Public Opinion Strategies » Blog Archive » The New Electoral Math, and What It Means for Polling. While the debate rages over whether the GOP should view this as a message problem, a messenger problem, or a math problem, I wanted to take this blog post to underscore the challenge facing us from a math perspective – i.e. why it is important that we work hard to improve with Hispanics.
As a party, we outright won swing voter groups, but lost the election. That’s staggering. This post also takes a look at the implications for polling going forward – a topic that we’ve touched on several times already on TQIA, but one that bears further analysis. The New Electoral Math The exit pollsters asked which was the most important candidate quality – vision for the future (29%), shares my values (27%), cares about people like me (21%), and strong leader (18%). Mitt Romney won three of the four qualities. Thus, Romney controlled leadership, vision, and values, yet still lost, because he got blown out on the empathy dimension.
Fox News In State of Shock When Obama Wins the Election. Mitt Romney's Concession Phone Call To President Obama (Jimmy Fallon) President Barack Obama Victory Speech 2012: Election Remarks From Chicago Illinois. Presidential Debate 2012 (Complete) Romney vs.Obama - 10/3/2012 - Elections 2012. Obama Campaign Polls: How The Internal Data Got It Right. WASHINGTON -- Summing up the lessons learned from a massive investment in data and technology, Obama campaign manager Jim Messina has a blunt message for pollsters: "We spent a whole bunch of time figuring out that American polling is broken.
" NBCNews.com video: Why did Romney lose? NBCNews.com video: Obama campaign used micro-targeting during election. Romney's "Gifts" Defense: Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker quick to denounce former nominee's election explanation. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images.
"The president's campaign, if you will, focused on giving targeted groups a big gift. He made a big effort on small things. " That was Mitt Romney explaining his election loss to his big-dollar donors during a conference call Wednesday. Slate's Will Saletan and David Weigel have already dug into that quote (and those that accompanied it) and what it says about Romney. But in the meantime, Romney's fellow Republicans—those still in office and/or those harboring dreams of higher office—wasted little time putting some space between themselves and their former presidential nominee. E.J. Dionne Jr.: The inconvenient truths of 2012. Begin with the GOP: As Republicans dig out from a defeat that their poll-deniers said was impossible, they need to acknowledge many large failures.
Their attempts to demonize President Obama and undercut him by obstructing his agenda didn’t work. Their assumption that the conservative side would vote in larger numbers than Democrats was wrong. The tea party was less the wave of the future than a remnant of the past. Blocking immigration reform and standing by silently while nativist voices offered nasty thoughts about newcomers were bad ideas. Latino voters heard it all and drew the sensible electoral conclusion.
Romney: Obama’s gift giving led to loss. Mitt Romney is blaming his loss in the presidential election on “Obamacare” and other “gifts” he says President Obama handed out to African Americans, Hispanics and other core supporters, according to news reports Wednesday.
The defeated Republican candidate told donors in a conference call that Obama targeted those demographics, along with young voters and women, through programs such as health-care reform and “amnesty” for children of illegal immigrants, according to articles posted online by the New York Times and Los Angeles Times. Both papers appeared to have listened to the call or obtained at least partial transcripts.
In explaining his overwhelming electoral college defeat last week, Romney said Obama followed what he called the “old playbook” of seeking votes from specific interest groups, “especially the African-American community, the Hispanic community and young people,” the New York Times said. “We have got to stop dividing American voters. . . . Road to Obama's victory in 3 minutes. Improbable reprieve at Iran gallows New footage shows 2013 plant explosion Purported al Qaeda meeting caught on tape Blood moon blows up social media Japan, S.
Korea talk over 'comfort women' Lunar eclipse in 45 sec Ferry tragedy: Mother haunted by decision Outrage grows after ferry sinks Survivor doesn't know her rescuer's name Families of the missing lash out Scenario shows what sinking feels like Weather hampering ferry rescue operation Police: Ferry may have been off course South Korea captain could face charges Rescue crews continue search for missing South Korean ferry captain: 'I am sorry' 'I think we are all going to die' Did human error sink the South Korean ferry?
CNN goes up close with an underwater ROV Is there a better way to find MH370? Soaring cost in search for Flight 370 How hard is it to find a black box? BMW to produce 450,000 cars in the US What these glasses see may save lives New Facebook tool finds your friends Can Detroit transform itself? 50 Out Of 50 'Outliers' Tuesday was a good night for the "quants," including Pollster, which called every state correctly in the presidential and senate contests - as noted by The Wall Street Journal, Marketplace, US News, The New York Times, The Chronicle Of Higher Education, Reuters and C|Net.
Harry Enten explains how pollsters won the election, mostly. Colby Cosh assesses Nate Silver. Jan Crawford reports the Romney campaign believed the public polls were skewed, oversampled Democrats and didn't reflect Republican enthusiasm. Reid Wilson reports on partisan internal polls that showed one reality for the Republicans and another for the Democrats.
Sasha Issenberg gives a shout out to Democratic pollsters as patrons of methodological innovation. Dave Weigel remembers an overlooked exit poll win. Watch this: The killer ad that crushed Romney’s campaign. Deep-pocketed super PACs largely fell flat in the 2012 campaign.
But one particular ad released by the pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA delivered a devastating blow to Mitt Romney’s campaign efforts in the battleground Rust Belt states, mainly Ohio, according to a new analysis from The New Yorker’s Jane Mayer. The ad was titled ‘Stage.’ It featured Mike Earnest, a member of the much sought-after “everyman” demographic, and chronicled how Mitt Romney and Bain Capital systematically dismantled the paper plant Earnest worked at in Marion, Ind.
Earnest recalls how he was told to build a stage for a company that later announced huge layoffs. Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race. As Americans’ modes of communication change, the techniques that produce the most accurate polls seems to be changing as well.
In last Tuesday’s presidential election, a number of polling firms that conduct their surveys online had strong results. Some telephone polls also performed well. But others, especially those that called only landlines or took other methodological shortcuts, performed poorly and showed a more Republican-leaning electorate than the one that actually turned out. Our method of evaluating pollsters has typically involved looking at all the polls that a firm conducted over the final three weeks of the campaign, rather than its very last poll alone. The reason for this is that some polling firms may engage in “herding” toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms.
For instance, a polling firm that had Mr. Adviser: Romney "shellshocked" by loss. Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, speaks at the podium as he concedes the presidency during Mitt Romney's campaign election night event at the Boston Convention & Exhibition Center on November 7, 2012 in Boston, Massachusetts.
Alex Wong/Getty Images BOSTON, Mass. Barack Obama And The Death Of Normal. I was on an airplane last night as the election was decided. As the plane landed after midnight on the East Coast, I confess that my hand was shaking as I turned on my phone for the news. I did not want to see dishonesty and divisiveness and raw political hackery rewarded. It is hard enough for anyone to actually address the problems, to move this country forward, to make the intransigent American ruling class yield even a yard of the past to the inevitable future.
But going backwards last night would have been devastating. The GOP Must Choose: Rush Limbaugh or Minority Voters - Conor Friedersdorf. The talk radio host is the voice of a coalition totally oblivious to how its racially-charged rhetoric sounds. Reuters Rush Limbaugh is confused. He just can't understand why the Republican Party has so much trouble with blacks, Hispanics and women. Elections Results: Presidential, Governor, Congressional. Simon Jackman: Pollster Predictive Performance, 51 out of 51. The morning after a good night for the predictions we made with my poll-averaging model... The headline: If Florida stays in the Obama column, we will have called each state correctly: 51 out of 51, and the Obama Electoral College count bang on 332. We're not alone on this. Drew Linzer at Votomatic, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, Sam Wang... it looks like we've all hit it.
And think about that for a moment. David C. Wilson: The Elephant in the Exit Poll Results: Most White Women Supported Romney. I think Nate Silver deserves a lot of credit for being one of the few "poll readers" willing to forecast a numeric probability of Obama's win before Election Day even started, and getting darn close. However, I'll withhold credit from many popular analysts who are ignoring the significant role race and ethnicity played in Obama's win. Throughout this election, race has been the elephant in the room, and the inability to discuss its effects will likely endure if we continue to mollify it's chronic role in American politics. SPOILER: This is not an article about women, it's about data. There have been several headlines about how women, young voters, and even Catholics led the way for Obama.
At the Polls, Choose Your Capitalism. Faced with sharply contrasting approaches to our troubles, voters must grapple with two critical questions: What is the nature of our problem, and how did we get here? Above all, we must confront the way our choices, as a society, have shaped our predicament. The sense of economic vulnerability weighing over the middle class has been building for decades, beginning well before the financial crisis and recession that scarred the last four years. We explain it to ourselves as a product of forces beyond our control: technology, which automated many formerly good jobs, or globalization, which put American workers in direct competition with cheaper labor in poor countries around the world.
