הרצאתו של ד"ר חיים שפירא Worried Sick. Something strange was happening in New Zealand.
In the fall of 2007, pharmacies across the country had begun dispensing a new formulation of Eltroxin—the only thyroid hormone replacement drug approved and paid for by the government and used by tens of thousands of New Zealanders since 1973. Within months, reports of side effects began trickling in to the government’s health-care monitoring agency. These included known side effects of the drug, such as lethargy, joint pain, and depression, as well as symptoms not normally associated with the drug or disease, including eye pain, itching, and nausea.
We're All Predictably Irrational - Dan Ariely. גולף ומוסר מאת דן אריאלי. Very Bad Wizards. WIZE: פרופ' דן אריאלי - הפסיכולוגיה של הכסף, ובירה. Wk1. Behavioral Economics Glossary (all) May 2013 flashcards. The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone - Especially Ourselves: Amazon.co.uk: Dan Ariely. I find Dan Ariely's books to be enjoyable, enlightening and mildly annoying, in equal measures.
The mildly annoying bit is surely unfair (and unreasonable) of me. I do tend to find Ariely's determinedly jaunty tone a bit wearying: he writes as if his readers were a pleasant but especially dim-witted intake of undergraduates. This is probably the secret of his publishing success: as the great H. L. Mencken said, 'No one has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people' (you and me, in this context).
Ariely, to be fair, sets out to write popular science, and he succeeds admirably, although - as ever with the genre - some of the science gets lost in amongst the popularisation. All that said, this is a jolly and informative romp through some genuinely interesting current psychological thinking, entertainingly and readably presented. Dan Ariely: What makes us feel good about our work? Logistic regression. In statistics, logistic regression, or logit regression, or logit model[1] is a type of probabilistic statistical classification model.[2] It is also used to predict a binary response from a binary predictor, used for predicting the outcome of a categorical dependent variable (i.e., a class label) based on one or more predictor variables (features).
That is, it is used in estimating the parameters of a qualitative response model. The probabilities describing the possible outcomes of a single trial are modeled, as a function of the explanatory (predictor) variables, using a logistic function. Frequently (and hereafter in this article) "logistic regression" is used to refer specifically to the problem in which the dependent variable is binary—that is, the number of available categories is two—while problems with more than two categories are referred to as multinomial logistic regression or, if the multiple categories are ordered, as ordered logistic regression.
Basics[edit] Apps.olin.wustl.edu/faculty/cryder/TightwadSpendthriftScale.pdf. Www.people.hbs.edu/mnorton/mogilner chance norton.pdf. Michael Norton: How to buy happiness. The Christian Science Monitor. The Paradox of Choice: A theory loses favor. Does your brain freeze when offered too many options? Do you put off repainting your bathroom because you can’t bear to select among fifty shades of white (or, for the more adventurous, grey)? Skip to next paragraph Donald Marron Donald B. Marron is director of economic policy initiatives at the Urban Institute. Recent posts Subscribe Today to the Monitor Click Here for your FREE 30 DAYS ofThe Christian Science MonitorWeekly Digital Edition If so, take heart.
That makes no sense in the narrow sense of rationality often used in simple economic models. This result resonates with many people. Today’s TED Blog provides links and, naturally, videos for a series of studies documenting similar challenges of choice, from retirement planning to health care to spaghetti sauce. But how general are these results? It is hard to find much evidence that retailers are ferociously simplifying their offerings in an effort to boost sales. But a curious thing happened almost immediately.
Behavioral economics: Reunifying psychology and economics. Www.princeton.edu/~kahneman/docs/Publications/Maps_bounded_rationality_DK_2003.pdf. Seth Godin: This is broken. Following the Money, but Also the Mind. IN the histories of economics still to be written, the spring of 1994 will almost certainly be flagged as momentous.
That is when an ophthalmologist's son from Main Line Philadelphia -- David Laibson -- received his Ph.D. in economics, qualifying with a thesis about willpower and money that drew as much on psychology and quirky behavior as on standard economics. Harvard quickly hired him, becoming the first university to deliberately recruit an economics professor trained as a behavioral economist. Behavioral economics had finally arrived: a discipline that for a half-century had built its theories on the rigid assumption that people acted with rational, unemotional self-interest had formally recognized that human beings had another, feisty, side to them.
Three years later, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology followed Harvard's lead, hiring Sendhil Mullainathan just after he earned his Ph.D. Mr. Test-Taking Cements Knowledge Better Than Studying, Researchers Say.