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The best visuals to explain the Singularity to senior executives

The best visuals to explain the Singularity to senior executives
Tomorrow morning I’m doing a presentation to the top executive team of a very large organization on the next 20 years. Most of what I will cover will be general societal, business and technological drivers as well as specific strategic issues driving their business. However as part of stretching their thinking I’ll also speak a about the Singularity. As such I’ve been trying to find one good image to introduce my explanation, however I haven’t been able to find one which is quite right for the purpose. Ray Kurzweil’s Six Epochs diagram below is great and the one I’ll probably end up using, however it is a bit too over-the-top for most senior executives. Source: Ray Kurzweil, Applied Abstractions The chart below from Hans Moravec showing how exponential growth of computing power will allow machines to match human intellectual capabilities is excellent, but it is seriously out of date. Source: Hans Moravec, When will computer hardware match the human brain? Source: Ray Kurzweil, Tropophilia Related:  Exponential Change - Technological SingularityA I / Robotics et al.value network

The Hivemind Singularity - Alan Jacobs In a near-future science fiction novel, human intelligence evolves into a hivemind that makes people the violent cells of a collective being. Slime mold network formation (Science). New Model Army, a 2010 novel by the English writer Adam Roberts, concerns itself with many things: the intimacy shared by soldiers at war, the motivating powers of memory and love, the rival merits of hierarchical and anarchic social structures, the legitimacy of the polity known as Great Britain, the question of European identity. Also giants. (Roberts has a history of interest in giants -- they feature prominently in his imaginative and highly excremental novel Swiftly -- and, more generally, in the scale of being: how very small, very large, and in-between-sized beings experience the world differently. The title New Model Army derives from the English Civil War in the mid-seventeenth century, when Oliver Cromwell led armies raised by Parliament against supporters of King Charles.

Technological Singularity The technological singularity is the hypothesis that accelerating progress in technologies will cause a runaway effect wherein artificial intelligence will exceed human intellectual capacity and control, thus radically changing civilization in an event called the singularity.[1] Because the capabilities of such an intelligence may be impossible for a human to comprehend, the technological singularity is an occurrence beyond which events may become unpredictable, unfavorable, or even unfathomable.[2] The first use of the term "singularity" in this context was by mathematician John von Neumann. Proponents of the singularity typically postulate an "intelligence explosion",[5][6] where superintelligences design successive generations of increasingly powerful minds, that might occur very quickly and might not stop until the agent's cognitive abilities greatly surpass that of any human. Basic concepts Superintelligence Non-AI singularity Intelligence explosion Exponential growth Plausibility

The lead up to the Singularity Is your CEO worth his (her) pay? The Pricing and Valuing of Top Managers! It is true, as many others have pointed out, that CEO pay has been increasing at rates far higher than pay for those lower in the pay scale, for much of the last three decades. In the graph below, I look at the evolution of average CEO pay since 1992, broken down broadly by sector: Since 1992, the annual compounded increase in CEO pay of 7.64% has been higher than the growth in revenues, earnings or other profitability measures. Of all the drivers of CEO pay changes over time, none seems to be as powerful as stock market performance, as is clear in this graph going back further to 1965: While there has been much talk about the ratio of CEO pay to that of an average employee, and that ratio has indisputably jumped over the last three decades, I found t, for S&P 500 companies, using 2012-2014 data to be a more useful statistic. Determinants of CEO Pay Not only is CEO pay high, but it varies across time and across companies. A Framework for analyzing the value added by a CEO The End Game

Internet Traffic is now 51% Non-Human So you thought the Internet was made by and for people? Think again. A study by Incapsula, a provider of cloud-based security for web sites (mind you where this data comes from), concludes that 51% of all Internet traffic is generated by non-human sources such as hacking software, scrapers and automated spam mechanisms. While 20% of the 51% non-human traffic is’ good’, the 31% majority of this non-human traffic is potentially malicious. The study is based on data collected from 1,000 websites that utilize Incapsula’s services, and it determined that just 49% of Web traffic is human browsing. 20% is benign non-human search engine traffic, but 31% of all Internet traffic is tied to malicious activities. 19% is from ” ‘spies’ collecting competitive intelligence,” 5% is from automated hacking tools seeking out vulnerabilities, 5% is from scrapers and 2% is from content spammers. Presumably these numbers will only rise. Thanks Bruce.

Infinity Point Will Arrive by 2035 Latest Eray Ozkural December 23, 2013 During writing a paper for the 100 Year Starship Symposium, I wished to convince the starship designers that they should acknowledge the dynamics of high-technology economy, which may be crucial for interstellar missions. Thus motivated, I have made a new calculation regarding infinity point, also known as the singularity. According to this most recent revision of the theory of infinity point, it turns out that we should expect Infinity Point by 2035 in the worst case. Infinity Point was the original name for the hypothetical event when almost boundless amount of intelligence would be available in Solomonoff's original research in 1985 (1), who is also the founder of mathematical Artificial Intelligence (AI) field. The original theory arrives at the Infinity Point conclusion by making a few simple mathematical assumptions, and solving a system of equations. Therefore, I updated the Infinity Point Hypothesis, using Koomey's Law instead in two papers. .

