Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis. This article deals with a subset of the intellectual process of intelligence analysis itself, as opposed to intelligence analysis management, which in turn is a subcomponent of intelligence cycle management. For a complete hierarchical list of articles in this series, see the intelligence cycle management hierarchy. Intelligence analysis is plagued by many of the cognitive traps also encountered in other disciplines. The first systematic study of the specific pitfalls lying between an intelligence analyst and clear thinking was carried out by Dick Heuer.[1] According to Heuer, these traps may be rooted either in the analyst's organizational culture or his or her own personality. Types[edit] The most common personality trap, known as mirror-imaging[2] is the analysts' assumption that the people being studied think like the analysts themselves.
Inappropriate analogies are yet another cognitive trap. Organizational culture[edit] The "other culture"[edit] The social anthropologist Edward T. Cognitive Dissonance. Understanding this experiment sheds a brilliant light on the dark world of our inner motivations.
The ground-breaking social psychological experiment of Festinger and Carlsmith (1959) provides a central insight into the stories we tell ourselves about why we think and behave the way we do. The experiment is filled with ingenious deception so the best way to understand it is to imagine you are taking part. So sit back, relax and travel back. The time is 1959 and you are an undergraduate student at Stanford University… As part of your course you agree to take part in an experiment on ‘measures of performance’. You are told the experiment will take two hours. Little do you know, the experiment will actually become a classic in social psychology.
The set-up Once in the lab you are told the experiment is about how your expectations affect the actual experience of a task. So you settle down to the first task you are given, and quickly realise it is extremely boring. Experimental slip-up. What is a Decision Matrix, FREE Template and Example. Also known as: decision-making matrix, solutions prioritization matrix, cost/benefit analysis matrix, problem/solution matrix, options/criteria matrix, vendor selection matrix, criteria/alternatives matrix, RFP evaluation matrix, COWS decision matrix, C.O.W.S. decision matrix, supplier rating spreadsheet, comparison matrix template, importance/performance matrix, criteria-based decision matrix, importance/performance-based decision matrix, weighted score matrix, proposal evaluation matrix, criteria/alternatives matrix, software selection matrix, or bid decision matrix.
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Many successful people think from a very rational, positive viewpoint. Similarly, pessimists may be excessively defensive, and more emotional people may fail to look at decisions calmly and rationally. If you look at a problem with the 'Six Thinking Hats' technique, then you will solve it using all approaches. How to Use the Tool You can use Six Thinking Hats in meetings or on your own. Each 'Thinking Hat' is a different style of thinking. White Hat: With this thinking hat you focus on the data available. Example Key Points. Tools for creating ideas.