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Global Demographics

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Publication11151_en. The Age of Aging: How Demographics are Changing the Global Economy and Our World. Demographics, Destiny and Asset Markets. I am in Minnesota this morning doing a speech, but do have a very good candidate for this week’s Outside the Box. Tony Boeckh just published a piece by George Magnus on demographics and the markets that I think is very thought-provoking. Demographics is something I think about a lot and you should too. I will let Tony do the introduction of George. Have a good week. My goal is to write this Friday’s letter a little early so that I can get in some fishing time. Your concerned about the lack of growth analyst, John Mauldin, Editor Outside the Box Demographics, Destiny and Asset Markets By George Magnus (Contributing Editor) Dear Subscriber, As the world economy and financial system struggle to regain their footing, they must contend with a number of problems.

This letter contains a special feature on the subject by Contributing Editor, George Magnus, Senior Economic Advisor, UBS Investment Bank. Demographics, Destiny and Asset Markets Let’s put it another way. Losing our Growth Drivers P.S. The Global Demographic Dependency Debacle. PGDA_WP_71.pdf. Long-Term Trendspotting: Demographics Matter | Empirical Finance Blog. Robert Arnott and Denis Chaves A version of the paper can be found here. Abstract: “It seems natural that the shifting composition of a nation’s population ought to influence GDP growth and perhaps also capital markets returns. Entrepreneurialism, innovation, and invention tend to be associated with young adults. Accordingly, GDP growth should perhaps be best when there is a preponderance of young adults in a population. Investing for retirement is associated with middle-age, with a shift in preferences toward bonds with late-middle-age.

So, stock and bond returns might be best in populations with growing rosters of these age groups, respectively. Our data—spanning over 60 yearsand 22 countries in our main tests and roughly 175 countries in out-of-sample robustness checks—support all of our priors. Data Sources: The authors access demographic information and GDP data from the United Nations and the Penn World Table, which document data from over 200 countries back to 1950. Discussion: 1. George Magnus: The time-bomb of Britain's rapidly ageing population. The Spanish film-maker Luis Buñuel reportedly once quipped that age is not important unless you're a cheese. Quite right, and who would not see longer and healthier life expectancy as something to celebrate? But beyond this, a darker side to the issue of a rapidly ageing population also looms. For the first time, Britain's over-65s outnumber people aged under 16. By 2035, these two age groups will have grown by 4 million (or nearly 50%), and 500,000, respectively.

The working age group in between will be a little smaller. The UK, note, is one of the better-positioned advanced nations when it comes to rapid ageing. The unique shifts in age structure have enormous implications for people, society and the economy. For society, the main issues concern the provision of health and social care services, the nature of work and the workplace, and the investment made in human capital, or education and lifetime skill formation.

These initiatives address mainly quality of life issues.

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