The best visuals to explain the Singularity to senior executives Tomorrow morning I’m doing a presentation to the top executive team of a very large organization on the next 20 years. Most of what I will cover will be general societal, business and technological drivers as well as specific strategic issues driving their business. However as part of stretching their thinking I’ll also speak a about the Singularity. As such I’ve been trying to find one good image to introduce my explanation, however I haven’t been able to find one which is quite right for the purpose. Ray Kurzweil’s Six Epochs diagram below is great and the one I’ll probably end up using, however it is a bit too over-the-top for most senior executives. Source: Ray Kurzweil, Applied Abstractions The chart below from Hans Moravec showing how exponential growth of computing power will allow machines to match human intellectual capabilities is excellent, but it is seriously out of date. Source: Hans Moravec, When will computer hardware match the human brain? Source: Ray Kurzweil, Tropophilia
ECCO Home | ecco.vub.ac.be Technological Singularity The technological singularity is the hypothesis that accelerating progress in technologies will cause a runaway effect wherein artificial intelligence will exceed human intellectual capacity and control, thus radically changing civilization in an event called the singularity. Because the capabilities of such an intelligence may be impossible for a human to comprehend, the technological singularity is an occurrence beyond which events may become unpredictable, unfavorable, or even unfathomable. The first use of the term "singularity" in this context was by mathematician John von Neumann. Proponents of the singularity typically postulate an "intelligence explosion", where superintelligences design successive generations of increasingly powerful minds, that might occur very quickly and might not stop until the agent's cognitive abilities greatly surpass that of any human. Basic concepts Superintelligence Non-AI singularity Intelligence explosion Exponential growth Plausibility
The lead up to the Singularity The Singularity is closer than it appears! Published on Mar 7, 2014 - Socrates of Singularity 1 on 1 sits down with William Hertling to talk about the technological singularity and AI. William Hertling is a rather recent science fiction discovery of mine and the author of award-winning novels Avogadro Corp: The Singularity Is Closer Than It Appears, A.I. Apocalypse, and The Last Firewall. William has written several plausible scenarios for the technological singularity that were so engaging and compelling that, as soon as I finished his first book, I could not help it but go ahead and read the next one too. And so I was very happy to get an opportunity and interview Hertling on my Singularity 1 on 1 podcast. Podcast: Play in new window | Download This is the second out of a series of 3 sci fi round-table interviews with Ramez Naam, William Hertling and Greg Bear that I did last November in Seattle. (You can listen to/download the audio file above or watch the video interview in full. Who is William Hertling? , A.I. . Listen/View
The Hivemind Singularity - Alan Jacobs In a near-future science fiction novel, human intelligence evolves into a hivemind that makes people the violent cells of a collective being. Slime mold network formation (Science). New Model Army, a 2010 novel by the English writer Adam Roberts, concerns itself with many things: the intimacy shared by soldiers at war, the motivating powers of memory and love, the rival merits of hierarchical and anarchic social structures, the legitimacy of the polity known as Great Britain, the question of European identity. Also giants. The title New Model Army derives from the English Civil War in the mid-seventeenth century, when Oliver Cromwell led armies raised by Parliament against supporters of King Charles. With this background in mind, Adam Roberts asks us to imagine a near future when electronic communications technologies enable groups of people to communicate with one another instantaneously, and on secure private networks invulnerable, or nearly so, to outside snooping.
The future of technology will "pale" the previous 20 years Extinction Timeline: what will disappear from our lives before 2050 When people talk about the future, they usually point to all the new things that will come to pass. However the evolution of human society is as much about old things disappearing as new things appearing. This means it is particularly useful to consider everything in our lives that is likely to become extinct. Below is the Extinction Timeline created jointly by What’s Next and Future Exploration Network – click on the image for the detailed timeline as a pdf (1.2MB). For those who want a quick summary of a few of the things that we anticipate will become extinct in coming years: 2009: Mending things 2014: Getting lost 2016: Retirement 2019: Libraries 2020: Copyright 2022: Blogging, Speleeng, The Maldives 2030: Keys 2033: Coins 2036: Petrol engined vehicles 2037: Glaciers 2038: Peace & Quiet 2049: Physical newspapers, Google Beyond 2050: Uglyness, Nation States, Death Trend map 2007+ and Nowandnext.com’s Innovation Timeline 1900- 2050: And of course, please don’t take this too seriously :-).
