2010JD015452. Willis’ Favorite Airport. By Steven Mosher, Climate Craziness of the week – with the physical signature of UHI staring them right in the face, Mann & Borenstein go with their ‘gut’ instincts. Watts Up With That? Note: clearly satellites can see urban heat, as demonstrated by this recent paper unveiled at the 2010 AGU meeting by NASA. Does your weather station get the wind? How station siting compromises temperature measurements via wind issues.
A new paper showing how UHI and energy consumption are linked to long-term temperature change in China. Law of unintended consequences bites the ‘white roof UHI solution’ – causes reduced rainfall. PBS airs special on green rooftops, cites NCDC’s Thomas Peterson, who fumbles the UHI ball. Measuring UHI on a bike produces a new paper.