Video: Nassim Taleb - Black Swan Proof World. Black swan theory. Theory of response to surprise events The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did not exist. The expression was used until around 1697 when Dutch mariners saw black swans living in Australia. After this, the term was reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event.[1] The reinterpreted theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2001, to explain: Taleb's "black swan theory" (which differs from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem) refers only to statistically unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history.
Taleb asserts:[10] What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. Based on the author's criteria: Views of a Dark World. Getting Stronger through Stress: Making Black Swans Work for You. 3 Reasons Why Your Predictions Of The Future Will Go Wrong. Futurism is a richly metaphorical body of thought. It has to be; much of what we talk about is on the verge of unimaginable, so we have to resort to metaphors for it to make any kind of sense. Not all of the metaphors we use are complex: It struck me recently that there are several common futurist metaphors that take a relatively simple animal shape: the Dragon; the Black Swan; and the Mule. The Dragon The Dragon is the one that most people will find familiar. There’s a popular myth that the phrase “Here Be Dragons” can be found on medieval or ancient maps as an indication of uncharted regions.
That said, it’s been my experience that most of the times a futurist uses “here be dragons,” it’s to indicate a topic area in a forecast that is uncertain and dangerous to even think about, at least for the client. The Black Swan The problem with the Black Swan concept is that it’s highly subjective. The Mule If you’ve read Isaac Asimov’s Foundation trilogy, you know which Mule I’m talking about.