Getting to a Quadrillion Dollar World with a closer look at GDP growth, education and demographics. Last week, Nextbigfuture described a future where China helps build out the infrastructure that the rest of the developing world needs over the next few decades.
The shortfall of infrastructure is lowering the potential GDP growth by 2-3% in many countries. An extra 2% GDP growth globally would accelerate the arrival of a world with a quadrillion dollar economy measured in todays dollars. China is leveraging its $4 trillion in reserves to provide low interest financing for high speed rail, export of Chinese nuclear reactors, factories and property development.
China is offering to fill the worlds infrastructure gap. This will enable all of the developing world to follow the China economic development plan. Asia’s Economic Miracle Has Peaked. Historically, economics has often driven the narrative surrounding presidential visits to Asia.
Consider President Obama’s 2009 trip to China in the midst of the global financial crisis. It gave wings to a narrative about China’s rise and American decline. The economic environment may be changing again. Asiaphoria or Asiaphobia? Author: Paul Hubbard, ANU Those in the business of long-run GDP projections expect Asia, and particularly China, to keep growing above world trend rates for some years.
The most optimistic — such as former Chief Economist at the World Bank, Justin Lin — have China growing at 8 per cent for at least the next decade. The semi-official China 2030 report projects 7 per cent growth later this decade, falling to between 6–5 per cent by 2030. The Australia in the Asian Century White Paper projected Chinese economic growth of 7 per cent and Indian growth of 6.75 per cent until 2025. Japan's quantitative easing: A bigger bazooka. China flexes its muscles at APEC with the revival of FTAAP. Author: Mireya Solís, Brookings Institution The 2014 APEC leaders’ summit witnessed a string of successes in Chinese trade diplomacy.
Key among these successes was the endorsement of China’s signature trade initiative as APEC host: the realisation sooner rather than later of a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP). China also reached a substantive agreement with South Korea on their bilateral FTA and a breakthrough on negotiations with the Americans to expand the coverage of the Information Technology Agreement — which promises to re-energise a US$1 trillion market in technology goods trade. But why did China choose FTAAP as its landmark initiative for the APEC summit? The FTAAP concept was first developed by the Americans, so why did China borrow it to stake a leadership claim in defining the future of Asia Pacific economic integration? Asia’s Economic Miracle Has Peaked. Welcoming China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank initiative.
Author: Andrew Elek, ANU In October 2013, just before the APEC meeting in Bali, Chinese president Xi Jinping announced the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
The bank will be launched this year, possibly when APEC leaders meet in Beijing. This new development bank can help fill the vast unmet demand for productive economic infrastructure, especially in the emerging economies of Asia. Why is Indian FDI shying away from South Asia? Author: Saman Kelegama, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka.
Our Mismeasured Economy. Photo TODAY’S polarized debates about the role of government often boil down to a single issue: the size of government compared with the size of the overall economy, as measured in .
This is true on both sides of the debate. One recent proposal featured in The Wall Street Journal argues for a “golden fiscal rule” that the size of government as a percentage of G.D.P. should always be shrinking; liberals frequently cite the higher ratio of government spending to G.D.P. in many European countries. But such comparisons are not very meaningful: The way we measure government’s role in the economy is limited, inaccurate and unrealistic. If we want to understand how government and the overall economy interact, knowing the size of government tells us little if we are not measuring how government activities contribute to our economy over time. Rise of The Asian Cyber Armies - USNI News. States are increasingly standing up military and intelligence organizations for computer network operations.
While countries everywhere perceive a need to attack and defend in cyberspace, cyber forces are of particular interest to security in Asia because they coincide with a regional investment in naval, air, and command, control and communications systems. And although American society may be vulnerable to disruption, highly technical and increasingly informatized Asian societies also face complex security challenges. What will happen if countries carve up the internet? How to prepare for Asia’s digital-banking boom.
Building Silk Roads for the 21st century. Author: Pradumna B.
Rana, RSIS China’s emergence as the ‘factory of the world’, based on its focus on exporting labour-intensive manufactures, is well-known. Less well-known is the role that infrastructure played in this strategy. From 1992 to 2011 China spent 8.5 per cent of GDP on infrastructure, much more than the developing country average of 2–4 per cent, according to a 2013 McKinsey Global Institute report. Canada-asia_agenda_44.pdf. China’s digital transformation. As individual companies adopt web technologies, they gain the ability to streamline everything from product development and supply-chain management to sales, marketing, and customer interactions.
For China’s small enterprises, greater digitization provides an opportunity to boost their labor productivity, collaborate in new ways, and expand their reach via e-commerce. In fact, new applications of the Internet could account for up to 22 percent of China’s labor-productivity growth by 2025. Modi a shot in the arm for Indian economy. A new crisis for Asia’s emerging economies? Author: Hiro Ito, Portland State University Countries around the globe have been nervously paying attention to the world’s advanced economies. Many have still not been able to embark on a sustainable path of recovery since the global financial crisis.
The United States, the euro zone, the United Kingdom and Japan essentially exhausted conventional monetary policy measures by guiding their policy interest rates to almost zero. These economies have now been dosed with unconventional measures, including large-scale asset purchases and quantitative easing. While the advanced countries have been struggling to jumpstart their economies, others, especially emerging market economies, have become good investment destinations for international investors. India and China, the tortoise and the hare. Why There Are No Credit Scores in China. HONG KONG — Few would dispute that Chinese society suffers from a serious trust problem. After surviving crafty scams and shoddy products for years, Chinese people have become guarded with strangers and cautious in business dealings. Given all that, it would be tempting to celebrate the fact that, according to a May 5 report in Chinese state media, the powerful National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has signaled that a nationwide electronic system will be established by 2017 to track each Chinese citizen's credit history.
This would include performance on meeting obligations connected to taxation, government transactions, finance, judicial matters, and traffic violations. The Chinese Are Coming, and It's Going to Be Fine. WASHINGTON, D.C. — On April 29, the United States Chamber of Commerce, a U.S. lobbying group, announced that Chinese investment in the United States surpassed U.S. investment in China for the first time. Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific - Sustaining the Momentum: Vigilance and Reforms, April 2014.
World Economic and Financial Surveys. As Obama Visits TPP Countries, New Obama Administration Report Targets Their Public Interest Policies as “Trade Barriers” to be Eliminated.