Video: Nassim Taleb - Black Swan Proof World. Black swan theory. Theory of response to surprise events The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.
Background[edit] Views of a Dark World. Getting Stronger through Stress: Making Black Swans Work for You. 3 Reasons Why Your Predictions Of The Future Will Go Wrong. Futurism is a richly metaphorical body of thought. It has to be; much of what we talk about is on the verge of unimaginable, so we have to resort to metaphors for it to make any kind of sense. Not all of the metaphors we use are complex: It struck me recently that there are several common futurist metaphors that take a relatively simple animal shape: the Dragon; the Black Swan; and the Mule.
The Dragon The Dragon is the one that most people will find familiar. There’s a popular myth that the phrase “Here Be Dragons” can be found on medieval or ancient maps as an indication of uncharted regions. That said, it’s been my experience that most of the times a futurist uses “here be dragons,” it’s to indicate a topic area in a forecast that is uncertain and dangerous to even think about, at least for the client. The Black Swan The problem with the Black Swan concept is that it’s highly subjective. The Mule If you’ve read Isaac Asimov’s Foundation trilogy, you know which Mule I’m talking about.