On the Record: Predictions - Long Bets. Mobility Hasn’t Changed, But It Means Less Than It Used To. By Daniel Altman A new study from some top economists shows that income mobility in the United States hasn’t changed in half a century. At any rate, that’s the way plenty of news outlets wrote their headlines. Yet the study also makes a much more worrying point: income mobility is much less powerful than it used to be. Here are some of the headlines from this morning: All of these headlines are referring to one finding of the study: given a person’s starting position, the chances of moving up or down the income distribution are about the same today as they were in the past several decades.
The problem is that starting positions have changed dramatically. Today, the income distribution is far more skewed than it used to be, and most of the skew is at the top. To see why, let’s say that income mobility still hasn’t changed today. What will this mean for the person’s actual income? Image courtesy of Shutterstock. Envisioning the World of Tomorrow: a Catalog of Future-Looking Web Sites. What technologies are currently shaping our world…and which will continue to mold our future? In this special posting, we’ll take you on a tour of many wondrous web sites and other resources that aim spotlights at the future.
And invite you all to chime in with favorites that I missed! These visionary sites keep an eye on breakthroughs in scientific research and advances in cutting edge technologies. They offer insights into innovative trends that impact industry, education, energy, entertainment, transportation, economics, medicine, and war… with repercussions that spread through all aspects of society. What progress is happening in artificial intelligence, computers, robotics, drones, biotechnology and nanotechnology? Websites that explore the Future Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies (IEET)—a “technoprogressive” think tank—promotes the concept of positive technological progress and its ethical use to catalyze future human development. Discussing the Future: Podcasts . Oxford Martin School | University of Oxford.
GlobalComment | where the world thinks out loudGlobalComment | where the world thinks out loud. Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change | The University of Manchester. About the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies. The Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies was formed to study and debate vital questions such as: Which technologies, especially new ones, are likely to have the greatest impact on human beings and human societies in the 21st century? What ethical issues do those technologies and their applications raise for humans, our civilization, and our world?
How much can we extrapolate from the past and how much accelerating change should we anticipate? What sort of policy positions can be recommended to promote the best possible outcomes for individuals and societies? IEET's Mission The Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies is a nonprofit think tank which promotes ideas about how technological progress can increase freedom, happiness, and human flourishing in democratic societies. Learn More IEET Introductory Literature Technology and democracy complement one another, ensuring that safe technology is generally accessible and democratically accountable.
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