Philosophy, Logic, and Rationalism
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Correlation does not imply causation. Sometimes corr(X,Y) means X=>Y; sometimes it means Y=>X; sometimes it means W=>X, W=>Y. And sometimes it's an artifact of people's beliefs about corr(X, Y).
Less Wrong: Self-fulfilling correlations
Dynamic inconsistency
In economics , dynamic inconsistency , or time inconsistency , describes the situation: A decision-maker's preferences change over time , in such a way that a preference, at one point in time, is inconsistent with a preference at another point in time. It is often easiest to think about preferences over time in this context by thinking of decision-makers as being made up of many different "selves", with each self representing the decision-maker at a different point in time. So, for example, there is my today self, my tomorrow self, my next Tuesday self, my year from now self, etc. The inconsistency will occur when somehow the preferences of some of the selves are not aligned with each other. One type of inconsistency is more closely affiliated with game theory , and "dynamic inconsistency" is the more commonly used terminology in this case.
The Lucas critique , named for Robert Lucas ' work on macroeconomic policymaking, argues that it is naïve to try to predict the effects of a change in economic policy entirely on the basis of relationships observed in historical data, especially highly aggregated historical data. [ 1 ] The basic idea pre-dates Lucas' contribution (related ideas are expressed as Campbell's Law and Goodhart's Law ), but in a 1976 paper Lucas drove home the point that this simple notion invalidated policy advice based on conclusions drawn from large-scale macroeconometric models . Because the parameters of those models were not structural, i.e. not policy-invariant, they would necessarily change whenever policy (the rules of the game) was changed. Policy conclusions based on those models would therefore potentially be misleading.
Lucas critique
Epistemology for the Rest of the World 「残りの世界」のための認識論 世界各地的認識論 세계의 나머지 부분에 대한 인식론 दुनिया के बाकी के लिए ज्ञान - मीमांसा
Experimental Philosophy
Table of Contents abduction (Igor Douven) Abelard [Abailard], Peter (Peter King) Abhidharma (Noa Ronkin) abilities (John Maier) Abner of Burgos (Shalom Sadik) Abrabanel, Judah (Aaron Hughes) abstract objects (Gideon Rosen) accidental properties — see essential vs. accidental properties action (George Wilson and Samuel Shpall) action at a distance — see quantum mechanics: action at a distance in actualism (Christopher Menzel) adaptationism (Steven Hecht Orzack and Patrick Forber) Addams, Jane (Maurice Hamington) Adorno, Theodor W. (Lambert Zuidervaart) advance directives (Agnieszka Jaworska) Aegidius Romanus — see Giles of Rome Aenesidemus — see skepticism: ancient aesthetic, concept of the (James Shelley) aesthetics affirmative action (Robert Fullinwider) Africana Philosophy (Lucius T.
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy