Technological singularity The technological singularity is the hypothesis that accelerating progress in technologies will cause a runaway effect wherein artificial intelligence will exceed human intellectual capacity and control, thus radically changing civilization in an event called the singularity. Because the capabilities of such an intelligence may be impossible for a human to comprehend, the technological singularity is an occurrence beyond which events may become unpredictable, unfavorable, or even unfathomable. The first use of the term "singularity" in this context was by mathematician John von Neumann. Proponents of the singularity typically postulate an "intelligence explosion", where superintelligences design successive generations of increasingly powerful minds, that might occur very quickly and might not stop until the agent's cognitive abilities greatly surpass that of any human. Basic concepts Superintelligence Non-AI singularity Intelligence explosion Exponential growth Plausibility
I Have Seen The Future, And Its Sky Is Full Of Eyes Allow me just a little self-congratulatory chest-beating. Four years ago I started writing a near-fiction thriller about the risks of swarms of UAVs in the wrong hands. Everyone I talked to back then (including my agent, alas) thought the subject was implausible, even silly. In the last month, the Stanford Law Review has wrung its hands about the “ethical argument pressed in favor of drone warfare,” while anti-genocide activists have called for the use of “Drones for Human Rights” in Syria and other troubled nations; the UK and France declared a drone alliance; and a new US law compels the FAA to allow police and commercial drones in American airspace, which may lead to “routine aerial surveillance of American life.” We’ve been reporting on UPenn’s amazing drone-swarm research (great title, John!) Terrified yet? Meanwhile, obviously, a lot of people aren’t happy about the notion of police drones – and would rather they be used by the Occupy movement or by livestreaming media.
Defining the Singularity Q: So you mentioned that there is no widely accepted view of what the Singularity is and what exactly is going to happen, is that correct? That’s correct, there is very little continuity regarding what exactly the term “Singularity” refers to. A brilliant AI researcher by the name of Eliezer Yudkowky has dissected and categorized these beliefs into three schools of thought: the Event Horizon Thesis, the Intelligence Explosion Thesis, and finally the Accelerating Change Thesis. Q: Well which school did Vernor Vinge fall into when he originally coined the term “Singularity”? He would fall under the Event Horizon school of thought. Now this could occur through either artificial intelligence or purely bio-hacking, but whatever occurs will allow us to create/obtain an intelligence that is greater than ours on a trans-species scale (think the difference between us and chimpanzees). Learn More Q: Could you provide me with an example? Now do you see what I mean by feedback cycle? Q: Yup, got it.
Class 17 - Deep... Peter Thiel’s CS183: Startup - Class 17 - Deep Thought He is an essay version of class notes from Class 17 of CS183: Startup. Errors and omissions are mine. Three guests joined the class for a conversation after Peter’s remarks: D. Credit for good stuff goes to them and Peter. Class 17 Notes Essay—Deep Thought I. On the surface, we tend to think of people as a very diverse set. By contrast, we tend to view computers as being very alike. There are many ways that intelligence can be described and organized. But AI has much larger range than all naturally possible things. So AI is a very large space—so large that people’s normal intuitions about its size are often off base by orders of magnitude. One of the big questions in AI is exactly how smart it can possibly get. We tend to think of AI as being marginally smarter than an Einstein. A future with artificial intelligence would be so unrecognizable that it would unlike any other future. II. There are two basic paradigms. III. A. B. C. D. IV.
Introducing the Singularity Q: So what is this “Technological Singularity” I keep hearing about? In the broadest sense it refers to “an event or phase brought about by technology that will radically change human civilization, and perhaps even human nature itself before the middle of the 21st century.”1 Think of it as the “tipping point” where the accelerating pace of machines outrun all human capabilities and result in a smarter-than-human intelligence. Q: Seriously? Yes. Q: Sounds like something out of a sci-fi novel… Well the term “technological singularity” was coined by Vernor Vinge, a professor of Mathematics who originally used the term in one of his sci-fi novels. In it, he writes: “Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Learn More His use of the term “singularity” stemmed from a mathematical concept where there exists a point at which output is not defined and expected rules break down. Vinge himself thought the Singularity could occur in four ways: 1. “1. 2.
Extinction Timeline: what will disappear from our lives before 2050 When people talk about the future, they usually point to all the new things that will come to pass. However the evolution of human society is as much about old things disappearing as new things appearing. This means it is particularly useful to consider everything in our lives that is likely to become extinct. Below is the Extinction Timeline created jointly by What’s Next and Future Exploration Network – click on the image for the detailed timeline as a pdf (1.2MB). For those who want a quick summary of a few of the things that we anticipate will become extinct in coming years: 2009: Mending things 2014: Getting lost 2016: Retirement 2019: Libraries 2020: Copyright 2022: Blogging, Speleeng, The Maldives 2030: Keys 2033: Coins 2036: Petrol engined vehicles 2037: Glaciers 2038: Peace & Quiet 2049: Physical newspapers, Google Beyond 2050: Uglyness, Nation States, Death Trend map 2007+ and Nowandnext.com’s Innovation Timeline 1900- 2050: And of course, please don’t take this too seriously :-).
Singularity University’s GSP Class of 2014 Blasts Off to the Future Last week, Singularity University hosted the Closing Ceremony of its 2014 Graduate Studies Program, the pinnacle of an annual program that brought 80 entrepreneurs and visionaries from 35 countries to Silicon Valley for an intense 10-week crash course on exponential technologies and global grand challenges. Now in its sixth year, the event was a celebration of the participants’ commitment to solving the world’s greatest challenges, culminating in 21 team projects sure to produce viable companies that will positively impact a billion people worldwide. I had the opportunity to attend this sold-out event at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, which showcased the collective talents of the participants along with the dedication of all involved in making this year’s GSP a success. He added, “That’s what makes this institution special. I don’t know of many places in the world where that is the basic, fundamental premise.”
Infinity Point Will Arrive by 2035 Latest Eray Ozkural December 23, 2013 During writing a paper for the 100 Year Starship Symposium, I wished to convince the starship designers that they should acknowledge the dynamics of high-technology economy, which may be crucial for interstellar missions. Infinity Point was the original name for the hypothetical event when almost boundless amount of intelligence would be available in Solomonoff's original research in 1985 (1), who is also the founder of mathematical Artificial Intelligence (AI) field. The original theory arrives at the Infinity Point conclusion by making a few simple mathematical assumptions, and solving a system of equations. Computer Science (CS) community size ~ improvement in computing technologyCS community size ~ rate of log of computing efficiencyFixed amount of money is invested in AI every year To remind Moore's Law, well, it is: "number of transistors placed on a microprocessor at a fixed cost doubles every two years" as originally conceived. . References:
The Coming Technological Singularity ==================================================================== The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era Vernor Vinge Department of Mathematical Sciences San Diego State University (c) 1993 by Vernor Vinge (Verbatim copying/translation and distribution of this entire article is permitted in any medium, provided this notice is preserved.) This article was for the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993. It is also retrievable from the NASA technical reports server as part of NASA CP-10129. A slightly changed version appeared in the Winter 1993 issue of _Whole Earth Review_. Abstract Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence.
ECCO Home | ecco.vub.ac.be Accelerating change In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological (and sometimes social and cultural) progress throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future. While many have suggested accelerating change, the popularity of this theory in modern times is closely associated with various advocates of the technological singularity, such as Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil. Early theories In 1938, Buckminster Fuller introduced the word ephemeralization to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of industrial development. In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition. In 1958, Stanislaw Ulam wrote in reference to a conversation with John von Neumann: Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population
The lead up to the Singularity The future of technology will "pale" the previous 20 years