ECCO Home | ecco.vub.ac.be The CEDA Community model Pt.2: ‘Engagement’ & ‘Permission’ in Social Learning I’ve been developing the CEDA model this week, looking at how we develop vibrant Social Learning communities. It has two purposes: firstly, to be used in strategy, to help shape our organisational approach and, secondly, to diagnose the health of a functioning community, to understand what’s working and what may need support. There are four parts to the model (you can read all about it here), ‘Curation‘, ‘Engagement‘, ‘Debate‘ and ‘Application‘. Four things we need to consider. But there are another four parts of the model to consider: either amplifying or confounding factors. For ‘Curation‘, we look at ‘Technology‘. Over the next few days, we will explore the other factors: for ‘Debate‘, it’s about ‘Trust‘, do individuals believe that they will be treated fairly? These are by far not the only factors at play, but i wanted to gather together (curate) a structured framework that organisations can work around. In the second stage of the CEDA model we explore ‘engagement’ and ‘permission’.

Coastline paradox An example of the coastline paradox. If the coastline of Great Britain is measured using units 100 km (62 mi) long, then the length of the coastline is approximately 2,800 km (1,700 mi). With 50 km (31 mi) units, the total length is approximately 3,400 km (2,100 mi), approximately 600 km (370 mi) longer. The coastline paradox is the counterintuitive observation that the coastline of a landmass does not have a well-defined length. More concretely, the length of the coastline depends on the method used to measure it. Mathematical aspects[edit] The basic concept of length originates from Euclidean distance. Using a few straight lines to approximate the length of a curve will produce a low estimate. However, not all curves can be measured in this way. This Sierpiński curve, which repeats the same pattern on a smaller and smaller scale, continues to increase in length. Practical[edit] See also[edit] Notes[edit] Bibliography[edit] Post, David G., and Michael Eisen. External links[edit]

The Singularity is closer than it appears! Published on Mar 7, 2014 - Socrates of Singularity 1 on 1 sits down with William Hertling to talk about the technological singularity and AI. William Hertling is a rather recent science fiction discovery of mine and the author of award-winning novels Avogadro Corp: The Singularity Is Closer Than It Appears, A.I. Apocalypse, and The Last Firewall. Podcast: Play in new window | Download This is the second out of a series of 3 sci fi round-table interviews with Ramez Naam, William Hertling and Greg Bear that I did last November in Seattle. (You can listen to/download the audio file above or watch the video interview in full. Who is William Hertling? William Hertling is the author of the award-winning novels Avogadro Corp: The Singularity Is Closer Than It Appears , A.I. , and The Last Firewall . Avogadro Corp won Forewords Review Science Fiction Book of the Year and A.I. He’s been influenced by writers such as William Gibson, Charles Stross, Cory Doctorow, and Walter Jon Williams. Listen/View

Extinction Timeline: what will disappear from our lives before 2050 When people talk about the future, they usually point to all the new things that will come to pass. However the evolution of human society is as much about old things disappearing as new things appearing. This means it is particularly useful to consider everything in our lives that is likely to become extinct. Below is the Extinction Timeline created jointly by What’s Next and Future Exploration Network – click on the image for the detailed timeline as a pdf (1.2MB). For those who want a quick summary of a few of the things that we anticipate will become extinct in coming years: 2009: Mending things 2014: Getting lost 2016: Retirement 2019: Libraries 2020: Copyright 2022: Blogging, Speleeng, The Maldives 2030: Keys 2033: Coins 2036: Petrol engined vehicles 2037: Glaciers 2038: Peace & Quiet 2049: Physical newspapers, Google Beyond 2050: Uglyness, Nation States, Death Trend map 2007+ and Nowandnext.com’s Innovation Timeline 1900- 2050: And of course, please don’t take this too seriously :-).

Ethan Roland: The 8 Forms of Capital Martenson: Welcome to this Peak Prosperity podcast. I am your host Chris Martenson. Do you ever wonder about resiliency and how to increase it in your life? We recently began using a new model for adding depth and structure to the way we think about building and the deploying capital, and it comes to us from a couple of practitioners from the field of permaculture. Roland: Great to be on. Martenson: So, we have not had a chance to talk since we first used your material at the Rowe Seminar this year and I have to tell you, based on the feedback forms, it was a huge hit. Roland: Capital is this thing…it was almost like a bad word that was around when I was growing up. So we just began to think about and see—what else were we exchanging? As we began to see these flow, we noticed that everybody really seems to focus on financial capital, as if it is the only form, but it turns out that we cannot eat money—even gold. Martenson: Fascinating. Martenson: Oh, absolutely. Martenson: Birth?

The Singularity Is Near The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology is a 2005 non-fiction book about artificial intelligence and the future of humanity by inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil. This is his first book to embrace the Singularity as a term, but the ideas contained within are derived from his previous books, the The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999) and The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990). Kurzweil describes his law of accelerating returns which predicts an exponential increase in technologies like computers, genetics, nanotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence. He says this will lead to a technological singularity in the year 2045, a point where progress is so rapid it outstrips humans' ability to comprehend it. Irreversibly transformed, people will augment their minds and bodies with genetic alterations, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence. Content[edit] Exponential growth[edit] Computational capacity[edit] Moore's Law The brain[edit] Exponential Growth of Computing

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