These relentless dynamics have sent unheard-of profits toward the prosperous few while threatening the jobs and eroding the wages of the rest. This understanding, while broadly accurate, ignores the role of our choices in managing the powerful global dynamics. 5 Disturbing Signs Romney Would Steer Us to Towards a Capitalist Dictatorship. November 3, 2012 | Like this article? Examining the Last Four Years. Obama’s Blunder Was in Ceding Political Center to Romney. The third and final presidential debate did little to change the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who are tied with just two weeks to go. Even so, this week’s inconsequential contest provides a key of sorts to understanding the election. New York Times Endorsements Through the Ages - Interactive Feature. A Tight Focus on Battleground States and Undecided Voters for Obama and Romney.
Damon Winter/The New York Times President Obama kept up attacks on Mitt Romney in Delray Beach, Fla., on Tuesday, a drive that Mr. Romney called desperate. Steve Lombardo: 21 Days to Go and This Race Is Essentially Tied. Budget Crisis Likely to Define Obama or Romney Term. If Mr. The Big Secret of the Election - Mitt Romney and Barack Obama Basically Agree on the Economy. Liberalism's Glass Jaw. Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesBarack Obama at the Presidential Debate on October 3, 2012, in Denver, Colorado. Why Mitt Romney isn’t going to get blown out. Can Romney follow Bush’s 2004 path to victory? It looks dicey. Let’s start with the Bush map that delivered him 286 electoral votes and a second term.
Bush won 31 states — a sum that included victories in the following swing states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio and Florida. How Paul Ryan Convinced Washington Of His Genius. THE TALL, GOOD-LOOKING young man from Wisconsin sure was likable and energetic, but in the early 1990s, no one in Washington expected Paul Ryan to become the intellectual tribune of his party. It wasn’t clear at first that he even wanted to be in D.C. Swing-State Map, List & Polls. The Elephant in the Room. Elizabeth Warren’s Journey into Politics. The Heirs of Reagan's Optimism. Presidential Election Trial Heat Results: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney. Why George W. Bush Will Decide the 2012 Election - Newsweek and The Daily Beast. Obama Unleashes New Medicare Study. Gallup Poll Shows Bump In Approval For Obama After Convention.
Exclusive: How Karl Rove's Super PAC Plays the Senate. Karl Rove: He's Back, Big Time. Why Obama Went Low Key in His Democratic Convention Speech. Obama, Clinton Scored Back to Back Home Runs With Their Speeches. Character, Not Audacity. In DNC speech, Kerry assails, continues war of words with Romney - Political Intelligence - A national political and campaign blog from The Boston Globe.
Say What: Barack Obama accepts party's nomination. Behind the Enthusiasm Gap, a War-Weary Obama? - Garance Franke-Ruta. DNC 2012: John Kerry’s speech to the Democratic National Convention (Full text) Winners and losers from the final night of the Democratic National Convention. Are You Better Off? Here Are the Numbers. At the Democratic Convention, the Words Being Used - Interactive Feature. Obama, Seeking Re-Election, Asks for Patience.
Say What: Bill Clinton makes case for Obama. Democratic Convention Speeches: Bill Clinton - Interactive Feature. Why Bill Clinton's Speeches Succeed - James Fallows. 2012-National-Platform.pdf (application/pdf Object) Obama's Economy Grade: President says he deserves an "incomplete." Lacking Spirit of ’08, Democrats Still Find Reason to Unite. An Early Electoral College Guide: Which States Will and Won't Matter in 2012. A Closer Look at the Parties in 2012. New Evidence That 2008 Was a Major Aberration for Democrats. Cruel Conservatives Throw a Masquerade Ball. A New Guide to the Republican Herd - Multimedia Feature. A New Guide to the Democratic Herd - Multimedia Feature. The Real Obama Needs to Fight Five GOP Myths About the Imaginary Obama. A scorecard on President Obama's campaign promises.
Five Things To Watch In Charlotte. Can Obama Be Defeated by Romney? Surprising Poll Data Revealed. Mr. Romney Reinvents History. Romney Battles Americans’ Attachment to Obama. Persuadable Voters. Greed and Debt: The True Story of Mitt Romney and Bain Capital. Mindful Money.