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10 Big Mistakes People Make in Thinking About the Future

10 Big Mistakes People Make in Thinking About the Future
Photo Credit: Frank Peters Being a working futurist means that I think a lot about how people think about the future. It also means spending a lot of time with people who are also thinking about their own futures. Typically, this involves a dialogue between three distinct groups. First, there's usually a small handful of very foresighted people, who are aware of their own blind spots and biases, and who are eager and open about the prospect of soaring into a wild blue sky to gather a lot of exciting new information. Second, there's a larger group of people who don't usually think at 50,000 feet -- but are willing to go there if they're with people they trust. And then there's a third small group that's very resistant to the idea that anything could or should change. 1. But the gotcha is: research by academic futurists has found that this expected future really isn't the most likely outcome at all. It's good to know what your expected future is. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

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Related:  FuturologyStrategic Thinkingcognitive bias and future thinkingIdeas 2

Outline of futures studies The following outline is presented as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies – study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures, and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. It seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. What is futures studies?[edit] Futures studies can be described as all of the following: a branch of science[citation needed] – a branch of social science –a parallel discipline to history – the field of history concerns the discovery, collection, organization, and presentation of information about past events. Management planning and the future Managers who think about the future - which should, of course, mean all managers - are accustomed to approaching the task with logical, careful analysis of what (or so they think) is most likely to happen. Extrapolation of the past into the future is the most common exercise, although there’s no logical reason why past trends should continue. But it sounds so reasonable. In fact, though, you can make an irresistible case for being unreasonable, abandoning the logical and likely for the deliberate pursuit of the irrational and unpredictable.

cognitive biases in futurist thinking Hedgehog and fox finger puppetsby Linda Brown (Etsy shop owner) “No serious futurist deals in predictions”. These are the famous words of Alvin Toffler in his seminal book Future Shock from 1971. Instead, future studies usually describe a number of plausible futures pointing at different directions for the world or society. Open Thinking Wiki Exploring Web 2.0: Blogs, Wikis, Podcasts & Social Sharing MySpace, IM and Other Social Networks The Impact of Digital Literacies on Education

Futurologists links Ignore this box please. Add to Browser Install Firefox add-on More ways to add DDG Strategic Thinking Exercises – More than 200 Strategic Planning Questions Productive strategic thinking exercises are at the heart of The Brainzooming Group methodology. Great brainstorming and strategic planning questions encourage and allow people to talk about what they know including factual information, personal perspectives, and their views of the future. The Value of Strategic Thinking Exercises I tell people who ask about how we developed The Brainzooming Group methodology that a big motivator was business people I worked with who didn’t know how to fill out strategic planning templates and worksheets. They did, however, know a lot about the businesses, customers, and markets they served.

Why do we assume the future will be short? – John Schellenberg In Time’s Arrow, Time’s Cycle (1987), Stephen Jay Gould tells the story of one John Playfair, who in 1788 accompanied the great British geologist James Hutton to see an ‘unconformity’ at Siccar Point in Scotland. With the help of this geological visual – an ancient erosion surface dividing two layers of rock, one gently sloping, the other vertically tilted – Hutton explained to Playfair that the Earth is a machine ceaselessly repeating a cycle of erosion, deposition, and uplift. Playfair later wrote: ‘The impression made will not easily be forgotten... Revolutions still more remote appeared in the distance of this extraordinary perspective. The mind seemed to grow giddy by looking so far into the abyss of time.’

The Myth Of AI That mythology, in turn, has spurred a reactionary, perpetual spasm from people who are horrified by what they hear. You'll have a figure say, "The computers will take over the Earth, but that's a good thing, because people had their chance and now we should give it to the machines." Then you'll have other people say, "Oh, that's horrible, we must stop these computers."

Futuring: The Exploration of the Future Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish. WFS. 2004. 313 pages. Paperback. ISBN 0-930242-61-0. Strategic Planning Benefits – 18 Ways Strategic Planning Helps Your Organization I’ll admit to being hopeful about the strategic planning benefits an organization can realize. But not from the typical strategic planning – the kind with too many boring meetings, too few real insights, lots of forms to fill out, takes forever with little real world impact. Instead, my hopefulness is tied to the type of strategic planning we facilitate with: When it comes to that kind of strategic planning, there are plenty of benefits for an organization.

Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning When scenario planning has worked well, it has proved enormously useful to a wide range of organizations as a tool for making decisions under uncertainty. First popularized by Shell in the early 1970s, the approach should be a natural complement to other ways of developing strategy—especially when executives are as concerned about geopolitical dynamics as many are today. It would probably be more widely used if it hadn’t been such a disappointment to many executives. In fact, 40 percent of those we surveyed in 2013 described it as having little effectiveness. Podcast Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning

Reimagining the HE curriculum for the 21st century Global social impact is a key feature of the evolution of higher education. Universities have always arguably been both national and international – located in a nation state, but connected in various ways with international communities. But the world of the 21st century is a very different one from that of the 11th century, when the modern university began to evolve in Bologna.

THE FUTURIST Magazine Releases Its Top 10 Forecasts for 2013 and Beyond Each year since 1985, the editors of THE FUTURIST have selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts appearing in the magazine to go into our annual Outlook report. Over the years, Outlook has spotlighted the emergence of such epochal developments as the Internet, virtual reality, the 2008 financial crisis and the end of the Cold War. But these forecasts are meant as conversation starters, not absolute predictions about the future.

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