Accelerating change In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological (and sometimes social and cultural) progress throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future. While many have suggested accelerating change, the popularity of this theory in modern times is closely associated with various advocates of the technological singularity, such as Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil. Early theories In 1938, Buckminster Fuller introduced the word ephemeralization to describe the trends of "doing more with less" in chemistry, health and other areas of industrial development. In 1946, Fuller published a chart of the discoveries of the chemical elements over time to highlight the development of accelerating acceleration in human knowledge acquisition. In 1958, Stanislaw Ulam wrote in reference to a conversation with John von Neumann: Mass use of inventions: Years until use by a quarter of US population
Class 17 - Deep... Peter Thiel’s CS183: Startup - Class 17 - Deep Thought He is an essay version of class notes from Class 17 of CS183: Startup. Errors and omissions are mine. Three guests joined the class for a conversation after Peter’s remarks: D. Credit for good stuff goes to them and Peter. Class 17 Notes Essay—Deep Thought I. On the surface, we tend to think of people as a very diverse set. By contrast, we tend to view computers as being very alike. There are many ways that intelligence can be described and organized. But AI has much larger range than all naturally possible things. So AI is a very large space—so large that people’s normal intuitions about its size are often off base by orders of magnitude. One of the big questions in AI is exactly how smart it can possibly get. We tend to think of AI as being marginally smarter than an Einstein. A future with artificial intelligence would be so unrecognizable that it would unlike any other future. II. There are two basic paradigms. III. A. B. C. D. IV.
The Coming Technological Singularity ==================================================================== The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era Vernor Vinge Department of Mathematical Sciences San Diego State University (c) 1993 by Vernor Vinge (Verbatim copying/translation and distribution of this entire article is permitted in any medium, provided this notice is preserved.) This article was for the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993. It is also retrievable from the NASA technical reports server as part of NASA CP-10129. A slightly changed version appeared in the Winter 1993 issue of _Whole Earth Review_. Abstract Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
I Have Seen The Future, And Its Sky Is Full Of Eyes Allow me just a little self-congratulatory chest-beating. Four years ago I started writing a near-fiction thriller about the risks of swarms of UAVs in the wrong hands. Everyone I talked to back then (including my agent, alas) thought the subject was implausible, even silly. Well, it’s not like I’m the next Vernor Vinge — it always seemed like a pretty blatantly obvious prediction to me — but I am pleased to see that drones and drone swarms have finally become the flavor of the month. In the last month, the Stanford Law Review has wrung its hands about the “ethical argument pressed in favor of drone warfare,” while anti-genocide activists have called for the use of “Drones for Human Rights” in Syria and other troubled nations; the UK and France declared a drone alliance; and a new US law compels the FAA to allow police and commercial drones in American airspace, which may lead to “routine aerial surveillance of American life.” Terrified yet? Image credit: Bee swarm, doubleagent, Flickr.
Singularity University’s GSP Class of 2014 Blasts Off to the Future Last week, Singularity University hosted the Closing Ceremony of its 2014 Graduate Studies Program, the pinnacle of an annual program that brought 80 entrepreneurs and visionaries from 35 countries to Silicon Valley for an intense 10-week crash course on exponential technologies and global grand challenges. Now in its sixth year, the event was a celebration of the participants’ commitment to solving the world’s greatest challenges, culminating in 21 team projects sure to produce viable companies that will positively impact a billion people worldwide. I had the opportunity to attend this sold-out event at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, which showcased the collective talents of the participants along with the dedication of all involved in making this year’s GSP a success. He added, “That’s what makes this institution special. I don’t know of many places in the world where that is the basic, fundamental premise.”